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原文
Changing Channels In The Automotive Industry: The
Future of Automotive Marketing and Distribution

Who will be the winners and losers in the revolution that is radically reshaping
the marketing, distribution and selling of automobiles? Will the vehicle manufacturers
and their franchised-dealer networks be able to overcome years of inertia and
complacency to pioneer and execute new concepts that will strengthen and extend the
value of their brands? Or will nimbler, more imaginative retailers or software
companies get there first?
The transformation of the business of selling cars and trucks is happening before
our eyes at an incredible pace -- promising to change forever an industry that has long
been noted for its high costs, poor service and extremely unpleasant selling process.
Auto manufacturers have competed fiercely among themselves to drive out cost and
meet consumer needs for cheaper and better cars and trucks. Now the survivors face
new threats from outside the industry that might thwart their renewed interest in
building strong, lasting relationships with their customers.
Entrepreneurs have dissected the cost-value equation and come up with new
retail concepts. Their stories have been persuasive enough to attract hundreds of
millions of dollars in public equity investment and persuade dozens of fiercely
independent car dealers to sell out. Internet technology has lowered entry barriers for
other entrepreneurs with new ideas about helping customers find, evaluate and buy
new vehicles. These patterns are consistent with revolutions in other consumer
durables markets that effectively transferred market power from manufacturers to
retailers.
Consumers are the only clear winners in this battle. While we are not sure which
vehicle manufacturers will survive, we are confident that winning will require a better
understanding of the life- cycle value equations of both cars and buyers, and the
development of innovative strategies to capture that value.
FORCES OF CHANGE
From the days of Henry Ford's production line, the automobile industry has been
based on a
cover high fixed costs.
Dealer networks were created as logical extensions of the
The networks were designed to hold inventory, leverage private capital (without
threatening the manufacturers' control) and service and support what was then a less
reliable and more maintenance-intensive product. Those networks generally were
built around entrepreneurs focused on a defined geographic area, selling one or at
most two brands.
Despite its longevity, the traditional dealer channel leaves many people unhappy.

High customer acquisition costs motivate dealers to convert store traffic to sales using
aggressive tactics that extract differential margins based on customers' willingness to
pay. Frequent well- publicized rebates have taught buyers to mistrust sticker prices and
negotiate from cost up, rather than sticker down. As a result, dealers often find
themselves competing not against another brand, but against a same-make dealer
across town. This acute competition has almost bid away dealer profit on the sale of
new passenger cars in the United States (with some profits still available on sales of
trucks, sport utility vehicles and luxury cars).
Shrinking dealer margins do not translate into happy customers: Most customers
(approximately four out of five) dislike the purchase process, and many still come
away feeling cheated and mistreated. This strong antipathy is largely responsible for
the rapid growth of Internet- based services that offer alternative means of gathering
information on cars, soliciting price quotes and, in some cases, conducting
transactions.
SURFING THE NET FOR PROFITS
Obviously the Internet is a major enabler of change in auto distribution. Many of
the most important auto industry innovators today are developing Web-based services,
leading some to predict that the most important automotive company of the next
century will be a software-based company. Republic Industries, for instance, expects
sales to reach $$1 billion on the World Wide Web by the year 2000. Estimates vary, but
some studies have shown that with some cars, as many as 40 percent of customers
gather information from the Internet. A smaller but growing percentage of customers
demonstrate what is called shopping behavior, or soliciting price quotations and
availability information prior to the actual purchase.
The dramatic growth and power of Internet technology have greatly reduced the
cost of obtaining information on features, price and availability. Consequently,
customers are better equipped to extract what they want from dealerships. One of the
pioneers of Internet marketing, Inc., is working to speed response time
from its participating dealers because it has learned that a staggeringly high
proportion of its customers -- 64 percent -- buy within 24 hours of using its service to
get price and availability quotes. The Internet offers new and better ways to perform
many sales and marketing functions and makes it possible for manufacturers to have
more and richer two-way communications directly with consumers. It has also
provided, for the rest time, the capability for channel marketing on a national or even
international scale, attacking further the value of the traditional, geographically
depend channel.
DEALERS STILL PART OF EQUATION
No one is suggesting, though, that auto dealers will disappear. Ironically, changes
in cars and trucks themselves are making dealers more important. Consumers have
more choices of brands and models than ever before. Improved durability and
reliability and faster design cycles have narrowed the differences among competing
products in the same category. Brand loyalty increasingly derives not from the
product itself but from the total purchase and ownership experience. Numerous
studies show that customer satisfaction has become a much more critical competitive

differentiator and a greater influence on repurchase loyalty than the car itself. And it is
the dealer that controls these levers today. (See Exhibit II.) This explains the intense
efforts many vehicle manufacturers have made to set standards for, measure and even
base some dealer compensation on customer satisfaction scores.
As a result of the high-cost, low-satisfaction proposition provided by the
traditional dealer channel in general, many players have recently moved to capitalize
on opportunities afforded by improving the channel-value equation. Entrepreneurs
with access to public capital have strategic designs to modernize auto distribution. Six
dealer groups in the United States went public in 1996-7. Collectively they soared
past the $$4 billion mark in revenue in 1997, up by more than 30 percent from 1996,
with most of the growth coming from additional acquisitions of existing dealers.
The most prominent new automotive industry entrepreneur in the United States
is H. Wayne Huizenga, chairman of Republic Industries. Mr. Huizenga has a proven
track record as an innovator who has revolutionized the waste disposal and video
rental industries. Republic owns the nation's largest group of franchised automotive
dealerships, operates the AutoNation USA used- vehicle megastore chain and owns
and operates several car rental businesses. Republic is currently on an extraordinary
acquisition campaign for new-car business dealerships. Even though Republic has
almost single-handedly doubled the market price for dealerships, it does not appear to
be slowing down.
Nonetheless, manufacturers seem to be following, not leading, the revolution.
Many are still being pushed or kicked along the path of change. There are real
questions whether their late -- and in some cases half-hearted -- responses will be
enough to protect the traditional position of the vehicle manufacturer as the caller of
shots in the auto industry.
VISION FOR THE FUTURE
Now that we see serious cracks in the walls protecting the traditional automotive
distribution model, what will the future bring? Both the underlying drivers of change
in automotive retailing and the trends already under way help answer that question. In
addition, it is helpful to compare the automobile industry with other industries that
have experienced distribution- channel evolution and look at the lessons they learned.
Most consumer-durable industries have undergone substantial distribution-channel
evolution resulting from changes in economics, regulations or technologies. Each one has unique
circumstances, but we can see three relatively common, distinct stages in these channel
restructurings:
Stage One: This is marked by major improvements in value delivered, mostly
reductions in cost. Usually the cost reductions stem from consolidation and
rationalization in the channel as better concepts or bigger players drive out marginal
or small players. The bigger players use their cost advantage to reduce prices and
often to improve service, variety and convenience.
Stage Two: Here channel evolution is focused on meeting the needs of specific
customer segments. Channel functions are unbundled and restructured into more
efficient or more appealing formats for defined groups of customers. Customer value
is further enhanced through lower prices, better service or greater variety.

Stage Three: This brings dramatic new paradigms not just for distribution but for
the entire value chain. Full-service leasing (by the hourin the
heavy-duty-truck market is an example of this type of game-changing concept.
We anticipate five major changes in future automobile distribution patterns and
practices:
FORMING A STRATEGIC RESPONSE
Given this view of the future, what should a manufacturer or major channel
player do? Appropriate responses are to some extent situation-dependent, of course,
but we believe the three stages of channel evolution observed in other industries
provide valuable insight into what is and will be required to prevail in the automotive
industry.
Accordingly, we recommend the following strategic responses consistent with
the three stages of channel evolution and the future automotive distribution vision
described above:
Aggressively and systematically pursue functional improvement beyond the
factory gate. The most prominent opportunity is cost.
Develop a vision of a desired end-game distribution channel strategy and begin
making progress toward that vision, taking care to achieve consistency between the
long-term vision and short-term functional improvement agendas.
Build the means to create and capture much more of the value
associated with the automobile -- and, in so doing, strive to innovate
approaches to the business.
FUNCTIONAL IMPROVEMENTS
In the conventional dealer networks, tremendous improvement opportunities
exist along two basic functional paths: reducing costs and raising customer
satisfaction. Most manufacturers and many large channel players are jumping at these
opportunities, given their magnitude. However, these players tend to select a limited
number of programs, and they typically concentrate on single functional
improvements independently or on a single functional path.
A better approach is to address systematically the whole realm of possibilities
with an integrated view of benefits within and across specific functions. This is not
easy. Even programs with moderate scope and ambition typically require reforming
entrenched business philosophies; coordinating several organizational groups with
disparate incentives; managing complex and imposing legalities, and facing up to
dealers resistant to change. But manufacturers must recognize that new players
unencumbered by these constraints are raising the bar and traditional players must
reach higher or fall behind.
To date, Republic has focused primarily on pursuing the benefits of consolidation
typical in the first stage of retail channel evolution. But some of its actions suggest the
potential for truly game- changing retail evolution. When channel players, as opposed
to manufacturers, are the winners in retail evolution, most often the one that leads in
the first stage is the one that leads in other stages and reaps substantial benefits.
Republic could be the first in the automotive industry to create an independent retail
brand that actually

译文：
汽车行业渠道的转变：未来的汽车销售和流通

谁将成为赢家？谁能彻底重 塑销售、分销和销售为一体的汽车?他们的汽车
制造商网络能够克服惯性和骄傲自满的先驱和执行新观念 ，加强和扩大品牌价值
的吗?或者，更富于想象力的零售商将nimbler或软件公司先到那儿?
变革的商业销售轿车和卡车在我们眼前发生在一个令人难以置信的速度—
—承诺永远改变， 长期以来一直使这个行业中付出很高的代价，可怜的服务和令
人不快的销售过程。汽车制造商之间的激烈 竞争，使自己所需费用和满足消费者
又便宜又好汽车和卡车。现在这个幸存者面对新的威胁来自国外的行 业，可能会
阻止他们的兴趣，以及持久良好的客户关系。
企业家们想出了新的零售观念。 他们的故事已经有说服力的足够吸引了数亿
美元的公共股权投资和说服数十种完全不卖了汽车经销商。互 联网技术已经降低
了进入壁垒和其它企业家帮助客户寻找新的看法，评估和买新车。这些模式符合
其他耐用消费品市场的革命力量，有效转移到零售商从制造商的市场。
消费者是唯一没有加入到 这次战斗中的成员。虽然我们不能肯定哪个汽车制
造商能生存，我们坚信胜利将需要一个更好的理解这个 定义值方程的汽车和买
家，开发创新的策略。
改变的力量

亨利·福特生产线的发展是基于“supply- push”的理念——强烈倾向“填
工厂”涵盖高的固定成本。
经销商网络的逻辑延伸，创建了“supply-push”模式。这个网络是用来持
有存货，利用私人 资本(不威胁到制造商控制)、服务和支持的内容是一个更可靠、
更适合大众的产品。这些网络一般都是 围绕企业家集中在一个定义地域，卖一或
两名品牌。
尽管它的寿命很短，传统的经销商渠 道使很多人不快乐。获取客户的成本很
高，激励经销商储存流量转换使用咄咄逼人的销售策略，基于微分 边缘提取顾客
愿意支付。频繁的构架回扣所教导的买家，不信任贴纸价格和谈判，而不是从成
本 的贴纸。因此，经销商经常发现他们的竞争对手不反对另一个品牌，但是对一
个经销商采取敌对的态度。 这种激烈的竞争几乎已经使投标商获利，并出售新轿
车。继续发售﹐有意购买者请在销售的卡车、运动型 多用途车和豪华车。
萎缩的经销商利润不转化为快乐的顾客：大多数顾客(大约五分之四的)不喜
欢购买过程中，许多人还是离开感觉到欺骗和虐待。这种强烈的反感主要是为快
速增长的互联网 服务所提供可供选择的方式收集资料，对汽车，报价及价格，在
某些情况下，进行交易。
在网上冲浪的利润

因特网在汽车分销中是一个主要的明显变化的角色。许多最重 要的汽车产业
发展网络服务的创新者的今天，导致了一些人预测，最重要的汽车公司将在下个
世 纪的软件公司。共和国行业，例如，预期销售额达到10亿美元在万维网上。

估计有很多 ，但一些研究表明一些汽车，多达40%的客户从互联网上收集信息。
一个较小，但越来越多的客户展示 所谓的购物行为，或招揽价格和可用性信息之
前的实际购买。
这个引人注目的成长与网路 科技的力量已经大大降低了成本获取信息的特
点，在价格和可用性。因此，客户更好地提取他们想要的东 西从经销商。一个先
锋的网络营销，有限公司是致力于速度响应时间从它的参与，因
为它已经得 知，经销商有惊人比例过高，它的64%客户——买的24小时内使用
它的服务得到的价格和可用性。互 联网提供了新的和更好的方法来进行销售和营
销功能，使得制造商已经越来越富裕的双向通信与客户直接 。它也提供了，剩下
的时间，对渠道销售全国乃至国际规模，攻击进一步的价值取决于传统，地
理
频
道。
经销商还是部分的方程

尽管没有人说，但汽车经销 商终会消失。具有讽刺意味的是，改变自己的轿
车和卡车正在经销商更为重要。消费者有了更多的选择的 品牌和型号比以往任何
时候都多。改进的耐久性与可靠性和更快的设计周期已经缩小了与之竞争的产品< br>差异在一样的范畴。品牌忠诚度跟不上产品的日益来源本身，而是来自总采购和
所有权的经验。无 数的研究表明，顾客满意已经成为一个更重大的竞争和更大的
影响大于汽车本身回购忠诚。和它的经销商 ，控制这些杠杆。(看展览II。)这
就解释了许多汽车制造商的巨大努力使设定标准、计量、甚至基地 有些经销商补
偿对顾客满意的成绩。
作为一个结果，low-satisfaction 命题的成本提供传统的经销商渠道总的
来说，很多消费者已经开始利用机会提供完善channel-v alue方程。企业家与使
用公共资金有策略性的设计来满足汽车分销。经销商群体在美国上市的199 6-7。
他们过去了40亿美元猛增，在1997年的收入，增加了超过30%，从1996年，
大部分的增长来自另外收购现有经销商。
虽然如此，制造商似乎是跟着，不是领导，革命。许多 仍然被推或踢沿着小
路上的改变。真正的问题是他们是否有晚——在某些情况下，反应将足够三心二意——保护传统的汽车制造商位置的来电者的汽车工业。
展望未来
现在我们看到墙 上的裂缝中严重的传统汽车分布模型的保护，将来会带来什
么?潜在的司机都在汽车零售及变化趋势已帮 助回答这个问题。此外，它是有用
的比较与其他行业的汽车行业经验，有流通渠道的演化，有他们学到的 教训。
大多数消费者产业经历了实质性的流通渠道演化经济学中产生变化，法规和
技术。 每个人心里都有独特的环境，但我们可以看到三个较为常见，阶段，这些
频道的重组。
第 一阶段：这是由价值有重大改进，大多减少成本。通常的成本大大降低，
源自于巩固和合理化的频道概念 或更大更好的球员赶出边际”或“小”的球员。
更大的玩家使用他们的成本优势，以减少价格和经常来提 高服务、多样性和便利。
第二阶段：这里是集中在进化渠道的特定客户细分市场。通道功能和重组 成
更有效率绑定或更有吸引力的格式定义组的客户。通过顾客价值进一步提高价格
降低，更好的 服务和更大的变化。
第三阶段：这带来戏剧性的新范式，不只是为了分布，但对于整个价值链。< /p>

全方位的租赁(“权力”)按小时的重卡市场是一个例子，这种类型的“改变游戏”
概念。
形成战略的反应

给这一观点的未来时，应厂商主要渠道球员做的吗? 适当的反应是某种程度
上公平形势，当然，但我们相信这三个阶段，在其它行业的通道演化提供了有价< br>值的洞察力，将被要求是什么在汽车行业经验。
因此，我们建议以下战略性反应符合三个阶段的通道演化和未来汽车分销视
觉以上所描述的：
积极地追求功能性改进，厂大门之外。最突出的机会成本；理想的发展战略
和许多的分销渠道，开始制造 进度，达到视觉照顾的长远的眼光和短期功能的改
进工作；建立能创造并占领更多的“下游”与之关联的 汽车，在这么做的时候，
努力创新“改变规则”方法。
功能性改进

在 传统的经销商网络，巨大的改进机会存在两个基本功能的路径：降低成本，
提高客户满意度。大多数厂家 和许多大型渠道球员抓住这些机遇，给他们的大小。
然而，这些球员的倾向于选择一定数量的程序，而且 他们通常专注于单一功能的
改善独立或单一功能的路径。
一个更好的方法来解决系统的整 个领域的可能性，与一个综合考虑收益在特
定的功能。这并不是一件容易的事。即使与适度规模和野心通 常需要改革根深蒂
固的经营理念；协调组织团体，几个不同动机；管理复杂、雄伟legalities 、
面向经销商反对变化。但制造商必须认识到新球员不受这些约束标杆和传统的球
员必须达到更 高或落后。
到目前为止，我国主要集中于追求利益整合典型的第一阶段的零售渠道进
化。 但是它的一些行为提出潜在的真正改变规则零售进化。当信道的球员，而不
是生产商，在零售演化，最常 见的一个导致在第一阶段是一个导致在其他阶段和
收获的实质性好处。我国可以成为第一个在世界汽车工 业中创造一个独立的零售
品牌。
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