financial_innovation_Tufano
写老师的作文300字-七夕相亲会
Financial Innovation
Peter
Tufano*
Revised: June 16, 2002
Peter Tufano
Sylvan C. Coleman Professor
of Financial Management
Harvard Business
School
Soldiers Field
Boston,
Massachusetts 02163
ptufano@
Abstract: This essay surveys the
literature on financial innovation from a wide
variety
of disciplines: financial economics,
history, law, and industrial organization. I
define
financial innovation, discuss problems
with creating taxonomies of financial innovation,
and outline the explanations given for the
extensive amount of financial innovation we
observe both today and in history. I also
review work that studies the identity of
innovators, the process of diffusion of
innovation, the private benefits of innovation and
the social welfare implications of innovation.
* This paper is to
appear as a chapter in The Handbook of the
Economics of Finance
(North Holland), edited
by George Constantinides, Milt Harris and René
Stulz. I would
like to thank René Stulz, Josh
Lerner and Belen Villalonga for their very helpful
comments, and Scott Sinawi for his able
research assistance. This work was funded by
the Division of Research of the Harvard
Business School.
1
1.
Introduction
In Merton Miller’s (1986) view on
financial innovation, the period from the
mid-
1960s to mid-1980s was a unique one in
American financial history. Looking backward,
he rhetorically asked, “Can any twenty-year
period in recorded history have witnessed
even
a tenth as much (financial innovation)?” Looking
forward, he asked the question,
“Financial
innovation: Is the great wave subsiding?”
Answering “No” to the first
question and “Yes”
to the second, he concluded that the period was an
extraordinary one
in the history of financial
innovation. However, with 20-20 hindsight, we
can disagree
with his assessment and answer
the two questions somewhat differently.
History shows that financial innovation has
been a critical and persistent part of
the
economic landscape over the past few centuries In
the years since Miller’s 1986
piece, financial
markets have continued to produce a multitude of
new products,
including many new forms of
derivatives, alternative risk transfer products,
exchange
traded funds, and variants of tax-
deductible equity. A longer view suggests that
financial
innovation—like innovation elsewhere
in business—is an ongoing process whereby
private parties experiment to try to
differentiate their products and services,
responding to
both sudden and gradual changes
in the economy. Surely, innovation ebbs and flows
with some periods exhibiting bursts of
activity and others witnessing a slackening or
even
backlash.
1
However, when seen
from a distance, the Schumpeterian process of
1
For example, there have been numerous
periods throughout the past centuries in which
innovation
flourished, failures took place,
and public and regulatory sentiment led to
temporary anti-innovation
feelings. See
Chancellor (1999). More recently, the failure of
Enron has probably slowed the innovation
of
new forms of special purpose entities and off-
balance sheet financing, although this chilling
effect is
unlikely to be permanent.
2
innovation—in this instance, financial
innovation—is a regular ongoing part of a
profit-
maximizing economy.
In this review
piece, I summarize the existing research on
financial innovation
and highlight the many
areas where our knowledge is still very
incomplete. The existing
work, while fairly
modest in scope relative to others topics covered
in this volume, is
spread over a wide range of
fields: general equilibrium analyses of the role
for financial
innovation; thought pieces
proposing the reasons for innovation; legal and
policy
analyses of tax rules, regulation and
innovation; studies of financial innovation in the
industrial organization literature; clinical
studies of individual innovations: and a handful
of empirical studies of the process of
innovation.
2
A number of comprehensive
books on
the subject have been written,
including Allen and Gale’s (1994) comprehensive
overview, and entire issues of journals have
been devoted to the topic (e.g., Journal of
Economic Theory (1995, Volume 65.)) The topic
of financial innovation has been
addressed by
a number of AFA presidents, including Merton,
Miller, Ross and Van
Horne, some in their
Presidential Addresses. My goals in this short
overview are to cover
the breadth of the
existing literature briefly, rather than treat one
sub-area in detail, and to
highlight open
issues that researchers may find suitable for
future work.
This piece is divided into five
sections. The first defines financial innovation
and
discusses the difficulty of creating a
taxonomy of financial innovations. The second
section discusses the explanations advanced
for financial innovation. The third section
discusses the identity of innovators. The
fourth section discusses the implications of
2
In addition, there are a variety of a
large number of articles in the financial press as
well as popular
business books addressing the
topic of financial innovation, typically from the
perspective of how
businesses can capitalize
on them. For examples of popular book-length
discussions of financial
innovation, see
Geanuracos and Millar (1991), Walmsley (1988) and
Crawford and Sen (1996).
3
financial innovation on private and
social wealth. The final section concludes with a
brief discussion of new means of protecting
the intellectual property of innovators and a
review of the open issues in this field.
2. What is financial innovation?
Much of
the theoretical and empirical work in financial
economics considers a
highly stylized world in
which there are few types of securities (debt and
equity, perhaps)
and maybe a handful of simple
financial institutions (banks or exchanges.)
However, in
reality there is a vast range of
different financial products, many different types
of
financial institutions and a variety of
processes that these institutions employ to do
business. The literature on financial
innovation attempts to catalog some of this
variety,
describe the reasons why we observe
an ever-increasing diversity of practice, and
assess
the private and social implications of
this activity.
“Innovate” is defined in
Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary as “to introduce
as or as
if new,”
3
with the root of
the word deriving from the Latin word “novus” or
new.
Economists use the word “innovation” in
an expansive fashion to describe shocks to the
economy (e.g., “monetary policy innovations”)
as well as the responses to these shocks
(e.g., Eurodeposits). Broadly speaking,
financial innovation is the act of creating and
then popularizing new financial instruments as
well as new financial technologies,
institutions and markets. The “innovations”
are sometimes divided into product or
process
innovation, with product innovations exemplified
by new derivative contracts,
new corporate
securities or new forms of pooled investment
products, and process
improvements typified by
new means of distributing securities, processing
transactions,
4
or pricing
transactions. In practice, even this innocuous
differentiation is not clear, as
process and
product innovation is often linked. The processes
by which one creates a
new index linked to
college costs or invests to produce returns that
replicate this index
are hard to separate from
a new indexed investment product that tries to
help parents save
to pay for their children’s
education.
Innovation includes the acts of
invention (the ongoing research and development
function) and diffusion (or adoption) of new
products, services or ideas.
4
Invention
is
probably an overly generous term, in that
most innovations are evolutionary adaptations
of prior products. The lexicographer’s
addition of the phrase “as if” to the definition
of
innovation reflects one difficulty in any
study of this phenomenon—almost nothing is
completely “new” and the degree of newness or
novelty is inherently subjective.
5
(Patent
examiners charged with judging the novelty of
inventions face this challenge routinely.)
One sub-branch of the literature on financial
innovation has created lists or
taxonomies of
innovations. Given the breadth of possible
innovations, this work tends to
specialize in
particular areas, such as securities innovations.
For example, Finnerty
(1988, 1992, 2001) has
created a list of over 60 securities innovations,
organized by
broad type of instrument (debt,
preferred stock, convertible securities, and
common
equities) and by the function served
(reallocating risk, increasing liquidity, reducing
agency costs, reducing transactions costs,
reducing taxes or circumventing regulatory
constraints.) One investment bank published
a guide to innovative international debt
securities in the mid-1980s. This 64-page
booklet did not describe individual innovations,
3
Webster’s Ninth New Collegiate
Dictionary (1988).
4
See Rogers (1983) for
a discussion of the adoption of innovations.
5
but rather categorized the
characteristics of the innovative securities along
five
dimensions (coupon, life, redemption
proceeds, issue price and warrants.)
6
Neither innovation nor the impulse to
categorize it are new activities: The 1934
edition of the investing classic, Benjamin
Graham and David Dodd's Security Analysis
included an appendix entitled
Normal
Patterns,
In assembling the material presented
herewith it has not been our purpose to
present a complete list of all types of
securities which vary from the customary
contractual arrangements between the issuing
corporation and the holder. Such a
list would
extend the size of this volume beyond reasonable
limits. We have,
however, attempted to give a
reasonably complete example of deviations from the
standard patterns.
In the following
17 pages, they described 258 securities. Put in
modern language, their
list included pay-in-
kind bonds, step-up bonds, putable bonds, bonds
with stock
dividends, zero coupon bonds,
inflation-indexed bonds, a variety of exotic
convertible
and exchangeable bonds, 23
different types of warrants, voting bonds, non-
voting shares,
and a host of other
instruments. Graham and Dodd’s list is not an
anomaly. A small
literature on the history of
financial innovation demonstrates that the
creation of new
financial products and
processes has been an ongoing part of economies
for at least the
past four centuries, if not
longer.
7
While many of these old
innovations sound quite new
even today, some
have become extinct. For example, the “Million
Adventure,” described
by Allen and Gale (1994,
p. 13) raised one million pounds in 1694. The
structure of this
“lottery loan” innovation
was a 16 year bond paying 10% with an added
bonus—a lottery
5
Scholars in Industrial Organization
sometimes differentiate between “drastic” and
“incremental”
innovations. Drastic
innovations bring costs to a level below the
corresponding monopoly price. See
Tirole
(1988, chapter 10).
6
Other useful lists
were drawn up by Tufano (1989, 1995), Matthews
(1994) and Silber (1975).
7
For extended
discussions, see Silber (1975), Allen and Gale
(1994, Chapter 2) and Tufano (1995, 1997).
6
ticket which gave the holder a chance
to share in an additional £40,000 per year for
each
of the next 16 years.
In preparing
this chapter, I asked my research assistant to
compile a complete list
of security
innovations so that I could update an estimate
from the mid-80s that showed
that 20% of all
new security issues used an “innovative”
structure.
8
One place to begin
this
exercise was Thompson Financial Securities Data
(former SDC), a data vendor that
tracks new
public offerings of securities. He provided me
with a list of 1,836 unique
“security codes”
used from the early 1980s through early 2001, each
purporting to be a
different type of security.
Some of the securities listed were nearly-
identical products
offered by banks trying to
differentiate their wares from those of their
competitors.
Others represented evolutionary
improvements on earlier products. Perhaps a few
were
truly novel. Nevertheless, the length of
the list represents a “normal” pattern of
financial
innovation, where a security is
created, but then modified (and improved) slightly
by
each successive bank that offers it to its
clients.
Even this list—if combed to
eliminate false innovation—would severely
underestimate the amount of financial
innovation, as it only includes corporate
securities.
It excludes the tremendous
innovation in exchange-traded derivatives, over-
the-counter
derivative contracts
9
(such as the credit derivatives, equity swaps,
weather derivatives
and exotic over-the-
counter options), new insurance contracts (such as
alternative risk
transfer contracts or
contingent equity contracts), and new investment
management
products (such as folioFN or
exchange traded funds.)
8
The original estimate comes form Tufano
(1989).
9
Duffie and Rahi (1995) cite the
Wall Street Journal (June 14, 1994), p. C1 as
stating there are over 1200
different types of
derivative securities in use, although these
journalistic calculations are somewhat suspect.
7
The many different “lists” of
financial innovations—even just security
innovations—demonstrate the difficulty in
categorizing new products. Lists organized
by product name (like SDC’s categorization)
tend to be uninformative, because firms use
names to differentiate similar products.
Lists by “traditional labels” (e.g., legal or
regulatory definitions of debt or equity,
etc.) tend to be problematic, as innovations often
intentionally span across different
traditional labels. Lists organized by product
feature
(e.g., maturity, redemption
provisions, etc.) provide a great deal of
information and
highlight the component parts
of each innovation, but do so at creating a
classification
system that has so many
dimensions as to be unmanageable.
The
alternative chosen by most academics writing about
innovation has been to
adopt a functional
approach to classifying products.
10
Rather than group products by
their names or
features, authors categorize them by the functions
they serve. Finnerty’s
taxonomy mentioned
above does this, as does The Bank for
International Settlements
(BIS, 1986). The
BIS discusses the problems with creating
taxonomies and concludes
that the best scheme
is a functional one. While there seems to be some
agreement that
the best categorization scheme
is a functional one, it is less clear how to
identify the
particular functions.
3.
Why do financial innovations arise? What function
do they serve?
If the world were free of all
“imperfections”—such as taxes, regulation,
information asymmetries, transaction costs,
and moral hazard—and if markets were
complete
in the sense that existing securities spanned all
states of nature, we could arrive
8
at an M&M-like corollary regarding
financial innovation. Financial innovations would
benefit neither private parties nor society
and would simply be neutral mutations.
11
Against this backdrop, a sizeable body of
literature attempts to understand how
various
“imperfections” (and changes in these
imperfections) stimulate financial
innovation.
These imperfections prevent participants in the
economy from efficiently
obtaining the
functions they need from the financial system.
Generally, authors establish
how financial
innovations are optimal responses to various basic
problem or
opportunities, such as incomplete
markets that prevent risk shifting or asymmetric
information. Some of these analyses are
“institution-free” in that they do not explicitly
consider the role of innovators in the
process, while other institutionally-grounded
explanations study the parts played by
financial institutions using innovation to
compete.
What functions do innovations help
us perform? Merton’s (1992) functional
decomposition identifies six functions
delivered by financial systems: (1) moving funds
across time and space; (2) the pooling of
funds; (3) managing risk; (4) extracting
information to support decision-making; (5)
addressing moral hazard and asymmetric
information problems; and (6) facilitating the
sale of purchase of goods and services
through
a payment system. Different writers use slightly
different lists of functions, but
there is
much overlap in these descriptions. For example,
Finnerty (1992) identifies a set
of functions,
two of which correspond closely to Merton’s
functions (reallocating risk
and reducing
agency costs), and a third (“increasing
liquidity”) which is an amalgam of
10
While various authors have proposed
functional classification schemes, the broader
notion of using
“function” as the critical
unit in understanding financial systems has been
advanced strongly by Merton
(1992), and is
developed in Crane et al. (1995).
11
While
the notion of neutral mutations has been long
recognized in evolution, Miller (1977) used the
term
to describe a variety of financial
decisions and financial innovations. While this
term is normally used as a
derogatory one,
Miller is careful to note that the existence of
seemingly neutral mutations can “permit the
9
Merton’s movement of funds and pooling
functions. The BIS (1986) has a slightly
different scheme to identify the functions
performed by innovation, focusing on the
transfer of risks (both price and credit), the
enhancement of liquidity, and the generation
of funds to support enterprises (through
credit and equity.) Each author strives to
describe the functions in a parsimonious
fashion, but it is probably fair to say that no
commonly accepted and unique taxonomy of
functions has been adopted. Even if it were
to exist, no functional scheme could avoid the
complication that a single innovation is
likely to address multiple functions. For
example, using Merton’s functional scheme,
asset securitization invokes at least three
functions: it pools various future promises,
modifies risk profiles through
diversification, and moves funds across time and
space.
If functions represent timeless
demands put upon financial systems, then why do we
observe innovation? Some authors adopt a
static framework, where no attempt is made
to
explain the timing of the innovation. Other
authors adopt a dynamic framework,
where
innovations reflect responses to changes in the
environment, and the timing of the
innovation
mirrors this change. My discussion below
summarizes most of the key
arguments, and uses
a combination of recent and historical examples to
illustrate the
points.
12
(1)
Innovation exists to complete inherently
incomplete markets. In an incomplete
market,
not all states of nature can be spanned, and as a
result, parties are not able to
move funds
freely across time and space, nor to manage risk.
Duffie and Rahi (1995),
in their introduction
to a special issue of the Journal of Economic
Theory on financial
market innovation and
security design, review the literature on market
incompleteness
adaptation to new conditions to take place
more quickly or surely” in response to real
changes in the
economy.
10
and innovation.
13
This
literature attempts to establish conditions under
which innovation
would occur in equilibrium.
In summarizing a wide range of the literature they
conclude:
At this early stage, while there are
several results providing conditions for the
existence of equilibrium with innovation, the
available theory has relatively few
normative
or predictive results. From a spanning point of
view, we can guess that
there are incentives
to set up markets for securities for which there
are no close
substitutes, and which may be
used to hedge substantive risks.
This
theoretical proposition is consistent with
evidence of the pattern of
innovation in
exchange-traded contracts documented by Black
(1986). She shows a
relationship between a
new contract’s viability (measured by its trading
volume) and its
ability to complete markets
(measured by its lack of correlation with large
but
uninsurable risks.) Grinblatt and
Longstaff (2000) study a different innovation
(Treasury
STRIPS or zero-coupon bonds). They
find that investors create new STRIPS primarily
to make markets more complete, a conclusion
drawn from the observation that STRIPS
are
created when it would be most difficult to
synthesize the discount bonds from existing
coupon instruments.
Allen and Gale (1988)
consider a particular form of market
incompleteness—in
the form of short sales
restrictions—as motivation for innovation by
parties seeking to
share risk. They show it
may be optimal for firms to offer multiple classes
of claims
(“breaking the firm into pieces”)
generating value from different investor
preferences and
needs (“selling the pieces to
the clientele that values it most.”)
Cloaked
in less academic language, the idea that
innovation typically address the
unmet
preferences or needs of particular clienteles is
reasonably well discussed in
business
practice. For example, one popular book
describing the derivatives activities at
12
Portions of this section are drawn from
Tufano (1992).
11
a major bank
(Partnoy (1997)) provides details on relatively
uncommon products
designed for a small number
of institutional investors.
(2) Innovation
persists to address inherent agency concerns and
information
asymmetries: Much of contracting
theory (or the security design literature)
explores how
contracts can be written to
better align the interests of different parties or
to force the
revelation of private information
by managers. This extensive literature has been
surveyed by Harris and Raviv (1989), and is
also covered in Allen and Gale (1994, pp.
140-147). Persistent conflicts of interest
between outside capital providers and
self-
interested managers, and asymmetric
information between informed insiders and
uniformed outsiders, leads to equilibria in
which firms issue a multiplicity of securities.
Most of this work deals with innovation in a
fairly limited sense, explaining the existence
of a few contracts like debt or equity, not
scores of different types of corporate securities.
However, Haugen and Senbett (1981) argue that
incorporating embedded options into
securities
can mitigate moral hazard problems. This motive
for innovation can possibly
explain the
embedded options in some innovative R&D financings
(for a case study of
these innovations, see
Lerner and Tufano (1993)
14
and for an
empirical analysis see
Beatty, Berger and
Magliolo (1995)). In these structures, an R&D
financing organization
is set up with separate
shareholders from the “parent,” which retains all
decision rights to
the day-to-day activities
of this separate organization. Attaching warrants
exerciseable
into the stock of the “parent” of
the R&D financing vehicles partially ameliorates
the
inherent conflicts of interest.
13
Duffie and Rahi (1995)’s survey
describes a unified modeling framework to study
the impact of
innovation on risk-sharing and
information aggregation.
14
This case
study and others mentioned here are also in Mason,
Merton, Perold and Tufano (1995)
12
Ross (1989) invokes agency issues to
explains some financial innovations. He
notes
that agency considerations make borrowing costly
or limited and, as a result,
individuals
contract with opaque financial institutions.
When a shock (such as a change
in taxes or
regulation) occurs, financial intermediaries may
find it efficient to sell off
low-grade
assets. Because outside investors cannot easily
assess the value of these
assets, the
institutions turn to investment banks to place
these securities with their
network of
clients. These investment banks innovate,
creating new pools of these low-
grade assets.
Agency considerations interact with marketing
costs to produce innovation.
Throughout
history, information asymmetries have prompted a
number of
innovations. Throughout much of
the nineteenth and early twentieth century, firms
disclosed very little credible financial
information. Over time, market forces and
governmental action materially increased the
quantity and quality—and thus lowered the
cost—of information about firms. Early
innovations tended to substitute for (or
economize on) the use of costly information,
while later innovations capitalized on its
lower cost. One of the earliest innovations,
the nineteenth century practice of issuing
assessable stock, provided some mechanisms to
squeeze information from firms. An
assessable
share-holder committed to supply a certain amount
of money to the firm, but
doled out the cash
to the firm in response to regular assessments.
(Dewing (1919). Issuers
of assessable common
stock were forced to return to their investors
regularly and make
the case for continued
commitment, because each investor held the option
to fail to make
the assessment and forfeit his
interest. The nineteenth century firms' almost
complete
reliance on secured debt for debt
financing (see Ripley cited in Baskin (1988, pp.
13
215-216)) may also be
interpreted as a costly contracting choice that
substituted for more
precise monitoring
prevented by inadequate disclosure.
Later
nineteenth century innovations took advantage of
the presence of cheaper
and more reliable
information. Later preferred stocks conditioned
their holders' voting
rights on firms' failure
to comply with covenant terms (Johnson (1925) and
Wilson
(1930), both cited in Dewing (1934)).
These covenants, especially after 1900, were more
likely to be tied to financial ratios, as were
bond covenants keyed to working capital tests
or asset maintenance tests (Dewing (1934)).
Finally, income bonds, popularized in the
late
nineteenth century, were completely linked to the
availability of accounting
information. These
unsecured obligations required issuers to pay
interest only if the firm
earned positive
accounting profits in the current period. This
early history shows how
innovations were a
response to information asymmetries. Certain
innovations forced the
revelation of
information and others exploited the low cost
information generated through
other processes.
(3) Innovation exists so parties can
minimize transaction, search or marketing
costs. Merton (1989) discusses how the
presence of transaction costs provides a critical
role for financial intermediaries. Financial
intermediaries permit households facing
transaction costs to achieve their optimal
consumption-investment program. Merton uses
this argument to explain how equity swaps can
be an efficient way to deliver returns to
multinational investors. A similar
explanation is invoked by McConnell and Schwartz
(1992) who provide a clinical study of one
particular innovation, LYONS (liquid yield
option notes). Lee Cole, the Options
Marketing Manager at Merrill Lynch noticed that
retail investors tended to place most of their
money in low-risk securities and then buy a
14
series of call options. Merrill
Lynch’s LYONs allowed investors to replicate this
payoff
without having to incur the commission
costs of rolling over their call option positions
at
least four times a year.
Many of the
process innovations in payment systems
technologies are aimed at
lowering transaction
costs. ATMs, smart cards, ACH technologies,
e-401k programs
and many other new businesses
are legitimate financial innovations that seek to
dramatically lower the sheer costs of
processing transactions. By some estimates, these
innovations have the potential to lower the
cost of transacting by a factor of over 100.
For example, by one estimate, a teller-
assisted transaction costs over $$1.00 and the same
transaction executed over the Internet would
cost about $$0.01.
15
New businesses
like Instinet, Open-IPO, Enron OnLine, Ebay, or
the host of B-
to-B exchanges are innovations
that aimed at lowering the transaction costs faced
by
buyers and sellers. These transaction
costs are search or marketing costs, which can
include a variety of components—the sheer
costs of identifying buyers and seller,
information costs, and transaction costs of
order processing. Ross’s (1989) analysis of
securitization keys off the expensive process
of marketing in conjunction with agency
considerations. Madan and Soubra (1991)
examine how financial intermediaries attempt
to maximize their revenues net of marketing
costs, which leads them to design multiple
products that appeal to wider sets of
investors.
History shows that as marketing
costs fall, financial innovations exploit the
easier
access to buyers and sellers of
securities. For example, during World War I, the
U.S.
government instituted a massive program
to fund its war-time efforts through selling
15
The Economist, “Online Finance Survey,”
May 20, 2000. Page 20
15
small-
denomination bonds to individual investors.
Carosso (1970) describes the Liberty
Loan
program of 1917 which identified and educated a
new clientele of retail investors:
The
Treasury immediately decided to mount an intensive
nationwide sales effort.
Advertisements and
thousands of spokesmen emphasized the security,
high yield,
and probable appreciation of the
new Liberty bonds. Established techniques were
put aside. Instead of selling substantial
amounts of large denominations for
holding in
relatively few hands, the government issued bonds
in small
denominations, utilized war saving
stamps widely, and permitted installment
payments. All the foregoing
individuals
not considered potential investors since the Civil
War days of Jay
Cooke.
These
activities by the federal government lowered the
costs for the private sector
to identify and
educate new potential customers. After the war,
innovations in the private
sector took
advantage of the lowered costs of raising funds
from households. These
innovations, tailored
to meet the needs of small savers, included
small denominations and securities sales on
installment (Riegel (1920)).
(4) Innovation
is a response to taxes and regulation: While many
authors have
pointed out the link between
taxes and innovation, Miller (1986) is often cited
on this
point: “The major impulses to
successful innovations over the past twenty years
have
come, I am saddened to have to say, from
regulation and taxes.” The list of tax and
regulatory induced products would include zero
coupon bonds, Eurodollar Eurbonds,
various
equity-linked structures used to monetize asset
holdings without triggering
immediate capital
gains taxes, and trust preferred
structures.
16
If we think of taxes
as a major “imperfection” added to the M&M world,
then the
search to maximize after-tax returns
has arguably stimulated much innovation, and
changes in tax law in turn stimulate even more
innovation. For example, various
equity-
linked structures used by firms to
monetize their holdings of stock permit these
firms to
16
delay paying capital
gains taxes. These innovations decouple economic
ownership or
exposure from legal ownership
(governance and tax implications.) See Tufano
(1997b)
and Santangelo and Tufano (1997) for a
case study of this type of innovation.
A
number of legal scholars have written extensively
on the relationship between
laws and
innovation, and have created a flourishing
literature on this subject. They
discuss how
tax laws have both encouraged and discouraged
innovation, analyzed the
failures of the U.S.
tax code for dealing with functionally-similar
securities, suggested
how to change the tax
code to eliminate innovation, and given their
opinions of the social
welfare costs of tax-
induced innovation.
17
A century
ago, taxes were a less visible force in the U.S.
economy, yet they still
played some role in
the process of financial innovation. In the late
1920s, a few states
(Delaware, New Jersey, and
New York) began to levy incorporation and transfer
taxes
based on the par value of firms' shares,
and to assign par values of $$100 to firms whose
stock had zero par value. Corporations almost
immediately reissued shares with small,
but
nonzero ($$1-$$5) par values (Hornberger (1933)).
Equipment trust certificates, by
which a
railroad leased cars from a manufacturer with
financing provided by the
certificates secured
by the equipment, were more popular in states such
as Pennsylvania
that subjected bonds, but not
the certificates, to income taxes (Dewing (1934)).
Changes in regulation are also credited with
stimulating innovation. Kane (1986)
identified what he calls the “regulatory
dialectic” as a major source of innovation.
Innovation responds to regulatory constraints,
which in turn are adjusted in reaction to
16
For an example of this type of
innovation for zero coupon debt, see Fisher, Brick
and Ng (1983).
17
This is a very
extensive literature. For representative papers,
see Gergen and Schmitz (1997),
Kollbrenner
(1995), Warren (1993), Knoll (1997, 2001) Strnad
(1994), Schenk, D. H., (1995).
17
these innovations. Bank capital
requirements are a good example of regulations
that
impose costs on the affected parties, who
then use innovation to optimize in light of these
constraints. Capital notes and certain
preferred stocks that qualified as “capital” to
bank
regulators are examples of regulatory-
induced innovation. Similarly, the early Eurobond
market was motivated by regulatory concerns.
By offering Eurodollar CDs, U.S. banks,
led by
Citicorp in 1966, sought to circumvent reserve
requirements to stem the painful
disintermediation they were
experiencing.
18
Regulations limiting
cross-border flows are
sometimes credited with
stimulating certain equity swaps, which enable
foreign investors
to hold an economic interest
in equities they would find difficult to
own.
19
The academic
debate on
regulation has taken many different forms: Whether
regulation has stimulated
or impeded
innovation and whether regulation is “sensible” in
light of innovation. See
White (2000), Hu
(1989), Pouncy (1998), and Russo and Vinciguerra
(1991) for
development of some of these
themes. While regulation is considered a key
driver of
innovation, Jagtaiani, Saunders and
Udell (1995) fail to find that changes in capital
requirements consistently affected the speed
of adoption of certain innovations, like
off-
balance sheet products.
While ratings
agencies are not governmentally-established
regulators, they are a
form of self-regulatory
organization. Their rules have given rise to
innovations. In
particular, various forms of
trust preferred securities that seek to retain tax
deductibility
while being treated like equity
from the perspective of ratings agencies are
examples of
innovation induced partially by
ratings.
18
Eurobond markets were also stimulated
by related concerns, although more linked to tax
considerations.
See Kim and Stulz (1988).
19
Regulation or lack of certain standard
legal forms can also stymie innovation. For
example, various laws
have apparently slowed
the growth of securitization in some European
countries.
18
Court decisions,
and the nature of the legal system, gives rise to
innovation.
Throughout the late nineteenth
century, the extreme business cycles experienced
by the
U.S. economy led to the massive
failures of railroads and industrial firms.
Security
holders turned to the courts to
enforce what they believed to be their legal
rights, but
judges set aside many
super-
senior
claimants, certain unsecured creditors
were paid before secured creditors, and judges set
“judicial” values for the claims of distressed
firms. These legal innovations were
important
stimuli for the adoption of contingent charge
securities and voting trusts, which
supplanted
traditional creditors' rights with more direct
means of monitoring and control.
See Tufano
(1997). Franks and Sussman (1999) argue that the
nature of the “innovation
regime” (whether
driven by lenders and borrowers, or by judges and
legislators) affects
the nature of subsequent
contract evolution and the amount of innovation.
Just as governmental or court rules can give
rise to innovation, so too can
religious
prohibitions. The strong Islamic prohibition
against interest has stimulated a
number of
alternative financing vehicles. Many of these
innovations seem to respect the
letter, but
not the spirit, of the ban on interest, using
sale-repurchase contracts to
effectively
deliver interest to lenders. For a discussion,
see Vogel and Hayes (1998).
It may be more
than semantics to comment that legal engineering
has facilitated a
range of new forms of
contracting innovations. For example, the on-
going quest for “tax-
deductible equity” has
largely been the product of legal engineers
utilizing new ideas to
develop securities who
cash payments are tax-deductible but which are
treated like equity
in the eyes of potential
investors. McLaughlin (2000) discusses the
relationship between
19
legal
engineering and financial innovation from the
perspective of a practicing member of
the
legal bar.
(5) Increasing globalization and
risk motivate innovation. Most essays on
financial innovation identify globalization
and increasing volatility as drivers of
innovation. With greater globalization,
firms, investors and governments are exposed to
new risks (exchange rates or political risks),
and innovations help them manage these
risks.
For example, a recent press report announced that
the Interamerican Development
Bank had created
the first-ever instrument that incorporated a
currency convertibility and
transferability
guarantee. In addition, globalization enables
capital raisers to tap larger
and more diverse
populations of potential investors. A variety of
innovations are
attributed to attempts to meet
the needs of specific investor clienteles. For
example, one
popular finance book describes a
variety of innovative structures designed to
appeal to
particular Japanese insurance
company investors, a form of cross-national
regulatory
arbitrage.
Some authors point
to increasing volatility as a stimulus to
innovation. For
example, Smith, Smithson,
and Wilford (1990. p. 13) document the increase in
the
volatility of interest rates, exchange
rates, and commodity prices, and draw a link
between this increase in riskiness and
financial innovation:
Uncertainty in the
global financial environment has caused many
economic
problems and disruptions, but it has
also provided the impetus for financial
innovation. Through financial innovation, the
financial intermediaries were soon
able to
offer their customers products to manage or even
exploit the new risks.
Through this same
innovation, financial institutions became even
better able to
evaluate and manage their own
asset and liability processes.
They list
a variety of innovations spawned by increasing
volatility: foreign exchange
futures, swaps
and options; interest-rate futures, swaps,
options, and forwards; and
20
commodity swaps, futures, and options.
As a concrete example, the deregulation of
natural gas in the United States suddenly
exposed producers and consumers of gas with
tremendous volatility. Drawing analogies to
financial markets, gas marketers created (or
adapted) a variety of new gas contracts,
including Volumetric Production Payment
contracts, cross-commodity swaps, and a line
of branded price protection products. See
Mason, Merton, Perold and Tufano (1995).
The volatility of exchange rates and inflation
rates prompted earlier innovations.
The period
of World War I and its aftermath was characterized
by high inflation
uncertainty.
an issue by
Rand-Kardex, linked interest and principal
payments to the wholesale price
index (Masson
and Stratton (1938)). This innovation, although
apparently never
popularized, was an explicit
attempt to solve the problem of volatile prices.
The
instability of currency values prompted
innovations regarding the medium of payment for
bonds (currency-choice bonds).
paying in
any kind of legal tender (gold, silver, or
currency); they give to him the benefit
of the
cheaper form of currency
problems of
investors by various attempts to insure
protection against depreciated
currencies.
innovations included indexing
payments to exchange rates and permitting
investors to
choose the form of the interest
payment (Masson and Stratton (1938)). Stabilized
and
currency-choice bonds show that volatility
motivated innovations in the 1830-1930
period,
just as it has spurred more recent innovation.
21
(6) Technological shocks
stimulate innovation: Shocks to technology are
thought to
provide a “supply-side” explanation
for the timing of some innovations.
20
Advances in
information technology support
sophisticated pooling schemes that we observe in
securitization. IT and improvements in
telecommunications (and more recently the
Internet) has facilitated a number of
innovations (not all successful), including new
methods of underwriting securities (e.g.,
OpenIPO), new methods of assembling
portfolios
of stocks (folioFN), new markets for securities
and new means of executing
security
transactions. White (2000) articulates this
technological view of financial
innovation.
New “intellectual technologies,” i.e.,
derivative pricing models, are credited with
stimulating the growth and popularization of a
variety of new contracts. Many new
forms of
derivatives were made possible because business
people could have some
confidence in the
methods of pricing and hedging the risks of these
new contracts.
Without the ideas developed by
Black, Scholes, Merton and many others, many
developments in derivative products would
probably never have occurred.
Various forms of
innovations such as new risk management systems
and measures
(such as Value-at-Risk based
measures), on-line retirement planning services
(like
Financial Engines), and new valuation
techniques (like real options) clearly were
facilitated by both intellectual and
information technology innovations. For example,
the
existence of lifetime portfolio choice
models, developments in numerical analyses and
simulation, hardware that enables faster
processing, and the Internet are all elements that
20
Schmookler’s (1967) classic work on
innovation articulates a technological-driven view
of broad classes
of innovations.
22
support (but may not ensure the success
of) new businesses like that seek to provide
consumers with advice on their financial
decisions.
A case study: No one
explanation works. Let us consider a quarter
century of
innovation in one particular part
of the investment management world, and how
virtually
every stimulus mentioned above
played a role in a whole family of innovations.
In their 1974 piece, “From Theory to a New
Financial Product,” Black and
Scholes describe
the birth of a new product:“market funds,” or what
we call today index
funds. Wells Fargo
reportedly first offered a privately placed
equally-weighted S&P 500
fund in 1971 (which
apparently never caught on), and introduced a
value-weighted fund
in 1973.
21
Black
and Scholes describe the challenges in bringing
this product to market,
which required Wells
Fargo to navigate regulatory and tax issues,
surmount systems
processing requirements, and
educate potential investors. What were the
stimuli for these
innovations? At one level,
the introduction of index funds permitted
investors to better
manage their investment-
consumption decisions—they “completed the market.”
They
also were an economical solution to high
transaction costs which would prevent most
investors from creating a basket of securities
that replicated the entire equity market. We
must also acknowledge that the innovation was
shaped by new technologies (both
intellectual
advancements as well as systems capabilities), was
a response to tax and
regulatory factors, and
was driven by the presence of information
asymmetries and
transaction costs that made
trading costly. Thus, this one innovation was the
result of
virtually every explanation advanced
above. Attempts to distinguish which factor was
most important seems pointless.
23
Later generations of indexed products
(and futures contracts) followed, but
moving
ahead a later related development was exchange
traded funds (EFT). EFTs
essentially let
investors trade the market index throughout the
day.
22
Toronto Index
Participations
(TIPS) in 1990 , Leland O’Brian Rubinstein’s
SuperTrust in 1992, the
American Stock
Exchange’s SPDRs (Standard and Poor’s Depository
Receipts) in 1993,
and Merrill Lynch’s HOLDRs
in 1999 were steps in the evolutionary innovation
process.
Arguably, EFTs and HOLDRs were
motivated by similar impulses as the index funds,
but these innovations enhance the
functionality of the original innovation. They
permit
investors to enjoy even lower
transaction costs than many index funds and permit
intraday trading, which facilitates
speculation, arbitrage and risk management. These
innovations are driven by regulation, in that
they permit investors to short sell the index,
which index funds do not, and avoid the uptick
rule, which prescribes when an investor
can
short-sell a security. These products are also
tax-motivated, in that they permit
investors
to avoid potential tax liabilities resulting from
the redemptions of other
investors, and to
“cherry pick” the timing of recognition of losses
and gains on individual
securities in the
basket. The HOLDRS also reduce transaction costs
by eliminating
rebalancing, whose transaction
costs (due to recognition of capital gains) can be
material.
23
The newest
“generation” of products pushing this
functionality to even greater
levels are the
“personal funds” that a few web-based firms are
offering, such as
21
Vanguard’s retail offering, the First
Index Investment Trust, was introduced in 1976.
22
Index futures also allow investors to
buy and sell the market portfolio, although they
take a different
legal form, have different
settling up features, and are not permissible
investments for some investors. The
Chicago
Mercantile Exchange first offered a futures
contract on the S&P 500 index in 1982.
23
For historical background on these products, see
Gary Gastineu, “Exchange Traded Funds: An
Introduction” Institutional Investor, Spring
2001. Also see the case studies of SuperTrust
(Mason, Merton,
Perold and Tufano (1995) and
HOLDRS (Perold and Brown (2000)).
24
folioFN.
24
These firms permit
investors to assemble baskets of stock in
relatively small
denominations, allowing
investors to create and trade positions involving
fractional
shares. Like ETFs, these products
permit investors to assemble and trade baskets as
well
as enjoy certain tax timing advantages
while eliminating the overhang of capital gains
triggered by mutual fund redemptions. This
innovation takes us back to the days before
the first “market portfolio” in that it makes
it possible for investors to directly create the
exposures that index funds and EFTS made
possible. What accounts for this new
innovation? At a functional level, this
product represents another step in the line of
products that enable investors to hold broad
diversified baskets for consumption
smoothing,
risk management and speculation. Yet it is
technology, embedded in
improvements in
information technologies, that permit personal
funds to be technically
feasible. Technology
may enable these innovators to market these
products via the web
as well as execute
transactions at low costs. One report noted that
“It simply was
impossible to consider such a
strategy before the advent of the Internet, ‘This
firm is a
child of the Internet, [the founder]
said.”
Market funds, index funds, ETFs,
HOLDRs, personal funds—this family of
innovations embody just about every possible
motive for innovation. They all deliver a
similar basic functionality, but successive
innovations build upon each other. Each new
generation attempts to lower the costs of
transacting, be more tax efficient, and to give
investors increasing control over their
decisions. This mini-history is a quick reminder
of the evolutionary process of innovation.
Along the way, some products died out (equal
weighted market funds or SuperTrust), some
succeeded (index funds and ETFs) and
24
Reportedly, the “fn” is apparently an
abbreviation for financial innovation. See Eric
Winig, “Virginia
firm reinvents the stock
market” Baltimore Business Journal, 622000, p. 23.
25
some are too early to tell
(personal funds.) Individual innovations often
fail, but even in
their failure, they give
subsequent innovators new information that can be
used to
develop the next generation of
products.
This evolutionary flavor reminds
us that the innovation process is a dynamic one.
Understanding these dynamics has been a long-
standing topic among students of
innovation,
with research on patent races being well
covered.
25
However, the easily
imitated nature of financial innovation may
not lend itself easily to these models. Merton
(1992) characterizes the dynamics of
innovation in the financial service world using a
metaphor of “financial innovation spiral” in
which one innovation begets the next. We
see
this in the sequence of innovations discussed
above. We also see the spiral when we
consider that the trading of standardized
exchange-traded products facilitates the creation
of custom-designed OTC products, which in turn
stimulates even greater trading,
lowering
transaction costs and making possible even more
new products. A variant of
this concept
would help explain how rival investment banks
created a set of increasingly-
improved
preferred stocks that would maintain a relatively
constant principal values
(Mason, Merton,
Perold and Tufano (1995)), by copying and
improving the prior product.
Persons and
Warther (1997) model the innovation spiral in
which adoption of innovations
provides other
participants with information about the
profitability of innovation, creating
waves of
innovation and an S-curve shape of adoption.
4. Who innovates? The identities of
and private returns to innovators
As Allen
(2001) points out, much of financial economics
acts as if financial
institutions do not
exist. While this tendency has also characterized
some of the literature
26
on
financial innovation, given the fairly applied
nature of the field, writers have more
explicitly dealt with the role of private
parties and financial intermediaries as
innovators.
Duffie and Jackson (1990)
consider the incentives of exchanges which lead
them to offer
one new contract rather than
another. Ross (1988) explicitly incorporates a
role for
investment banks that maximize their
own profits by coming up with innovative bundles
of securities to lower marketing or search
costs. Boot and Thakor (1997) model how
different institutional structures might lead
to different levels of innovation. They find
that innovation would be lower in a universal
banking system—especially one with
substantial
market concentration—than in one in which
commercial and investment
banking were
functionally separated. Essentially, greater
competition among these
private parties leads
to increased innovation. Bhattacharyya and Nanda
(2000) model
the incentives for innovation
within the investment banking industry. They find
that
banks with larger market shares will tend
to innovate, as will banks whose clients are
more sticky. Heinonen (1992) studies game-
theoretic models of innovation, focusing on
benefits on the costs of production (economies
of scope) or on the costs of distribution
(marketing.)
There has been relatively
little empirical work on the benefits accruing to
financial innovators. Tufano (1989) and
Carrow (1999) study the incentives of
investment banks to innovate, focusing on the
market shares they capture and the
underwriting spreads they charge on new types
of securities. Both studies find that
innovators earn higher market shares than
followers, even though imitation is rapid. The
studies reach different conclusions about
whether innovating investment banks charge
higher underwriting spreads than do follower
banks. Tufano found that underwriting
25
See Reinganum (1989) for a review of
this literature.
27
spreads on the
first offerings of innovations were not materially
larger than those on later
offerings, casting
doubt on the notion that the primary profit from
innovation comes from
increased spreads.
Carrow re-examined this question a decade later
with a slightly
different sample,
incorporating additional variables into this
analysis (underwriter
prestige rankings and 14
dummy variables indicating specific features of
the security).
With this new specification,
he finds that as the number of rivals increases,
spreads do
indeed decline. Neither of these
studies looks at the many ways in which innovative
bankers might profit by earning trading
profits on aftermarket activities, increasing the
likelihood of receiving subsequent business
through enhanced reputation, increasing the
quality of their own personnel leading to a
higher quality staff, or more personally for the
individuals involved, increasing their bonuses
and career progression. All of these
mechanisms for rewarding innovation are open
questions for future research.
In some
academic models, parties most constrained or
inconvenienced by
imperfections would be the
most likely to innovate, as the shadow costs of
releasing these
constraints would be greatest
for these firms. Silber (1975, 1983) articulates
this
constraint-based notion of innovation.
This might suggest that the smallest, weakest
firms, who face the most constraints, would be
the most likely to innovate. In the broad
field of innovation, this seems to be the
case, with smaller firms thought to be more
innovative.
26
There is some anecdotal
evidence that supports this conclusion in
financial
services. Two upstart financial
service firms—Vanguard and Drexel Burnham
Lambert—substantially developed their
businesses using a platform of innovative
products (index funds and junk bonds), and a
variety of e-Businesses attempted to create
competitive advantage through innovation.
However, this anecdotal observation is not
28
consistently supported by the
empirical data. At least for securities
innovations, larger,
more financially secure
investment banks have consistently been the
leading innovators
(see Tufano (1989)).
Matthews (1994, chapter 13) adapts industrial
organization models
to show why there might be
a self-reinforcing cycle between innovation and
market
share, with larger firms innovating and
thereby increasing their size at the expense of
their rivals. It is probably fair to note
that cross sectional determinants of the locus of
financial innovation is still an eminently
researchable question.
Among issuers, it is
difficult to argue that the most constrained firms
are the most
innovative. Rather, a great deal
of innovation is directed at larger, well-
established firms,
as described by one banker:
The only way to reach large investment-grade
companies is innovation. Such
companies have
ready access to every segment of the capital
markets on attractive
terms; we have to offer
the better mousetrap. This inevitably leads to an
array of
products, often customized for
individual issues.
27
Perhaps,
smaller and weaker firms face a great number of
constraints, and their efforts are
focused on
addressing these constraints directly (e.g.,
communicating their story to
potential
investors) rather than optimizing the form of
capital. Larger firms may have
addressed
these first-order imperfections and turn their
attention to more nuanced capital
structuring
issues and innovations. Among issuers, the
question of which firms
innovate—and
why—remains an open one.
Innovation includes
not only invention, but also the processes of the
diffusion or
adoption of the adoption. The
diffusion of innovations has long been studied in
the
industrial organization field (Molyneux
and Shamroukh (1999) summarize the industrial
26
See Scherer and Ross (1990) for a
review of the literature on this point.
27
E. Philip Jones, Head of Equity Linked
Origination at Merrill Lynch & Co, quoted in “A
market that
feeds on persistent innovation,”
Investment Dealers’ Digest, May 22, 2000.
29
organizational literature on the
adoption of innovations.) Empirical studies of
the
adoption of financial innovations have
focused on the introduction of automated teller
machines (Hannan and McDowell (1984, 1987) and
Saloner and Shepherd (1995)), small
business
credit scoring (Akhavein, Frame and White (2001)),
patents (Lerner (2002)),
off-balance sheet
activities of banks (Molyneux and Shamroukh
(1996), Obay (2000)),
junk bond issuance
(Molyneux and Shamroukh (1999)) and corporate
security
innovations (Tufano (1989)). The
central question in much of this literature is to
determine which organizations adopt
innovations and how quickly they do so. While
this
literature is rich, much of it plays off
of the question of whether larger firms or smaller
firms lead innovation, a long-standing debate.
There is also a “sociological” aspect to
this
research, in that it tries to understand the
relative importance of external stimuli
versus
internal factors (organizational characteristics
and competitive interactions among
potential
adopters.) In many of these studies, it has been
the larger firms that have
innovated more
rapidly, for example, with larger banks more quick
to adopt credit
scoring or larger investment
banks are faster to underwrite new securities.
Bringing new securities to market requires the
voluntary cooperation of both
issuers and
investors. As a business proposition, innovation
surely has the potential to
enable businesses
to create value. This is the theme in a business
book, The Power of
Financial Innovation, by
Geanuracos and Millar (1991), which studies 75
firms around
the globe, showing “how the
world’s best-managed companies are …putting the
latest
instruments to effective use.” While
it is surely the case that some businesses will
use
innovation and profit, there is little
systematic evidence on the benefits enjoyed by
investors and issuers, and how they share any
benefits of innovation. Preliminary
30
evidence suggest that innovative
investors in the 1970s and 1980s apparently
endured
greater risk than later investors
(measured by variability of ex post holding period
returns) and earned slightly higher returns
for bearing these additional risks. However,
whether the extra return is appropriate for
the level of extra risk borne is difficult to
ascertain in a small sample.
28
There are a series of clinical studies of
individual innovations that look at the
wealth
impacts of innovations. Nanda and Yul (1996)
study poison puts in convertible
bonds, and
conclude that shareholders benefited form this
innovation, perhaps at the
expense of
bondholders. Rogalski and Seward (1991) study
foreign exchange currency
warrants and find
that their issuers apparently benefited from this
innovation, although
they find that investors
substantially overpayed for this innovation.
Jarrow and O’Hara
(1989) find that purchasers
and Primes and Scores apparently overpaid for
these products
relative to the price of the
stocks from which they were constructed. Jarrow
and O’Hara
note however that these products
can serve valuable hedging demands for investors,
and
in the presence of transaction costs may
have benefited all parties.
As a general
proposition, we have a great deal more to learn
about the pricing of
financial innovations and
how benefits, if any, are shared among
participants. This is a
long standing
research topic in industrial organization; see
Tirole (1988, Chapter 10) for a
discussion of
the appropriation of the returns to innovation.
5. The impact of financial innovation
on society
While most authors acknowledge that
innovation has both positive and negative
impacts on society, their conclusion regarding
the net impact of financial innovation
28
See Tufano (1996).
31
reflects a diversity of opinions.
Merton (1992) stakes out one side of the argument:
“Financial innovation is viewed as the
“engine” driving the financial system towards its
goal of improving the performance of what
economists call the “real economy.” Merton
cites the U.S. national mortgage market, the
development of international markets for
financial derivatives and the growth of the
mutual fund and investment industries as
examples where innovation has produced
enormous social welfare gains.
Others take
the opposite viewpoint, sometimes employing
literary license (and
movie metaphors) to make
the argument that innovation’s benefits are less
clear:
Nothing is more dangerous than a good
idea. That ominous generalization seems
inescapable given the development of finance
over the past 40 years. Time and
again,
business has seized upon a new idea—junk bonds,
LBOs, derivatives—
only to push it far past its
sensible application to a seemingly inevitable
disaster.
If financial innovation is a gift,
then the package ticks, and the donor is Alfred
Hitchcock.
29
The phrase
“financial engineer” suggests another profession,
that of genetic
engineer. Indeed, one legal
scholar invoked the vision of derivatives
inhabiting a
financial Jurassic Park with the
implication that financial engineers have the
potential to create financial products that
could end up destroying civilization.
30
How do we research the question
of the net social benefits of innovation? One
“methodology” in the literature extrapolates
from specific examples, like the mortgage
market. For any one innovation, one can
attempt to measure the impact of innovation.
For example, researchers have attempted to
measure the size of the gains from financial
innovation in the mortgage market in the form
of securitization. and unbundling through
the
creation of collateralized mortgage obligations or
CMOs. These papers conclude that
innovation
led to materially lower mortgage rates charged to
borrowers. See Hendershott
29
Terence P. Pare, “Today’s hot concept,
tomorrow’s forest fire,” Fortune, May 15, 1995. p.
197.
30
Peter H. Huang, “A normative
analysis of new financially engineered
derivatives,” Southern California
Law Review,
March 2000 (73 S. Cal. L. Rev 471.) Huang was
referring to Hu (1995) who used this term,
32
and Shilling (1989), Sirmans and
Benjamin (1990) and Jameson, Dewan and Sirmans
(1992). However, others are quick to identify
contrary examples—the legal and policy
literature has extended discussions of the
“costs” of innovation that defer and evade
taxation, giving rise to loss of tax revenues,
loss of confidence in government, a sense of
inequity, and extensive resources devoted to
this activity which does not enhance social
welfare. There are other arguments that
innovation leads to complexity that in turn leads
to bad business decisions and social costs.
One sustained attack on financial innovation
is that specific innovations
contribute to
high levels of market volatility, and in
particular, to outcomes like market
crashes.
For example, supporters of this argument point to
examples like the impact of
portfolio
insurance trading on the stock market crash of
1987. Merton Miller’s (1991)
book, Financial
Innovations and Market Volatility, is a sustained
rebuttal to this
argument. Miller refutes the
contention that innovations have increased market
volatility
and then argues strongly that
attempts to regulate innovation will be
counterproductive,
like those of King Canute
trying to control the tides. The derivatives
market has been
the site of battles between
those who see innovation as a good or bad
influence on social
welfare. These
discussions can quickly turn to very specific
questions, such as “Do
derivatives exacerbate
emerging market crises?”
31
Despite the
best intentions of the authors on either side of
these arguments, their
studies cannot measure
social welfare directly, nor can they benchmark
the observed
outcomes against those never
observed. Furthermore, in light of the innovation
spiral
(where successful innovations beget
others) and the evolutionary process (where many
but contrasted it with another image—of
innovation permitting firms to hedge, producing
“soothing, perfect
hedges found in formal
gardens.”
33
innovations fail), it
is exceedingly difficult to identify the
boundaries of a particular
innovation, if one
wanted to measure its costs.
Looking at the
ex post impacts of specific financial innovations
to judge whether
the ex ante existence of an
innovative financial system is a hopeless task.
Seeking
another way to approach the ex ante
question, theorists have weighed into the
discussion
of the social welfare implications
of financial innovation. In order to bring
enough
structure to the problem so as permit a
meaningful discussion, they tend to focus on one
particular aspect of innovation. Theorists
studying the role of innovation in completing
or spanning markets have made the most
progress, and the surveys by Allen and Gale
(1994) and Duffie and Rahi (1995) summarize
the literature. Given that markets are
incomplete, one might assume that innovation
that gives participants greater freedom of
choice (in terms of spanning) would enhance
social welfare almost by definition, in the
sense of being pareto-optimal. Unfortunately,
this is not the case. For example, Elul
(1995) studies the welfare effects of
financial innovation in incomplete markets. Elul
shows that the addition of a new security may
have “almost arbitrary effects on agents’
utilities.” The introduction of a new
security can “generically make all agents strictly
worse off, or all agents strictly better off,
or favor any group of agents over another.”
Allen and Gale’s (1994) comprehensive book
puts together a set of their papers—
but taken
together, the results are discomforting. In a
series of papers, they analyze the
impact of
short sale constraints on social welfare. In
their 1988 paper, they show that if
short
selling is severely limited, innovation may
enhance social welfare and is efficient.
However, in their 1991 piece, in which they
study the environment in which investors are
allowed to undertake unlimited short sales,
they find that financial innovation is not
31
For a discussion of this topic, see the
review piece by Garber (1999).
34
necessarily efficient. (Allen and Gale
conclude that with unlimited short sales, even the
concept of equilibrium is ill defined.) There
are many more papers (see the reviews by
Allen
and Gale (1994) and Duffie and Rahi (1995)), but
it is probably fair to say that the
existing
theoretical models are sufficiently stylized and
sufficiently fragile so as to not
permit
sweeping generalizations to be made regarding the
social welfare implications of
financial
innovation. This too remains an open issue in the
literature. There may be an
opportunity to
apply advanced techniques from the “new”
Industrial Organization
literature to estimate
supply and demand curves to estimate the social
welfare impacts of
financial innovation—if the
necessary data can be found.
6.
Issues on the horizon: patenting and
intellectual property
In most businesses,
innovators protect their property rights in a
variety of ways:
They can try to maintain
their innovations as trade secrets, as Coca-Cola
has done with its
famous recipe. They can
patent their inventions, and then license them to
partners or to
litigate to discourage
infringement. They can attach proprietary labels
(copyrights,
trademarks or servicemarks) to
them, thereby branding them. They can attempt to
capture first mover advantages—in the form of
higher prices or greater market shares—
by
virtue of their innovation.
While financial
innovators do put service marks on their products
and benefit
from some first mover advantages,
the extent of financial innovation has been a bit
of an
intellectual property puzzle, because
both trade secrecy and patenting were thought to
be
impossible means of protection. Secrecy is
difficult for innovative securities, as investors
and regulators typically demand disclosure of
the terms of the offering. Secrecy is
35
possible to a greater degree to protect
process-innovations, such as the pricing
algorithms
for exotic derivatives or
information processing systems that would control
the creation
of new pooled security vehicles,
such as collateralized products or personalized
baskets
of stocks. Patenting was considered
infeasible, because the U.S. Patent Office had
historically taken a dim view of the
patentability of most financial products. While
there
had been a few exceptions (e.g., Merrill
Lynch’s early patent on its process for Cash
Management Accounts), financial innovations
were considered “business processes”
which
were hard to patent.
However, in 1998, Federal
Circuit Court of Appeals decision in the case of
State
Street Bank v. Signature Financial 47
U.S.P.Q.2d (BNA) 1596 (Fed. Cir. 1998) seemed
to open the door for patents on financial
products. Signature had developed a system for
asset management that it called the Hub-and-
Spokes system, in which a centrally-
managed
master fund (the hub) was distributed in a variety
of institutionally-distinct
forms (the
spokes). Signature patented this system, and then
sued State Street for using
it. The Court of
Appeals upheld Signature’s patent, which was
considered by some to be
a watershed event in
financial innovation, providing innovators with
new means to
protect their intellectual
property. For a discussion, see Heaton (2000).
It is unclear whether the State Street
decision will be construed narrowly or
broadly, or whether it will have a substantial
impact on business activity. However, as
with
any new development, this one is likely to invite
additional research. Lerner (2002)
has given
us a first glimpse of the new phenomenon of
financial patents, demonstrating
the
substantial increase in patenting activity, the
failure of finance patents to give proper
attribution to prior art, and the failure of
many firms, individuals and universities to seek
36
protection for their ideas.
The interested reader can browse the current set
of
applications and grants at . Finance-
related patents are
being filed for a wide
range of new products and processes, ranging from
patents on
Monte Carlo valuation methods to
“prepayment wristbands and computer debit
systems.”
There is understandably some
factual and legal disagreement over the validity
of
individual patents, in particular over the
novelty of some of the patents in light of the
substantial amount of prior (non-patented)
prior art.
Academic research could help to
understand whether patenting will encourage or
discourage innovation, change the nature of
financial innovation, encourage more
innovation by smaller players, or change the
competitivecooperative interactions among
financial service firms. In part, this yet-
to-be completed work will simply build upon the
extensive body of work in the industrial
organization field on patenting. However, trying
to understand what—if anything—is different
about the financial services industry, and
the
implications for protection of intellection
property and the nature of competition, is
likely to be a fertile area for future work.
7. Summary
The activity of financial
innovation is large, but the literature on the
topic is
relatively small and spread out
broadly among a number of fields. Unlike some
other
areas represented in this volume, where
our profession had made a great deal of progress,
the subject of financial innovation remains
one in which our intellectual maps show vast
uncharted—and potentially interesting—lands to
be explored.
37
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