炒股英语：Buy low, Sell high低买高卖- Warren Buffett
大学生个人简历怎么写-什么像什么的句子
Buy low, Sell high低买高卖- Warren Buffett
does, you can
too
2008-10-19 12:37:53
Buy low, Sell high - Warren Buffett does, you
can too
Buy low, Sell high is the oldest
investment cliche. Sounds simple, but it is very
hard to do. Why?
Psychology. Two things drive
the stock market; fear and greed. Fear is a
powerful emotion that
causes people to sell
investments and seek comfort and safety in cash or
gold. There is a lot of
fear around today.
Greed is an even more powerful emotion than
fear. Fear is temporary, greed is
permanent.
Greed always overtakes fear. Greed also lulls us
into a false sense of security. For
most
people logic and reason go out the window at both
ends of the spectrum.
Warren Buffett says Be
fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when
others are
fearful.
Buying low and selling
high requires you to buy now when the economy is
in a panic and fear is
rampant, and sell when
things are going great and everyone feels giddily
happy. Why would you
sell when your stocks are
going up every week?
Psychologically it is
incredibly difficult to buy now when all the news
is bad and everyone is in a
panic. It is
counter to every safety mechanism we have learned
since we were born. It is equally
difficult to
sell when everything is going great.
But,
watch what Warren Buffett does. He isn't buying
just any random stock. Buffett is buying
General Electric, Goldman Sachs, and other
rock solid companies that are at bargain basement
prices today.
You make money selling
stocks...not buying them. Here is another
counterintuitive truth. Most
investors spend
all their time researching stocks trying to time
their buys for the best entry point.
Fine, but
the reality is that you make money when you sell
stocks, not when you buy them. How
much time
do investors spend figuring out when to sell?
Instead, we are congratulating ourselves
on
what a great buying decision we made and
convincing ourselves that the stock price will
continue to go up 15% to 20% per year.
Everything is going great. No signs of trouble.
Party on.
Short sellers are a different breed.
They spend their time finding stocks they believe
are over
valued...and selling them short.
Meaning, they sell stock they don't own (margin),
and hope to
buy it back (cover) when the price
is lower. Stock investors could learn a lot by
watching short
sellers.
I have learned,
and forgotten, these lessons several times over
the years, and paid the price along
with many
other investors. Fear and greed are powerful
emotions at opposite ends of the
spectrum.
Both emotions cloud logic and reason. Warren
Buffett is one of the few people with
the
patience and determination to remember the lessons
and make them work.
Remember this Be fearful
when others are greedy, and be greedy when others
are fearful. In
other words, do the opposite
of what your emotions tell you. Easy to say...hard
to do.
Avoid the Mistake That Cost
Buffett 8 Years of Better Returns
By Richard
Gibbons
October 18, 2008
There's
one investment strategy you won't read much about
on , even though many
have tried it. In fact,
Warren Buffett spent eight years working with it
before discarding it as
worthless.
What
investment strategy is that? Technical analysis.
Invest like a lemming
Technical analysis
is the practice of predicting where stocks will
trade based on charts of
historical pricing
and volume information. There's a certain logic to
it. Stocks trade based on
supply and demand,
which is greatly influenced by investors'
attitudes about the stock. The
charts should
reflect those attitudes and might predict where
the stock will go.
It's an attractive idea.
Johnson & Johnson has bounced between $$60 and $$68
quite a few times
in the past four years. Why
not buy at the low, and sell at the high? Or look
at Rohm &
Haas' (NYSE: ROH) chart. Clearly,
investors love the stock. Its rise from $$7 to $$70
seems
unstoppable. Why not jump aboard and
profit?
Technical analysis is a simple yet
compelling strategy. You can see why Buffett spent
years early in
his career trying to master it.
An expensive mistake
But Buffett
discovered one small problem. Technical analysis
didn't work. He explained,
that technical
analysis didn't work when I turned the chart
upside down and didn't get a different
answer.
After eight years of trying, he
concluded that it was the wrong way to invest.
Then he focused on
the teachings of Ben
Graham, which stressed business fundamentals,
finding a strategy that both
made sense and,
more importantly, worked.
Three simple rules
The billionaire discussed that strategy at the
2008 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-B) general
meeting. When he was asked how to avoid the
crowd mind-set, he said he simply followed
Graham's three most important lessons:
1.
Buy stocks with a margin of safety.
2. A stock
is part of a business.
3. The market is there
to serve you, not instruct you.
The first
lesson usually makes the headlines. It means that
you should buy stocks for less than
they're
worth. But when Buffett talks about the second and
third lessons, he's basically admitting
that
he wasted eight years of his investing life.
Buying a business
After all, thinking
about a stock as part of a business is the
opposite of what technical analysis is
all
about. Technical analysis focuses on trading
securities. It doesn't matter whether the security
is a share of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), with its
crude oil, natural gas, petroleum, electric power,
and petrochemical divisions; or whether that
security is a derivative promising the delivery of
three tons of Italian meatballs. It's all the
same because technical analysis doesn't care about
the
business -- or the fundamentals.
In
Graham's second lesson, stocks are far more than
just pieces of paper or lines on graphs, and
to understand them, you need to understand the
business. If you're looking at USG (NYSE: USG),
ignore whether the stock has been up three
days in a row, and focus instead on whether the
company is in danger of tripping its debt
covenants.
Ways to serve man
Similarly, when Buffett says the market
isn't there to instruct, he's saying the movements
in the
market aren't telling you how to
invest.
When Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:
AMD) fell under $$2 per share in 1990, the market
was
saying that Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) was going
to eat the chipmaker's lunch.
When McDonald's
hit $$13 in 2003, the market was announcing that
the Big Mac would end up in
the Museum of Neat
Ideas Gone Wrong, alongside the tapeworm diet,
land wars in Asia, and
Paris Hilton's home
videos.
But in both cases, the market was
wrong.
So, instead of listening to the market,
Buffett seeks to take advantage of it. Sometimes,
the
market will offer to buy a stock for far
more than it's actually worth. Other times, it'll
offer you
the chance to buy shares of a great
company for far less than its fair value. An
investor who
understands the true value of a
business will be able to profit when the market
offers great
companies on sale.
The
Foolish bottom line
You can learn from
Buffett's error -- don't focus on charts. Instead,
understand businesses and
seek excellent
stocks the market offers at low prices. These
days, the market is particularly
treacherous.
Some stocks that seem cheap will turn out to be
very expensive. Others that are
simply beaten
down by negativity will post amazing returns.
Our Motley Fool Inside Value team is working
to take advantage of the situation, and we've
identified several stocks we think will post
some of those amazing returns. If you're
interested in
reading about them, click here
for a 30-day free trial.
This article was
first published June 16, 2008. It has been
updated.
Fool contributor Richard Gibbons
should not be used as a dessert topping. He does
not own
shares of any company mentioned in
this article. The Motley Fool owns shares of
Berkshire
Hathaway. Berkshire, USG, and Intel
are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations.
Berkshire is
also a Stock Advisor selection.
Johnson & Johnson is an Income Investor pick. The
Fool's disclosure
policy bears an eerie
resemblance to Charlie Munger.
Like J.P.
Morgan, Warren E. Buffett Braves a Crisis
By
STEVE LOHR
Published: October 5, 2008
In
the midst of a financial crisis, a towering figure
of American business steps forward with his
reputation and financial resources for public
good and personal gain.
Their times and
personalities are vastly different, of course. But
J. Pierpont Morgan’s role in the
Panic of 1907
has its echo in Warren E. Buffett’s actions during
the current financial troubles.
“What Buffett
is doing is similar in ways to what Morgan did in
1907,” said Richard Sylla, an
economist and
financial historian at the Stern School of
Business at New York University. “It’s
what
you might call profitable patriotism.”
Comparing the two men and their moves in
periods of market turmoil, just more than a
century
apart, reveals how much some things
have changed over the years and how other things
have
not, according to business historians and
finance experts.
Morgan was 70 during the
financial crisis of 1907, in the twilight of his
career. Mr. Buffett is 78.
Like Morgan so long
ago, Mr. Buffett now finds himself “at the center
of things; he draws
headlines and he inspires
confidence,” said Robert F. Bruner, dean of the
Darden School of
Business at the
University of Virginia, and a co-author with Sean
D. Carr of “The Panic of 1907:
Lessons From
the Market’s Perfect Storm” (Wiley, 2007).
In
the last two weeks alone, Mr. Buffett has
exercised his influence mainly by investing in
embattled blue-chip companies, committing a
total of $$8 billion to Goldman Sachsand General
Electric. He drove hard bargains and invested
on favorable terms.
Mr. Buffett has been
fielding many phone calls recently because of his
cash, his reputation and
his ability to act
quickly. The G.E. investment, for example, was put
together in a matter of hours,
after G.E.
reached out to Mr. Buffett through his longtime
banker at Goldman Sachs, Byron D.
Trott.
“In the last few weeks, everyone who has been
in trouble or thought they were in trouble has
called him,” said Alice Schroeder, author of
“The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of
Life,” a biography released last week by
Bantam. Ms. Schroeder, a former Wall Street
analyst, is
the first Buffett biographer to
receive his cooperation, and she said she talked
to him regularly.
The companies benefit from
the credibility dividend that comes with the
Buffett endorsement.
Last Thursday, the day
after he announced his investment in G.E., the
company raised more than
$$12 billion in a
public sale of shares.
Mr. Buffett is also the
largest shareholder in Wells Fargo, which last
Friday swept in with a $$15
billion bid for
another banking company, Wachovia, offering seven
times what Citigroup did at
the start of the
week.
Mr. Buffett is the world’s richest
person, topping this year’s ranking of
billionaires by Forbes
magazine with $$62
billion. Mr. Buffett has pledged to give most of
that fortune to charity upon his
death.
Yet even more than money, Mr. Buffett brings
the reputational capital that comes from being a
peerless long-term investor, revered for his
acumen and sound judgment.
“So there is
immense signaling power to Buffett’s moves,
showing others that now may be a
good time to
invest,” Mr. Bruner said.
Morgan wielded his
power over the financial markets more directly
than Mr. Buffett, though his
personal wealth
lagged the early 20th century industrial titans
John D. Rockefeller and Andrew
Carnegie.
In 1907, the United States had no central
bank. The financial crisis began that year because
trust
companies handling wills and estates —
firms long synonymous with safe investment —
exploited
legal loopholes and became wild
speculators in the stock market. When those
investments
soured, the collapse of the trusts
threatened the financial system.
Morgan
stepped in and functioned as America’s central
bank. The United States Treasury handed
him
$$25 million (more than $$550 million today) with
the blessing ofPresident Theodore
Roosevelt —
who was not a natural Morgan ally, given his
aversion for big business and its
leaders,
memorably deriding them as “malefactors of great
wealth.”
But those were dire economic times.
Morgan gathered his fellow financiers at his
Manhattan
mansion and hammered out a rescue
plan. After a few rocky weeks, the panic subsided.
“In 1907, Morgan was not only committing some
of his own money but also organizing the entire
financial community to join in the rescue,”
said Ron Chernow, a business historian and the
author
of “The House of Morgan” (Atlantic
Monthly Press, 1990).
Indeed, Mr. Chernow
said, one motivation for creating the Federal
Reserve in 1913 was that
Morgan would not be
around forever. Morgan died that same year.
Morgan also used the power of his
personality and public statements to try to sway
market
behavior and psychology. In the current
crisis, when authorities became concerned that
short-sellers were accelerating the stock-
market swoon, the Securities and Exchange
Commission
issued a legal order prohibiting
short-selling in the shares of roughly 800
companies.
In 1907, financial policies were
less formal. Morgan simply stated that short-
sellers, who bet that
a company’s share price
would drop, “shall be properly attended to,” said
John Steele Gordon, a
business historian and
author.
His words were to be taken as an
implied threat, and a reminder that he was
watching. “Nobody
wanted to find out what that
might mean,” Mr. Gordon explained. “In Morgan’s
day, the world
was so much smaller, and Morgan
was so powerful.”
The estimated $$44 billion in
cash that Mr. Buffett’s company, Berkshire
Hathaway, has on hand is
a modest sum compared
with the vast size of today’s financial markets.
So he can make selective
investments but not
turn things single-handedly.
At a time when
government looms so much larger in the economy
than it did a century ago, Mr.
Buffett, unlike
Morgan, is not directly involved in the current
rescue. Yet Mr. Buffett has said that
the
government has asked for his advice, and he knows
and admires the architect of the rescue
package, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson
Jr.
Mr. Buffett, according to Ms. Schroeder,
has over the years become more comfortable and
more
committed to speaking out on public
issues. “It’s not lost on him that people trust
him more than
they trust politicians,” she
said.
Mr. Buffett still speaks to the press
only occasionally, and he declined to be
interviewed for this
article. But after the
House of Representatives rejected the rescue plan
last Monday, Mr. Buffett
got a call from
Charlie Rose, the television interviewer, who has
known Mr. Buffett for years. He
urged Mr.
Buffett to appear on his PBSinterview show as soon
as possible.
“I told him, ‘You have to do
this,’ ” Mr. Rose recalled in an interview on
Saturday. “ ‘No one has
your credibility, and
people want to hear what you have to say.’ ”
Mr. Buffett agreed to do it, and Mr. Rose flew
to San Diego, where Mr. Buffett would be on
Wednesday. The hourlong interview on Wednesday
night was vintage Warren Buffett: calm,
plain-
spoken and wry.
He called the current crisis
an economic Pearl Harbor, requiring immediate
action. Its biggest
single cause, he
explained, was the real estate bubble. “Three
hundred million Americans, their
lending
institutions, their government, their media, all
believed that house prices were going to
go up
consistently,” he said. “Lending was done based on
it, and everybody did a lot of foolish
things.”
As far back as 2003, Mr. Buffett
had warned that the complex securities at the
center of today’s
troubles — once so
profitable, but now toxic — were “financial
weapons of mass destruction.”
These securities
were engineered by the math quants on Wall Street,
and in the interview Mr.
Buffett expressed his
disdain: “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.”
To help pay for the rescue, the government
should raise taxes on the wealthy, Mr. Buffett
suggested. “I’m paying the lowest tax rate
that I’ve ever paid in my life,” he said. “Now,
that’s
crazy.”
On Friday, after public
sentiment shifted, the House passed the financial
rescue package. But the
markets are still
weak, and it remains to be seen whether Mr.
Buffett’s recent investments will
prove to be
wise ones.
“It’s a high-risk moment,
and I think he may have ventured into the waters
prematurely,” said Mr.
Chernow, the historian.
“But Warren Buffett is worth many billions of
dollars, and I am assuredly
not.”
A
version of this article appeared in print on
October 6, 2008, on page B1 of the New York
edition.