GMAT作文黄金80题范文
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[分享]GMAT作文黄金80题范文
GMAT作文黄金80题范文
一.Analysis
of Issue Questions
2. “It is unrealistic
to expect individual nations to make,
independently, the sacrifices necessary to
conserve energy. International leadership and
worldwide cooperation are essential if we expect
to protect the world’s energy resources for
future generations.”
The speaker asserts that
an international effort is needed to preserve the
world’s energy resources for future
generations. While individual nations, like
people, are at times willing to make voluntary
sacrifices for the benefit of
others, my view
is that international coordination is nevertheless
necessary in light of the strong propensity of
nations to act selfishly, and because the
problem is international in scope.
The main
reason why an international effort is necessary is
that, left to their own devices, individual
nations, like
people, will act according to
their short-term motives and self-interest. The
mere existence of military weapons
indicates
that self-interest and national survival are every
nation’s prime drivers. And excessive consumption
by
industrialized nations of natural resources
they know to be finite, when alternatives are at
hand demonstrates that
self-interest and
short-sightedness extend to the use of energy
resources as well. Furthermore, nations, like
people, tend to rationalize their own self-
serving policies and actions. Emerging nations
might argue, for example,
that they should be
exempt from energy conservation because it is the
industrialized nations who can better afford
to make sacrifices and who use more resources
in the first place.
Another reason why an
international effort is required is that other
problems of an international nature have also
required global cooperation. For example, has
each nation independently recognized the folly of
nuclear weapons
proliferation and voluntarily
disarmed? No: only by way of an international
effort, based largely on coercion of
strong
leaders against detractors, along with an appeal
to self-interest, have we made some progress. By
the same
token, efforts of individual nations
to thwart international drug trafficking have
proven largely futile, because
efforts have
not been internationally based. Similarly, the
problem of energy conservation transcends national
borders in that either all nations must
cooperate, or all will ultimately suffer.
In
conclusion, nations are made up of individuals
who, when left unconstrained, tend to act in their
own self-interest
and with short-term motives.
In light of how we have dealt, or not dealt, with
other global problems, it appears that
an
international effort is needed to ensure the
preservation of natural resources for future
generations.
3. “Corporations and other
businesses should try to eliminate the many ranks
and salary grades that
classify employees
according to their experience and expertise. A
‘flat’ organizational structure
is more likely
to encourage collegiality and cooperation among
employees.”
Which is a better way to classify
and reward employees of a business: a “flat”
organizational structure or a
hierarchical
structure? The speaker prefers a “flat” structure
in which distinctions between employees based on
education or experience are not used as a
basis for monetary rewards. I strongly disagree
with the speaker’s view,
for two reasons.
In the first place, the speaker’s preference
for a “flat” structure is based upon the claim
that cooperation and
collegiality among
employees is more likely under this system than
under a hierarchical one. However, this claim
ignores our everyday experience in human
interaction. Disagreements among coworkers are
inevitable. Without a
clear authoritative
figure to resolve them and to make final
decisions, disputes are more likely to go
unresolved and
even worsen, thereby
undermining cooperation, congeniality and,
ultimately, productivity and profit.
In the
second place, whether or not collegiality and
cooperation are best fostered by a flat
organizational structure
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is beside the point. My main reason for
rejecting an organizational structure that does
not distinguish workers in
terms of their
abilities or experience is that under such a
system workers have little incentive to improve
their
skills, accomplish their work-related
goals, or assume responsibility for the completion
of their assigned tasks. In
my experience,
human motivation is such that without enticements
such as money, status or recognition, few people
would accomplish anything of value or assume
responsibility for any task. A flat system
actually might provide a
distinct disincentive
for productivity and efficiency insofar as workers
are not held accountable for the quality or
quantity of their work. By ignoring human
nature, then, a company may be harming itself by
encouraging laziness and
complacency.
In
sum, the speaker’s opinion that a “flat”
organizational structure is the best way to
promote collegiality and
cooperation among
employees runs counter to the common sense about
how people act in a work environment, and in
any case provides a feeble rationale for the
preference of one organizational structure over
another.
9. “Employees should keep their
private lives and personal activities as separate
as possible from
the workplace.”
Should
employees leave their personal lives entirely
behind them when they enter the workplace, as the
speaker
suggests here? While I agree that
employees should not allow their personal lives to
interfere with their jobs, the
speaker fails
to consider that integrating personal life with
work can foster a workplace ambiance that helps
everyone do a better job, thereby promoting
success for the organization.
Engaging
coworkers in occasional conversation about
personal interests and activities can help build
collegiality
among coworkers that adds to
their sense of common purpose on the job. Managers
would be well advised to
participate in and
perhaps even plan the sharing of personal
information—as a leadership tool as well as a
morale
booster. An employee feels valued when
the boss takes time to ask about the employee’s
family or recent vacation.
The employee, in
turn, is likely to be more loyal to and
cooperative with the boss. Company-sponsored
social
events—picnics, parties, excursions,
and so forth—also help to produce greater
cohesiveness in an organization, by
providing
opportunities for employees to bond with one
another in ways that translate into better working
relationships.
Admittedly, employees
should guard against allowing their personal life
to impinge upon their job performance or
intrude on coworkers. Excessive chatting about
non-business topics, frequent personal telephone
calls, and the like,
are always distracting.
And romances between coworkers are best kept
confidential, at least to the extent they
disrupt work or demoralize or offend other
employees. By the same token, however, employees
who are too
aloof—sharing nothing personal
with others—may be resented by coworkers who
perceive them as arrogant,
unfriendly, or
uncooperative. The ill-will and lack of
communication that is likely to result may
ultimately harm the
organization.
In the
final analysis, employees should strike a careful
balance when they mix their personal lives with
their jobs.
Although there are some
circumstances in which bringing one’s personal
life to the job may be counterproductive,
for
many reasons it is a good idea to inject small
doses of personal life into the workplace.
11.
“When someone achieves greatness in any field —
such as the arts, science, politics, or business
— that person’s achievements are more
important than any of his or her personal faults.”
Perhaps in some instances the personal
failings of great achievers are unimportant
relative to the achievements. In
many cases,
however, the relative significance of personal
failings can be very great, depending on two
factors: (1)
the extent to which the failing
is part of the achievement process itself, and (2)
the societal impact of the
achiever’s failing
apart from his or her own success.
Personal
failings and achievement are often symbiotically
related. The former test the would-be achiever’s
mettle;
they pose challenges—necessary
resistance that drives one to achieve despite the
shortcoming. Personal failings
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may also compel one to focus on one’s
strengths, thereby spawning achievement. For
example, poor academic or job
performance may
propel a gifted entrepreneur to start his or her
own business. In the arts, a personal failing may
be a necessary ingredient or integral part of
the process of achieving. Artists and musicians
often produce their
most creative works during
periods of depression, addiction, or other
distress. In business, insensitivity to the
“human” costs of success has bred grand
achievements, as with the questionable labor
practices of the great
philanthropist Andrew
Carnegie.
A second type of personal failing is
one that is unrelated to the achievement. Modern
politics is replete with
examples: the marital
indiscretions of the great leader John F. Kennedy
and the paranoia of the great statesman
Richard Nixon, to name just two. Were the
personal failings of these two presidents less
“important” than their
achievements? In the
former example, probably so. In the latter
example, probably not since it resulted in the
Watergate scandal—a watershed event in
American politics. In cases such as these,
therefore, the societal impact
of shortcoming
and achievement must be weighed on a case-by-case
basis.
In sum, history informs us that
personal failings are often part-and-parcel of
great achievements; even where they
are not,
personal shortcomings of great achievers often
make an important societal impact of their own.
12. “Education has become the main provider of
individual opportunity in our society. Just as
property and money once were the keys to
success, education has now become the element that
most ensures success in life.”
Which
factor offers more opportunities for success in
our society: education or money and property? In
my view,
education has replaced money and
property as the main provider of such
opportunities today. I base my view on two
reasons. First, education—particularly higher
education—used to be available only to the wealthy
but now is
accessible to almost anyone.
Second, because of the civil-rights movement and
resulting laws, businesses are now
required to
hire on the basis of merit rather than the kinds
of personal connections traditionally common among
the
wealthy.
Education probably always
played a key role in determining one’s
opportunities for success. But in the past, good
post-secondary education was available mainly
to the privileged classes. Because money and
property largely
determined one’s access to
higher education, money and property really were
the critical factors in opening doors to
success. However, higher education is more
egalitarian today. Given our vast numbers of state
universities and
financial-aid programs,
virtually anyone who meets entrance requirements
for college can obtain an excellent college
education and open up windows of opportunity
in life.
Another reason those opportunities
will be open to educated young people from middle-
class and poorer
backgrounds is that hiring is
more meritocratic today than ever before. In
principle, at least, we have always been a
society where all people are equal; yet in the
past, children of the wealthy and the well
connected could expect to
obtain higher-status
jobs and to receive better pay. But the laws and
programs resulting from our civil-rights
struggles have produced a modern business
climate in which jobs are available on an equal-
opportunity basis, and in
which candidates
have a legal right to be judged on the merit of
their educational background and experience.
In conclusion, education is probably the main
factor in opening doors to success for young
people in our society. The
fact that education
has supplanted money and property in this role is
owing to a more egalitarian system of higher
education, as well as to more merit-based
hiring practices that generally value individual
education over family
fortune or connections.
13. “Responsibility for preserving the natural
environment ultimately belongs to each individual
person, not to government.”
While nearly
everyone would agree in principle that certain
efforts to preserve the natural environment are in
humankind’s best interest, environmental
issues always involve a tug of war among
conflicting political and economic
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interests.
For
this reason,
and
because
serious environmental problems are
generally large in scale, government
participation is needed to ensure
environmental preservation.
Experience tells
us that individuals (and private corporations
owned by individuals) tend to act on behalf of
their
own short-term economic and political
interest, not on behalf of the environment or the
public at large. For example,
current
technology makes possible the complete elimination
of polluting emissions from automobiles.
Nevertheless,
neither automobile manufacturers
nor consumers are willing or able to voluntarily
make the short-term sacrifices
necessary to
accomplish this goal. Only the government holds
the regulatory and enforcement power to impose the
necessary standards and to ensure that we
achieve such goals.
Aside from the problems of
self-interest and enforcement, environmental
issues inherently involve public health
and
are far too pandemic in nature for individuals to
solve on their own. Many of the most egregious
environmental
violations traverse state and
sometimes national borders. Environmental hazards
are akin to those involving food
and drug
safety and to protecting borders against enemies;
individuals have neither the power nor the
resources to
address these widespread hazards.
In the final analysis, only the authority and
scope of power that a government possesses can
ensure the attainment
of agreed-upon
environmental goals. Because individuals are
incapable of assuming this responsibility,
government
must do so.
16. “Public
buildings reveal much about the attitudes and
values of the society that builds them.
Today’s new schools, courthouses, airports,
and libraries, for example, reflect the attitudes
and
values of today’s society.”
The extent
to which new public buildings reflect societal
values and attitudes depends on whether one
considers a
building’s intended function or
its design. In the former sense, new public
buildings do mirror society, while in the
latter sense they do not.
The intended
uses of new public buildings say something about
our priorities and values as a society. For
example,
proliferation of public cultural
centers and schools reflects a societal concern
for the arts and education,
respectively,
while new prison construction indicates a
heightened concern for safety and security.
The design of new public buildings, however,
fails to mirror society, for two reasons. First,
modern democratic
states do not have the
luxury of making cultural “statements” at any
expense. Functionality and fiscal accountability
dictate the face of public architecture today.
Second, public participation in the process is
limited. New buildings
typically reflect the
architect’s eccentric vision or the preference of
a few public officials, not the populace’s
values and attitudes. In England, for example,
Prince Charles oversees and approves the design of
new public
buildings. The resulting
conventional designs suggest his unwillingness to
break from tradition. Yet it would seem
unfair
to assign his lack of vision to English society.
In Denver, the controversial design of a new
airport met with
public outcry for its
appearance, expense, and lack of functionality.
Does the airport reflect the values of Denver’s
denizens? Probably not.
In conclusion,
while modern public buildings seem to reflect the
values and attitudes of a society in their
function,
they do not necessarily do so in
their design.
18. “If the primary duty and
concern of a corporation is to make money, then
conflict is inevitable
when the corporation
must also acknowledge a duty to serve society.”
We take for granted that a primary objective
and obligation of a corporation is to maximize
profits. But does this
mean a corporation
cannot also fulfill its obligations to society?
The speaker claims that the two duties necessarily
conflict. In my view, however, a corporation’s
duties to maximize shareholder wealth and to serve
society will at
times coincide and at times
conflict; and when they do conflict, neither takes
automatic precedence over the other.
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Beyond the obvious duty to maximize
shareholder wealth, corporations indeed owe a duty
to serve society,
especially the immediate
community, which permits corporations to operate
in exchange for an implicit promise that
the
corporations will do no harm and will bring some
benefit to the community. These duties can often
be fulfilled
together. For example, a
successful corporation brings jobs and related
economic benefit to the community. And, by
contributing to community activities and
changes in other ways, the corporation gains a
reputation for social
responsibility that
often helps it become even more successful.
However, at times these duties do conflict.
Consider, for instance, a company that unknowingly
leaks into the ground
a toxic substance that
threatens to contaminate local groundwater. While
the company may favor an inexpensive
containment program, community leaders may
want the company to go further by cleaning up and
restoring their
environment—even if the
expense will force the company to leave and take
jobs from the community. Whatever the
company
decides, it should not assume that protecting
profits automatically outweighs social obligation.
In many
instances it does not, as highly
visible tobacco, automobile safety, and asbestos
liability cases aptly illustrate. Such
examples reveal a limit as to how far a
corporation can ethically go in trading off the
well being of the community
for the sake of
its own profits.
In sum, corporations have
duties both to do well and to do good. Although
conflict between these duties is not
inevitable, it does occur. Determining which
duty takes precedence in time of conflict requires
careful
consideration of all the ethical
ramifications of each alternative.
21. “Job
security and salary should be based on employee
performance, not on years of service.
Rewarding employees primarily for years of
service discourages people from maintaining
consistently high levels of productivity.”
According to the statement, in order to ensure
high productivity, companies should base their
employees’ salaries
and job security solely on
job performance, and not on length of service to
the company. I agree that salary
increases and
job security are powerful incentives to high
achievement and should generally go to those who
do the
best work. However, to ensure employee
productivity, companies must also reward tenured
employees with
cost-of-living raises—though
not with job security.
On the one hand,
rewarding average job performance with large pay
increases or promises of job security is a waste
of resources—for two reasons. First,
complacent employees will see no reason to become
more productive. Secondly,
those normally
inclined to high achievement may decide the effort
isn’t worthwhile when mediocre efforts are
amply compensated. Companies should,
therefore, adjust their pay schedules so that the
largest salaries go to the
most productive
employees.
On the other hand, employees who
perform their jobs satisfactorily should be given
regular, though small,
service-based pay
increases—also for two reasons. First, the cost of
living is steadily rising, so on the principle of
fair compensation alone, it is unjust to
condemn loyal employees to de facto salary
reductions by refusing them
cost-of-living
raises. Secondly, failure to adjust salaries to
reflect the cost of living may be
counterproductive for
the firm, which will
have difficulty attracting and retaining good
employees without such a policy.
In the final
analysis, the statement correctly identifies job
performance as the single best criterion for
salary and
job security. However, the
statement goes too far; it ignores the fact that a
cost-of-living salary increase for
tenured
employees not only enhances loyalty and, in the
end, productivity, but also is required by
fairness.
24. “A powerful business leader has
far more opportunity to influence the course of a
community or
a nation than does any government
official.”
Historical examples of both
influential public officials and influential
business leaders abound. However, the power
of
the modern-era business leader is quite different
from that of the government official. On balance,
the CEO
seems to be better positioned to
influence the course of community and of nations.
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Admittedly the opportunities for the
legislator to regulate commerce or of the jurist
to dictate rules of equity are
official and
immediate. No private individual can hold that
brand of influence. Yet official power is tempered
by our
check-and-balance system of government
and, in the case of legislators, by the voting
power of the electorate. Our
business leaders
are not so constrained, so, their opportunities
far exceed those of any public official. Moreover,
powerful business leaders all too often seem
to hold de facto legislative and judicial power by
way of their direct
influence over public
officials, as the Clinton Administration’s fund-
raising scandal of 1997 illuminated all too well.
The industrial and technological eras have
bred such moguls of capitalism as Pullman,
Rockefeller, Carnegie, and
Gates, who by the
nature of their industries and their business
savvy, not by force of law, have transformed our
economy, the nature of work, and our very day-
to-day existence. Of course, many modern-day
public servants have
made the most of their
opportunities—for example, the crime-busting mayor
Rudolph Giuliani and the new-dealing
President
Franklin Roosevelt. Yet their impact seems to pale
next to those of our modern captains of industry.
In sum, modem business leaders by virtue of
the far-reaching impact of their industries and of
their freedom from
external constraints, have
supplanted lawmakers as the great opportunists of
the world and prime movers of
society.
25.
“The best strategy for managing a business, or any
enterprise, is to find the most capable people
and give them as much authority as possible.”
Is the most effective management approach to
hire the best people, then to give them as much
autonomy as
possible to serve the firm’s
goals? This strategy would certainly enhance an
employee’s sense of involvement,
purpose and
personal worth. It would also benefit the firm by
encouraging employees to work creatively and
productively. But the strategy requires two
constraints to operative effectively.
First,
the strategy must be constrained by strong
leadership that provides clear vision and
direction. Simply putting
the most capable
people together, and letting them loose on
projects will provide neither. Thinking so
involves the
mistaken assumption that just
because the parts of a whole are good, the
collection of the parts into a whole will be
equally good. Business organizations are more
than just the sums of their excellent parts; to be
similarly excellent,
the organization must
also be unified and cohesive. And it is strong and
visionary leadership that provides these two
ingredients.
Second, the strategy must be
constrained by an organizational structure that
brings all individual efforts together
as a
coherent whole. Of course, structure can be
crippling, heavily layered; overly bureaucratic
organizations
probably stifle more creative
productivity than they inspire. Still, individuals
will be capable at some things and not
others,
so some organization of efforts is always called
for. The moderate—and perhaps optimal—approach
would
be to create a structure that gives
individuals some authority across areas relating
to their field of expertise, while
reserving
final authority for higher-level managers. For
example, no individual in a finance department
should have
much authority over a design
department. However, within the design department,
individual researchers, artists,
drafters, and
engineers can all contribute meaningfully to one
another’s projects, and a flexible organizational
structure would allow them to do so.
In
sum, the advice to hire the best people and give
them wide authority requires modification. Hiring
capable people
and granting them some
concurrent authority across areas related to their
expertise is better advice. Moreover,
solid
leadership and a cohesive organizational structure
are prerequisites—both are needed to coordinate
individual
efforts toward the accomplishment
of common goals.
29. “Too many people think
only about getting results. The key to success,
however, is to focus on
the specific task at
hand and not to worry about results.”
This
advice means fundamentally that if we focus our
attention on the details of a project rather than
on the end
product, the result will be better
than if we proceed the other way around.
Admittedly, this advice has some merit;
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by focusing on the details at hand one is less
likely to become discouraged by the daunting or
overwhelming tasks
ahead in an ambitious
project. Otherwise, however, I think this advice
is poor,
The central problem with this advice
is that focusing attention completely on the task
at hand without reference to
how that task is
related to the end product would be virtually
impossible to do. The reason for this is simple.
Without some reference to a goal or a result
we would have no idea of what task to perform in
the first place. As a
result, the various
tasks we engage in would be somewhat random and,
in turn, no matter how diligent and careful we
were in performing them the likelihood of
producing worthwhile or successful end products
would be minimal.
To ensure good results, one
should instead take a balanced approach to the
task at hand. By a balanced approach I
mean
paying attention to both the desired result and
the specific tasks that are required to achieve
it. House
building provides a good example of
this approach. The house plan not only contains a
rendering of the finished
product but also
contains detailed drawings and descriptions of
each of the specific components required to ensure
a successful result. Moreover, the order of
the tasks is determined with reference to this
result. In my estimation,
virtually all
successful projects proceed in the fashion
illustrated in this example.
In sum, I don’t
think that the advice offered in the statement is
worth following. In my view, following this advice
is
more likely to produce unsuccessful results
than successful ones.
31. “Financial gain
should be the most important factor in choosing a
career.”
Financial gain is certainly one
factor to consider when selecting a career. But
many people do not, and should not,
focus on
this factor as the main one. The role that money
plays in career choice should depend on the
priorities,
goals and values of the particular
person making the choice.
The main problem
with selecting a career primarily on the basis of
money is that for many people to do so would be
to ignore one’s personal values, needs, and
larger life goals. Indeed, many people appreciate
this notion when they
choose their career. For
example, some people join one of the helping
professions, such as nursing, teaching or social
work, well aware that their career will not be
financially lucrative. Their choice properly stems
from an overriding
altruistic desire, not from
an interest in financial gain. Others choose to
pursue intellectual or creative
fulfillment—as
writers, artists, or musicians—knowing that they
are trading off dollars for non-tangible rewards.
Still others forego economic gain to work as
full-time parents; for these people, family and
children are of
paramount importance in life.
Finally, many people subordinate economic
prospects to their desire to live in a
particular location; these people may place a
high value on recreation, their physical health,
or being near a circle of
friends.
Another
problem with focusing primarily on money when
selecting a career is that it ignores the notion
that making
money is not an end in the end of
itself, but rather a means of obtaining material
goods and services and of attaining
important
goals—such as providing security for oneself and
one’s family, lifelong learning, or freedom to
travel or to
pursue hobbies. Acknowledging the
distinction, one may nevertheless select a career
on the basis of money—since
more money can buy
more goods and services as well as the security,
freedom, and time to enjoy them. Even so, one
must strike a balance, for if these things
that money is supposed to provide are sacrificed
in the pursuit of money
itself, the point of
having money—and of one’s career selection—has
been lost.
In conclusion, economic gain should
not be the overriding factor in selecting a
career. While for a few people the
single-
minded pursuit of wealth may be fulfillment
enough, most people should, and indeed do,
temper
the pursuit of
wealth
against
other values, goals, and
priorities. Moreover, they recognize that money is
merely a means to more
important objectives,
and that the pursuit itself may undermine the
achievement of these objectives.
32. “You can
tell the ideas of a nation by its advertisements.”
In order to determine whether advertisements
reflect a nation’s ideas, it is necessary to
determine whether
advertisements present real
ideas at all, and, if so, whose ideas they
actually reflect. On both counts, it appears
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that advertisements fail to accurately mirror
a nation’s ideas.
Indisputably, advertisements
inform us as to a nation’s values, attitudes, and
priorities—what activities are
worthwhile,
what the future holds, and what is fashionable and
attractive. For instance, a proliferation of ads
for
sport-utility vehicles reflects a societal
concern more for safety and machismo than for
energy conservation and
frugality, while a
plethora of ads for inexpensive on-line brokerage
services reflects an optimistic and perhaps
irrationally exuberant economic outlook.
However, a mere picture of a social more, outlook,
or fashion is not an
“idea”—it does not answer
questions such as “why” and “how”?
Admittedly,
public-interest advertisements do present ideas
held by particular segments of society—for
example,
those of environmental and other
public-health interest groups. However, these ads
constitute a negligible
percentage of all
advertisements, and they do not necessarily
reflect the majority’s view. Consequently, to
assert
that advertisements reflect a nation’s
ideas distorts reality. In truth, they mirror only
the business and product
ideas of companies
whose goods and services are advertised and the
creative ideas of advertising firms. Moreover,
advertisements look very much the same in all
countries. Western and Eastern alike. Does this
suggest that all
nations have essentially
identical ideas? Certainly not.
In sum, the
few true ideas we might see in advertisements are
those of only a few business concerns and interest
groups; they tell us little about the ideas of
a nation as a whole.
34. “All citizens should
be required to perform a specified amount of
public service. Such service
would benefit not
only the country as a whole but also the
individual participants.”
The potential
benefits of mandatory public service must be
weighed against administrative problems and
concerns
about individual liberty. On balance,
the costs to a nation and to the participants
would probably exceed the
benefits.
Admittedly, a colorable argument can be made
for mandatory public service. It would help
alleviate “free-rider”
problems, where those
who do not contribute benefit from the efforts of
those who do. It would mitigate pressing
social problems—with education, public health
and safety, and the environment. It might instill
in participants a
sense of civic duty,
community, and individual responsibility. Finally,
it has worked on a smaller scale, particularly in
urban areas, where renewal projects succeed in
making communities safer, healthier, and more
prosperous.
Far more compelling, however, are
the arguments against mandatory public service.
First, who would make
assignments and decide
what projects are worthwhile, and how would
compliance be assured? Resolving enforcement
issues would require government control, in
turn requiring increased taxes andor cuts in other
social programs,
thereby nullifying the
benefits of mandatory public service. Second, a
mandatory system would open the floodgates
to
incompetence and inexperience. Finally, the whole
notion seems tantamount to Communism insofar as
each citizen
must contribute, according to his
or her ability, to a strong state. Modern history
informs us that such systems do
not work. One
could argue that mandatory public service is
simply a tax in the form of labor rather than
dollars.
However, compulsory labor smacks of
involuntary servitude, whereas financial taxes do
not.
In conclusion, logistical and
philosophical barriers to mandating public service
outweigh its potential benefits for
the nation
as well as for participants.
36. “Businesses
and other organizations have overemphasized the
importance of working as a team.
Clearly, in
any human group, it is the strong individual, the
person with the most commitment
and energy,
who gets things done.”
The relationship
between teamwork and individual strength, energy,
and commitment is complex; whether they
operate in a complementary or antagonistic
manner depends on: (1) the goals toward which the
traits are directed,
(2) the degree of
emphasis on teamwork, and (3) the job of the
individual within an organization.
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A person’s ability to work effectively in a
team is not in consistent per se with personal
strength, energy, and
commitment. If exercised
in a self-serving manner—for example, through
pilfering or back stabbing—these traits
can
operate against the organization. Conversely, if
directed toward the firm’s goals, these traits can
motivate
other team members, thereby advancing
common goals. World War II generals Patton and
Rommel understood this
point and knew how to
bring out the best individual qualities in their
troops, while at the same time instilling a strong
sense of team and common purpose.
Nevertheless, over-emphasizing teamwork can be
counterproductive for an organization. A
successful team
requires both natural leaders
and natural followers; otherwise, a team will
accomplish little. Undue emphasis on
teamwork
may quell initiative among natural leaders,
thereby thwarting team goals. Also, teamwork can
be
overemphasized with a commissioned sales
force of highly competitive and autonomic
individuals. Overemphasis on
teamwork here
might stifle healthy competition, thereby
defeating a firm’s objectives. In other
organizational
areas, however, teamwork is
critical. For example, a product-development team
must progress in lock-step fashion
toward
common goals, such as meeting a rollout deadline.
In sum, individual strength, commitment, and
energy can complement a strong team approach; as
long as individual
autonomy is not undermined,
all can operate in a synergistic manner to achieve
an organization’s goals.
37. “Since science
and technology are becoming more and more
essential to modern society,
schools should
devote more time to teaching science and
technology and less to teaching the
arts and
humanities.”
Because scientific knowledge is
increasingly important in our technological world
and in the practical world of jobs
and
careers, schools should devote sufficient time to
teaching mathematics and science. This is not to
say, however,
that schools should devote less
time to the arts or humanities. To the contrary,
in a technological age the study of
arts and
humanities is probably more important than
ever—for three reasons.
First of all, studying
the arts and humanities can help students become
better mathematicians and scientists. For
example, recent studies of cognitive
development show that studying music at an early
age can strengthen a child’s
later grasp of
mathematics. And understanding philosophical
concepts has helped scientists recognize their own
presuppositions, and frame their central
questions more accurately.
Secondly, studying
the creative and intellectual achievement of
others helps inspire our own creativity and
intellectual questioning. This is particularly
important in an era dominated by technology, where
we run a serious risk
of becoming automatons
who fit neatly into the efficient functioning of
some system.
Finally, technology is valuable
as an efficient means to our important goals. But
neither technology, nor the science
on which
it is founded, decides which goals are best, or
judges the moral value of the means we choose for
their
attainment. We need the liberal arts to
help us select worthwhile ends and ethical means.
In conclusion, schools should not devote less
time to the arts and humanities. These areas of
study augment and
enhance learning in
mathematics and science, as well as helping to
preserve the richness of our entire human legacy
while inspiring us to further it. Moreover,
disciplines within the humanities provide methods
and contexts for
evaluating the morality of
our technology and for determining its proper
direction.
38. “Courtesy is rapidly
disappearing from everyday interactions, and as a
result, we are all the
poorer for it.”
The
speaker claims that simple courtesy and good
manners are disappearing from modern life, and
that the quality
of our lives is therefore
deteriorating. While I do encounter frequent
instances of discourtesy and bad manners, I
also encounter many instances of the opposite
behavior. For this reason, and because negative
experiences tend to
be more memorable and
newsworthy, I find the speaker’s claim to be
dubious.
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Most people encounter multiple instances of
ordinary courtesy and good manners every
day—simple acts such as
smokers asking whether
anyone minds if they light up, people letting
others with fewer items ahead in
grocery-store
lines, and freeway drivers switching lanes to
accommodate faster drivers or those entering via
on-ramps. Admittedly, most people also
encounter discourtesy or poor manners on a daily
basis—people using
obscene language in public
places where young children are present, and
business associates intentionally ignoring
phone calls, to name a few. However, such acts
do not prove that good manners and courtesy are
disappearing; they
simply show that both
courtesy and discourtesy abound in everyday life.
Thus the claim that courtesy and good
manners
are disappearing grossly distorts reality.
Another reason that the claim is suspect is
that we tend to remember negative encounters with
people more so than
positive ones, probably
because bad experiences tend to be more traumatic
and sensational, if not more interesting
to
talk about. The news stories that the media
chooses to focus on certainly support this
rationale. However the
fact that we remember,
hear about, and read about discourtesy more than
about courtesy shows neither that
discourtesy
is increasing nor that courtesy is decreasing. It
simply shows that negative experiences leave
stronger
impressions and tend to be more
sensational. In fact, I suspect that if one were
to tally up one’s daily encounters
with both
types of behavior, one would conclude that good
manners and courtesy are far more prevalent than
the
opposite behavior.
In conclusion, the
speaker’s claim that common courtesy and good
manners are disappearing is not born out by
everyday experience. I suspect the speaker has
failed to consider that negative experiences leave
stronger
impressions on our memory and are
more interesting to relate to others than positive
ones.
39. “It is difficult for people to
achieve professional success without sacrificing
important aspects of
a fulfilling personal
life.”
Are professional success and a
fulfilling personal life mutually exclusive?
Probably not, although it is more difficult
today to achieve both.
Undeniably, today’s
professionals must work long hours to keep their
heads above water, let alone to get ahead in
life financially. This is especially true in
Japan, where cost of living, coupled with
corporate culture, compel
professional males
to all but abandon their families and literally to
work themselves to death. While the situation
here in the states (United States) may not be
as critical, the two-income family is now the
norm, not by choice but
by necessity.
However, our society’s professionals are
taking steps to remedy the problem. First, they
are inventing ways—such
as job sharing and
telecommuting—to ensure that personal life does
not take a backseat to career. Second, they are
setting priorities and living those hours
outside the workplace to the fullest. In fact,
professional success usually
requires the same
time-management skills that are useful to find
time for family, hobbies, and recreation. One need
only look at the recent American
presidents—Clinton, Bush, Reagan, and Carter—to
see that it is possible to lead a
balanced
life which includes time for family, hobbies, and
recreation, while immersed in a busy and
successful career.
Third, more professionals
are changing careers to ones which allow for some
degree of personal fulfillment and
self-
actualization. Besides, many professionals truly
love their work and would do it without
compensation, as a
hobby. For them,
professional fulfillment and personal fulfillment
are one and the same.
In conclusion, given the
growing demands of career on today’s
professionals, a fulfilling personal life remains
possible by working smarter, by setting
priorities, and by making suitable career choices.
40. “With the increasing emphasis on a global
economy and international cooperation, people need
to understand that their role as citizens of
the world is more important than their role as
citizens of a particular country.”
With
the growth of the global economy and the need for
international cooperation, every human being has
assumed
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a role as citizen of the world. Does this mean
that our roles as citizens of our respective
nations are thereby
superseded by our role as
world citizens, as the speaker suggests? Not at
all. Good citizenship at one level is often
compatible with good citizenship at another.
In fact, being a good citizen in one social domain
can help one be a
better citizen in another.
Good global citizenship is not incompatible
with good citizenship at other levels. Consider,
for example, one’s efforts
as a citizen to
preserve the natural environment. One particular
person might, for example: (1) lobby legislators
to
enact laws preserving an endangered redwood
forest, (2) campaign for nationally-elected
officials who support
clean air laws, and (3)
contribute to international rainforest
preservation organizations. This one person would
be
acting consistently as a citizen of
community, state, nation and world.
Admittedly, conflicting obligations sometimes
arise as a result of our new “dual” citizenship.
For example, a U.S.
military official with an
advisory role in a United Nations peace-keeping
force might face conflicting courses of
action—one that would secure U.S. military
interests, and another that would better serve
international interests.
However, the fact
that such a conflict exists does not mean that
either action is automatically more
obligatory—that is, that one’s role as either
U.S. citizen or world citizen must invariably
supersede the other.
Instead, this situation
should be resolved by carefully considering and
weighing the consequences of each course of
action.
Moreover, being a good citizen in
one social context can often help one be a better
citizen in another. For example,
volunteering
to help underprivileged children in one’s
community might inspire one to work for an
international
child-welfare organization. And
inculcating civic values—such as charity and civic
pride—may give rise to personal
traits of
character that transfer to all social domains and
contexts.
In sum, although our “dual”
citizenship may at times lead to conflicts, one
role need not automatically take
precedence
over the other. Moreover, the relationship between
the two roles is, more often than not, a
complementary one—and can even be synergistic.
45. “The most effective way for a
businessperson to maximize profits over a long
period of time is
to follow the highest
standards of ethics.”
The speaker claims that
following high ethical standards is the best way
to maximize profits in the long run.
However,
this claim seems to be more of a normative
statement than an empirical observation. The issue
is more
complex than the speaker suggests. In
my observation, the two objectives at times
coincide but at other times
conflict.
In
many ways behaving ethically can benefit a
business. Ethical conduct will gain a company good
reputation that
earns repeated business.
Treating suppliers, customers and others fairly is
likely to result in their reciprocating.
Finally, a company that treats its employees
fairly and with respect will gain their loyalty
which, in turn, usually
translates into higher
productivity.
On the other hand, taking the
most ethical course of action may in many cases
reduce profits, in the short run and
beyond.
Consider the details of a merger in which both
firms hope to profit from a synergy gained
thereby. If the
details of the merger hinge on
the ethical conviction that as few employees as
possible should lose their jobs, the
key
executives may lose sight of the fact that a
leaner, less labor-intensive organization might be
necessary for
long-term survival. Thus, undue
concern with ethics in this case would results in
lower profits and perhaps ultimate
business
failure.
This merger scenario points out a
larger argument that the speaker misses entirely-
that profit maximization is per
se the highest
ethical objective in private business. Why? By
maximizing profits, businesses bestow a variety of
important benefits on their community and on
society: they employ more people, stimulate the
economy, and
enhance healthy competition. In
short, the profit motive is the key to ensuring
that the members of a free market
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society survive and thrive. While this
argument might ignore implications for the natural
environment and for
socioeconomic justice, it
is a compelling argument nonetheless.
Thus the
choice to follow high ethical standards should not
be made by thinking that ethical conduct is
profitable.
While in some cases a commitment
to high ethical standards might benefit a company
financially, in many cases it
will not. In the
final analysis, businesses might best be advised
to view their attempts to maximize profits as
highly
ethical behavior.
46. Businesses
are as likely as are governments to establish
large bureaucracies, but bureaucracy is
far
more damaging to a business than it is to a
government.
Contrary to the statement’s
premise, my view is that businesses are less
likely than government to establish large
bureaucracies, because businesses know that
they are more vulnerable than government to damage
resulting from
bureaucratic inefficiencies. My
position is well supported by common sense and by
observation.
First, public administrators lack
the financial incentives to avoid bureaucratic
waste. In contrast, inefficiencies in a
private corporation will reduce profits,
inflicting damage in the form of job cuts,
diminishing common-stock value,
and reducing
employee compensation. These are ample incentives
for the private firm to minimize bureaucratic
waste.
Second, there is almost no
accountability among government bureaucrats. The
electorate’s voting power is too
indirect to
motivate mid-level administrators, whose salaries
and jobs rarely depend on political elections. In
contrast, private corporations must pay strict
attention to efficiency, since their shareholders
hold an immediate
power to sell their stock,
thereby driving down the company’s market value.
Third, government is inherently monopolistic,
large, and unwieldy; these features breed
bureaucracy. Admittedly
some corporations
rival state governments in size. Yet even among
the largest companies, the profit motive breeds a
natural concern for trimming waste, cutting
costs, and streamlining operations. Even virtual
monopolies strive to
remain lean and nimble in
order to maintain a distance from upstart
competitors. When government pays lip service
to efficiency, shrewd listeners recognize this
as political rhetoric designed only to pander to
the electorate.
In the final analysis,
financial incentives, accountability, and
competition all
distinguish
private
business
from
government, both in
terms of their likelihood of establishing large
bureaucracies and in terms of the damage that
these bureaucracies can inflict on the
organization.
57. “Everywhere, it seems, there
are clear and positive signs that people are
becoming more
respectful of one another’s
differences.”
In determining whether we are
becoming more respectful of one another’s
differences, one must examine both
overt
actions and underlying motives, as well as
examining whether our differences are increasing
or decreasing.
The issue, therefore, is quite
complex, and the answer is unclear.
Disrespect
for one another’s differences manifests itself in
various forms of prejudice and discrimination.
Since
the civil rights and feminist movements
of the 60s and 70s, it would seem that we have
made significant progress
toward eliminating
racial and sexual discrimination. Anti-
discriminatory laws in the areas of employment,
housing,
and education, now protect all
significant minority groups racial minorities and
women, the physically challenged and,
more
recently, homosexuals. Movies and television
shows, which for better or worse have become the
cynosure of
our cultural attention, now tout
the rights of minorities, encouraging acceptance
of and respect for others.
However, much of
this progress is forced upon us legislative.
Without Title 10 and its progenies, would we
voluntarily refrain from the discriminatory
behavior that the laws prevent? Perhaps not.
Moreover, signs of
disrespect are all around
us today. Extreme factions still rally around
bigoted demagogues; the number of “hate
crimes” is increasing alarmingly; and school-
age children seem to flaunt a disrespect toward
adults as never before.
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Finally, what appears to be respect for one
another’s differences may in fact be an increasing
global
homogeneity—that is, we are becoming
more and more alike.
In sum, on a societal
level it is difficult to
distinguish between
genuine respect for one another’s differences
on the
one hand and
legislated
morality and increasing homogeneity
on the
other.
Accordingly, the claim that we are
becoming more respectful of one another’s
differences is somewhat dubious.
60.
“Employers should have no right to obtain
information about their employees’ health or other
aspects of their personal lives without the
employees’ permission.”
Determining whether
employers should have access to personal
information about employees requires that the
interests of businesses in ensuring
productivity and stability be weighed against
concerns about equity and privacy
interests.
On balance, my view is that employers should not
have the right to obtain personal information
about
current employees without their consent.
A business’ interest in maintaining a stable,
productive workforce clearly justifies right of
access to certain
personal information about
prospective employees. Job applicants can easily
conceal personal information that
might
adversely affect job performance, thereby damaging
the employer in terms of low productivity and high
turnover. During employment, however, the
employee’s interests are far more compelling than
those of the employer,
for three reasons.
First, the employer has every opportunity to
monitor ongoing job performance and to replace
workers who fail to
meet standards, regardless
of the reason for that failure. Second, allowing
free access to personal information
about
employees might open the floodgates to
discriminatory promotions and salary adjustments.
Current federal
laws—which protect employees
from unfair treatment based on gender, race, and
marital status, may not adequately
guard
against an employer’s searching for an excuse to
treat certain employees unfairly. Third, access to
personal
information without consent raises
serious privacy concerns, especially where
multiple individuals have access to the
information. Heightening this concern is the
ease of access to information which our burgeoning
electronic
Intranets make possible.
In
sum, ready access to certain personal information
about prospective employees is necessary to
protect
businesses; however, once hired, an
employee’s interest in equitable treatment and
privacy far outweighs the
employer’s interest
in ensuring a productive and stable workforce.
62. “What education fails to teach us is to
see the human community as one. Rather than focus
on
the unique differences that separate one
nation from another, education should focus on the
similarities among all people and places on
Earth.”
This view of education seems to
recommend that schools stress the unity of all
people instead of their diversity.
While I
agree that education should include teaching
students about characteristics that we all share,
doing so need
not necessarily entail shifting
focus away from our differences. Education can and
should include both.
On the one hand, we are
in the midst of an evolving global community where
it is increasingly important for people to
recognize our common humanity, as well as
specific hopes and goals we all share. People
universally prefer health to
disease, being
nourished to starving, safe communities to crime-
riddled ones, and peace to war. Focusing on our
unity will help us realize these hopes and
goals. Moreover, in our pluralistic democracy it
is crucial to find ways to
unify citizens from
diverse backgrounds. Otherwise, we risk being
reduced to ethnic, religious or political factions
at war with one another, as witnessed recently
in the former Yugoslavia. Our own diverse society
can forestall such
horrors only if citizens
are educated about the democratic ideals,
heritage, rights and obligations we all have in
common.
On the other hand, our schools
should not attempt to erase, ignore, or even play
down religious, ethnic or cultural
diversity.
First of all, schools have the obligation to teach
the democratic ideal of tolerance, and the best
way to
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teach tolerance is to educate people about
different religions, cultures and so on. Moreover,
educating people about
diversity might even
produce a unifying effect—by promoting
understanding and appreciation among people from
all
backgrounds.
In conclusion, while it
may appear paradoxical to recommend that education
stress both unity and diversity, it is not.
Understanding our common humanity will help us
achieve a better, more peaceful world. Toward the
same end, we
need to understand our
differences in order to better tolerate them, and
perhaps even appreciate them. Our
schools can
and should promote both kinds of understanding by
way of a balanced approach.
65. “The rise of
multinational corporations is leading to global
homogeneity*. Because people
everywhere are
beginning to want the same products and services,
regional differences are
rapidly
disappearing.”
Although global homogeneity in
a broader sense may not be as inexorable as the
speaker here suggests, I agree that
multinational corporations are indeed creating
global sameness in consumer preferences. This
homogeneity is
manifested in two concurrent
megatrends: (1) the embracing of American popular
culture throughout the world, and
(2) a
synthesis of cultures, as reflected in consumer
preferences.
The first trend is toward
Americanization of popular culture throughout the
world. In food and fashion, once a
nation’s
denizens “fall into the Gap” or get a taste of a
Coke or Big Mac, their preferences are forever
Westernized.
The ubiquitous Nike “swoosh,”
which nearly every soccer player in the world will
soon don, epitomizes this
phenomenon. In
media, the cultural agendas of giants such as
Time-Warner now drive the world’s entertainment
preferences. The Rolling Stones and the stars
of America’s prime-time television shows are
revered among young
people worldwide, while
Mozart’s music, Shakespeare’s prose, and Ghandi’s
ideology are largely ignored.
A second
megatrend is toward a synthesis of cultures into a
homogenous stew. The popularity of “world music”
and
of the “New Age” health care and leisure-
time activities aptly illustrate this blending of
Eastern, Western and
third-world cultures.
Perhaps nowhere is the cultural-stew paradigm more
striking, and more bland (blander), than
at
the international “food courts” now featured in
malls throughout the developed world.
These
trends appear inexorable. Counter-attacks, such as
Ebonies, rap music, and bilingual education,
promote the
distinct culture of minority
groups, but not of nations. Further homogenization
of consumer preferences is all but
ensured by
failing trade barriers, coupled with the global
billboard that satellite communications and the
Internet
provide.
In sum, American
multinationals have indeed instigated a
homogeneous global, yet American-style,
consumerism—one which in all likelihood will
grow in extent along with free-market capitalism
and global
connectivity.
68. “Since the
physical work environment affects employee
productivity and morale, the employees
themselves should have the right to decide how
their workplace is designed.”
I agree that
physical workspace can affect morale and
productivity and that, as a result, employees
should have a
significant voice in how their
work areas are designed. However, the speaker
suggests that each employee should
have full
autonomy over his or her immediate workspace, I
think this view is too extreme, for it ignores two
important problems that allowing too much
freedom over workspace can create.
On the one
hand, I agree that some aspects of workspace
design are best left to the individual preferences
of each
worker. Location of personal tools and
materials, style and size of desk chair, and even
desk lighting and decorative
desk items, can
each play an important role in a worker’s comfort,
psychological wellbeing, concentration, and
efficiency. Moreover, these features involve
highly subjective preferences, so it would be
inappropriate for anyone
but the worker to
make such choices.
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On the other hand, control over one’s
immediate workspace should not go unchecked, for
two reasons. First, one
employee’s workspace
design may inconvenience, annoy, or even offend
nearby coworkers. For example, pornographic
pinups may distract some coworkers and offend
others, thereby impeding productivity, fostering
ill-will and
resentment, and increasing
attrition—all to the detriment of the company.
Admittedly, the consequences of most
workspace
choices would not be so far-reaching. Still, in my
observation many people adhere, consciously or
not, to
the adage that one person’s rights
extend only so far as the next person’s nose. A
second problem with affording
too much
workspace autonomy occurs when workspaces are not
clearly delineated—by walls and doors—or when
workers share an immediate workspace. In such
cases, giving all workers concurrent authority
would perpetuate
conflict and undermine
productivity.
In conclusion, although
employees should have the freedom to arrange their
work areas, this freedom is not
absolute.
Managers would be well-advised to arbitrate
workspace disputes and, if needed, assume
authority to make
final decisions about
workspace design.
72. “Companies should not
try to improve employees’ performance by giving
incentives—for
example, awards or gifts. These
incentives encourage negative kinds of behavior
instead of
encouraging a genuine interest in
doing the work well.”
Providing employee
incentives can be a double-edged sword. On the one
hand, the promise of bonuses or gifts can
spur
workers to higher achievement. On the other hand,
incentives can create resentment and internal
competitiveness that are damaging to morale
and to the organization. Even so, I think a
carefully designed incentive
program can
operate to the net benefit (of) a company.
Incentive programs are counterproductive when
the distribution of rewards appears to be
personally biased, when
the program recognizes
just one kind among many important jobs in the
organization, or when there are too few
rewards available. For example, if a manager
regularly rewards an employee who is perceived to
be a favorite,
coworkers will be resentful. Or
if the company decides to recognize high sales,
while ignoring an especially precise
cost-
assessment from the accounting department, the
accountants may feel their work is not valued.
Finally, if
rewards are too few, some
employees will become overly competitive, while
others may simply stop trying.
However,
incentive programs can be designed to avoid such
pitfalls. First, the company must determine that
it can
provide sufficient rewards to motivate
all employees. Then it must set, and follow, clear
and non-arbitrary
guidelines for achievement.
Finally, management should provide appropriate
incentives throughout the organization,
thereby sending the message that all work is
valued. Admittedly, even a thoughtfully designed
incentive program
cannot entirely prevent
back-stabbing and unfair competitive tactics. But
watchful management can quell much of
this
behavior, and the perpetrators usually show their
true colors in time.
In sum, I think that the
productivity inspired by thoughtful incentive
programs will very likely outweigh any negative
consequences. In the final analysis, then, I
disagree with the speaker’s recommendation against
their use.
75. “There are essentially two
forces that motivate people: self-interest and
fear.”
The speaker claims that people are
motivated only by fear and self-interest. This
claim relies on the belief that
human beings
are essentially selfish, or egoistic. In my view,
the speaker oversimplifies human nature, ignoring
the
important motivating force of altruism.
On the one hand, I agree that most of our
actions result in large part from self-interest
and from our survival
instincts, such as fear.
For example, our educational and vocational lives
are to a great extent motivated by our
interest in ensuring our own livelihood,
safety, health, and so on. We might perpetuate bad
personal relationships
because we are
insecure—or afraid—of what will happen to us if we
change course. Even providing for our own
children may to some extent be motivated by
selfishness—satisfying a need for fulfillment or
easing our fear that
we will be alone in our
old age.
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On the other hand, to assert that all of our
actions are essentially motivated by self-interest
and fear is to
overemphasize one aspect of
human nature. Humans are also altruistic—that is,
we act to benefit others, even
though doing so
may not be in our own interest. The speaker might
claim that altruistic acts are just egoistic ones
in
disguise—done to avoid unpleasant feelings
of guilt, to give oneself pleasure, or to obligate
another person. However,
this counter argument
suffers from three critical problems. First, some
examples of altruism are difficult to
describe
in terms of self-interest alone. Consider the
soldier who falls on a grenade to save his
companions. It would
be nonsensical to assert
that this soldier is acting selfishly when he
knows his action will certainly result in his own
immediate death. Second, the argument offends
our intuition that human motivation is far more
complex. Third, it
relies on a poor
assumption; just because we feel good about
helping others, it does not follow that the only
reason
we help is in order to feel good.
In sum, the speaker oversimplifies human
nature. All human motivation cannot be reduced to
fear and self-interest.
We can also be
motivated by altruism, and the pleasure we might
take in helping others is not necessarily an
indication that our actions are selfish.
78. Most people would agree that buildings
represent a valuable record of any society’s past,
but
controversy arises when old buildings
stand on ground that modern planners feel could be
better used for modern purposes.
The issue
of whether to raze an old, historic building to
make way for progress is a complex one, since it
involves a
conflict between our interest in
preserving our culture, tradition, and history and
a legitimate need to create
practical
facilities that serve current utilitarian
purposes. In my view, the final judgment should
depend on a
case-by-case analysis of two key
factors.
One key factor is the historic value
of the building. An older building may be worth
saving because it uniquely
represents some
bygone era. On the other hand, if several older
buildings represent the era just as effectively,
then the historic value of one building might
be negligible. If the building figured centrally
into the city’s history as
a municipal
structure, the home of a founding family or other
significant historical figure, or the location of
important events, then its historic value
would be greater than if its history was an
unremarkable one.
The other key factor
involves the specific utilitarian needs of the
community and the relative costs and benefits of
each alternative in light of those needs. For
example, if the need is mainly for more office
space, then an
architecturally appropriate
add-on or annex might serve just as well as a new
building. On the other hand, an
expensive
retrofit may not be worthwhile if no amount of
retrofitting would permit it to serve the desired
function.
Moreover, retrofitting might
undermine the historic value of the old building
by altering its aesthetic or
architectural
integrity.
In sum, neither modernization for
its own sake nor indiscriminate preservation of
old buildings should guide
decisions in the
controversies at issue. Instead, decisions should
be made on a case-by-case basis, considering
historic value, community need, and the
comparative costs and benefits of each
alternative.
81. “No one can possibly achieve
any real and lasting success or ‘get rich’ in
business by
conforming to conventional
practices or ways of thinking.”
Whether a
conformist can achieve lasting success or “get
rich” in business depends primarily on the type of
business involved. Iconoclasts rise to the top
in newer industries and in those where consumer
demand is in constant
flux. Conformists
ultimately prevail, however, in traditional
service industries ensconced in systems and
regulations.
In consumer-driven industries,
innovation, product differentiation, and
creativity are crucial to lasting success, in
the retail and media sectors, for example,
unconventional products and advertising are
necessary to catch the
attention of consumers
and to keep up with the vagaries of consumer
tastes. Those who take an iconoclastic
approach tend to recognize emerging trends and
to rise above their peers. For example, Ted
Turner’s departure
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from the traditional format of the other
television networks, and the responsiveness of to
burgeoning
Internet commerce, propelled these
two giants to leadership positions in their
industries. And in technology, where
there are
no conventional practices or ways of thinking to
begin with, companies that fail to break away from
last
year’s paradigm are soon left behind by
the competition.
However, in traditional
service industries—such as finance, accounting,
insurance, legal services, and health
care—lasting success and riches come not to
nonconformists but rather to those who can deliver
services most
effectively within the confines
of established practices, policies, and
regulations. Of course, a clever idea for
structuring a deal, or a creative legal
maneuver, may play a role in winning smaller
battles along the way. But such
tactics are
those of conformists who are playing by the same
ground rules as their peers; winners are just
better at
the game.
In conclusion, while
non-conformists tend to be the wildly successful
players in technology-driven and
consumer-
driven industries, traditionalists are the winners
in system-driven industries pervaded by policy,
regulation, and bureaucracy.
87. “As
technologies and the demand for certain services
change, many workers will lose their jobs.
The
responsibility for those people to adjust to such
change should belong to the individual
worker,
not to government or to business.”
As
technology and changing social needs render more
and more jobs obsolete, who is responsible for
helping
displaced workers adjust? While
individuals have primary responsibility for
learning new skills and finding work,
both
industry and government have some obligation to
provide them the means of doing so.
l agree
that individuals must assume primary
responsibility for adjusting to job obsolescence,
especially since our
educational system has
been preparing us for it. For decades, our schools
have been counseling young people to
expect
and prepare for numerous major career changes
during their lives. And concerned educators have
recognized and responded to this eventuality
with a broader base of practical and theoretical
coursework that
affords students the
flexibility to move from one career to another.
However, industry should bear some of the
responsibility as well. It is industry, after all,
that determines the
particular directions
technological progress and subsequent social
change will take. And since industry is mainly
responsible for worker displacement, it has a
duty to help displaced workers adjust—through such
means as on-site
training programs and
stipends for further education.
Government
should also assume some of the responsibility,
since it is partly government money that fuels
technological progress in industry. Moreover,
government should help because it can help—for
example, by ensuring
that grants and federally
insured student loans are available to those who
must retool in order to find new work.
Government can also help by observing and
recording trends in worker displacement and in job
opportunities, and by
providing this
information to individuals so that they can make
prudent decisions about their own further
education
and job searches.
In conclusion,
while individuals should be prepared for future
job changes, both government and industry shoulder
obligations to provide training programs,
funding and information that will help displaced
workers successfully
retool and find new
employment.
107. “The most effective way for
managers to assign work is to divide complex tasks
into their
simpler component parts. This way,
each worker completes a small portion of the task
but
contributes to the whole.”
The stated
opinion is that the most effective way for
managers to assign work is to divide complex tasks
into their
simpler component parts. This
strategy is probably cost-effective in many
situations. However, I think that it works
against important organizational values over
time.
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Distinct divisions of labor are efficient for
a number of reasons. First of all, workers with
few highly specific skills
are usually cheaper
to hire than those with broader education and
experience. Secondly, it is less expensive to
train
employees in narrow areas. Finally,
strict compartmentalization of tasks makes it
easier for managers to control
employees, and,
therefore, to control and increase productivity.
But however profitable this strategy might be in
the short run, it can ultimately work against
the organization.
To begin with, fragmenting
work into small units leads to employee
alienation. Those responsible for only a detailed
component of a project can easily lose sight
of larger organizational goals and their own
importance in achieving
them. Research
indicates that they then become less committed to
their work, and less productive. Of course,
unproductive employees can be replaced. But
replacement is costly; and high employee turnover
is bad for
organizational morale.
In
addition, compartmentalizing tasks can stifle
creativity, as well as undermine self-motivation
and pride in one’s
work. With little
collaboration or even communication between
discrete work units, larger creative insights are
lost.
And, cooperative efforts usually foster
a series of common purpose and pride in
accomplishment.
Of course, diversifying jobs
and increasing worker participation in larger
projects could lead to lower productivity.
But
the experience of large manufacturing corporations
like General Motors shows just the opposite. When
GM
facilities implemented these and other
strategies to improve work-place quality, they
reported that productivity
increased.
In
conclusion, I believe that organizing work into
discrete tasks will compromise important
organizational values like
creativity, self-
motivation, commitment and pride in
accomplishment. So, although there are times when
small
divisions of labor will be necessary,
generally work should be diversified, and workers
should have greater
involvement in projects
overall.
109. “Employees should not have full
access to their own personnel files. If, for
example,
employees were allowed to see certain
confidential materials, the people supplying that
information would not be likely to express
their opinions candidly.”
The issue is whether
employees should have full access to their own
personnel files. The speaker claims that they
should not, pointing out that such access
could diminish the condor of those supplying
information. To some extent,
I agree with this
viewpoint. Although employees are entitled to be
accurately informed about the substance of
performance reviews or complaints in their
files, at times there will be good reason not to
identify information
sources.
First of
all, employers have a right to control some
information pertinent to their business success.
Unproductive or
uncooperative workers can
seriously harm an organization; for this reason,
employers need to have accurate
information
about employee performance. But when employees
have full access to their own personnel files,
co-workers and even supervisors will often
find it difficult to give frank criticism of
underachievers or to report
troublemakers. So
although employees have legitimate claims to know
what has been said about them, they are not
always entitled to know who said it.
Secondly, employers are obligated to control
some information when their employees are accursed
of unlawful
conduct. Since employers are
responsible for wrongdoing at the workplace, they
must investigate charges of, for
example, drug
activity, possession of firearms, or harassment.
But again, without assurances of anonymity,
accusers
may be less forthright. Furthermore,
they may be in jeopardy of retaliation by the
accused. So while workers under
investigation
may be generally informed about complaints or
reports, they should not know who filed them. Even
so,
employers do not enjoy an unlimited right
to gather and keep confidential information about
employees. For example,
it would be unjust to
investigate an employee’s political viewpoints,
religious preference, or sexual orientation. Such
invasions of privacy are not warranted by an
employer’s right to performance-related
information, or duty to
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protect the workplace from criminal
wrongdoing.
In conclusion, limiting employee
access to personnel files is sometimes warranted
to encourage candor and prevent
retaliation
against information sources. At the same time,
employers have no right to solicit or secure
information
about the private lives of their
workers.
111. “The most effective business
leaders are those who maintain the highest ethical
standards.”
The assertion at issue is that
business people who uphold the highest ethical
standards are the most effective
leader. I
strongly agree with this statement. For a while,
unethical behavior might seem effective. But a few
examples from the investment banking industry
keenly illustrate how dishonesty and corruption in
leadership can
bring
a business
to its
knees
, shattering the trust of its employees
and ruining its reputation with clients.
Consider the cases of Michael Milken, former
head of junk bond trading at Drexel Burnham
Lambert, and Paul
Mozer, formerly in charge of
Salomon Brothers’ government bonds trading. Each
of these men engaged in
double-dealing and
other illegal acts,
reaping
tremendous
profits
for their companies, and winning
the admiration of
subordinates and superiors
alike. However, their successes were relatively
short-lived. Securities Exchange
Commission
(SEC) investigations in each case revealed massive
wrongdoing. As a result, Drexel went out of
business.
And Salomon Brothers barely
recovered, after suffering the forced resignations
of its top executives, a financially
devastating loss of reputation, and the exodus
of many valued employees.
Moreover, Salomon’s
survival is probably owing entirely to its
subsequent leadership under Warren Buffett.
Buffett,
who was on the Salomon Brother board
of directors at the time of the scandal, was
brought in to save the
beleaguered company.
His success in keeping it afloat at all can be
directly tied to his sterling ethical reputation
in
the international business community at the
time. Buffett’s reputation restored at least some
lost confidence
among clients and investors,
and probably prompted some employees to reconsider
their decisions to leave the
company.
While not every case of unethical leadership
is quite so public or devastating as these, they
do illustrate an
important point. In any
business, once corruption at the top becomes
known, the predictable outcome will be
damaged
reputation, lower worker morale, and, along with
them, lost productivity.
In conclusion,
unethical conduct at the leadership level in a
company might go unnoticed and serve one’s
interests in
the short-term. However, in the
long run it will work against one’s effectiveness
and may even prove ruinous.
112. “The overall
quality of life in most societies has never been
better than at the present time
because of
recent advancements in such areas as business and
technology.”
The stated opinion is that recent
advancements in business and technology have made
overall quality of life better
than ever. I
disagree somewhat with the speaker’s viewpoint.
For although such advancements have improved our
lives in many respects, they have also
diminished our quality of life in other ways.
Clearly, progress in business and technology
has produced many benefits. For example, we can
research problems
and their solutions in
minutes on the Internet; productivity is at an
all-time high. And we can get more done in less
time, leaving more time for hobbies,
entertainment or other leisure activities. We can
even mix a little work into our
leisure time,
by taking our laptops and cell phones on vacation.
This way, we can stay one step ahead on projects
at
work, anticipating deadlines and staying in
touch with co-workers and important clients.
In addition, leisure time has itself been
enhanced by business and technology. Never before
have we had so many
spectacular diversions
available, or so many leisure- and entertainment-
related businesses vying for our attention.
Moreover, we can obtain everything form
airline tickets to a language course and holiday
wardrobe via the Internet,
in the convenience
of our own homes.
Nevertheless, advances in
business and technology have compromised our
quality of life as well. For all the wonders
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of computers, they have spawned their own
special illnesses and ailments, like severe
eyestrain, back and neck
problems, and carpal
tunnel syndrome. And though we now have a world of
information available in a keystroke, some
of
this information—like pornography, hate group
diatribes and bomb-building instructions—are
harming our society,
especially our children.
Even apparently harmless material, like direct
mail advertising and telephone soliciting, is
endlessly annoying. Finally, family life is
sometimes a casualty of all this progress, with
parents and children
spending more time
transfixed before their computer monitors and less
time together.
In conclusion, advances in
business and technology are a mixed blessing. For
while we enjoy many benefits of this
so-called
progress, in many ways it has changed our lives
for the worse.
(少四篇)
二.Analysis of
Argument Questions
1. The following appeared
as part of an annual report sent to stockholders
by Olympic Foods, a
processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down
because as organizations learn how to do things
better, they become more efficient. In color
film processing, for example, the cost of a
3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-
day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day
service
in 1984. The same principle applies to
the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods
will
soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday,
we can expect that our long experience will enable
us
to minimize costs and thus maximize
profits.”
Citing facts drawn from the color-
film processing industry that indicate a downward
trend in the costs of film
processing over a
24-year period, the author argues that Olympic
Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and
thus maximize profits in the future. In
support of this conclusion the author cites the
general principle that “as
organizations learn
how to do things better, they become more
efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact
that
Olympic Foods has had 25 years of
experience in the food processing industry leads
to the author’s rosy prediction.
This argument
is unconvincing because it suffers from two
critical flaws.
First, the author’s forecast
of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the
gratuitous assumption that Olympic
Foods’
“long experience” has taught it how to do things
better. There is, however, no guarantee that this
is the case.
Nor does the author cite any
evidence to support this assumption. Just as
likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing
from
its 25 years in the food-processing business.
Lacking this assumption, the expectation of
increased efficiency
is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts
drawn from the color-film processing industry are
applicable to the food
processing industry.
Differences between the two industries clearly
outweigh the similarities, thus making the
analogy highly less than valid. For example,
problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely
transportation all affect
the food industry
but are virtually absent in the film-processing
industry. Problems such as these might present
insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering
food-processing costs in the future.
As it
stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To
strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will
enjoy
minimal costs and maximum profits in the
future, the author would have to provide evidence
that the company has
learned how to do things
better as a result of its 25 years of experience.
Supporting examples drawn from
industries more
similar to the food-processing industry would
further substantiate the author’s view.
2. The
following appeared in a memorandum from the
business department of the Apogee
Company.
“When the Apogee Company had all its
operations in one location, it was more profitable
than
it is today. Therefore, the Apogee
Company should close down its field offices and
conduct all
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its operations from a single location. Such
centralization would improve profitability by
cutting
costs and helping the company maintain
better supervision of all employees.”
In this
argument the author concludes that the Apogee
Company should close down field offices and
conduct all its
operations from a single,
centralized location because the company had been
more profitable in the past when all its
operations were in one location. For a couple
of reasons, this argument is not very convincing.
First, the author assumes that centralization
would improve profitability by cutting costs and
streamlining
supervision of employees. This
assumption is never supported with any data or
projections. Moreover, the
assumption fails to
take into account cost increases and inefficiency
that could result from centralization. For
instance, company representatives would have
to travel to do business in areas formerly served
by a field office,
creating travel costs and
loss of critical time. In short, this assumption
must be supported with a thorough
cost-benefit
analysis of centralization versus other possible
cost-cutting andor profit-enhancing strategies.
Second, the only reason offered by the author
is the claim that Apogee was more profitable when
it had operated
from a single, centralized
location. But is centralization the only
difference relevant to greater past profitability?
It is entirely possible that management has
become lax regarding any number of factors that
can affect the bottom
line such as inferior
products, careless product pricing, inefficient
production, poor employee expense account
monitoring, ineffective advertising, sloppy
buying policies and other wasteful spending.
Unless the author can rule
out other factors
relevant to diminishing profits, this argument
commits the fallacy of assuming that just because
one event (decreasing profits) follows another
(decentralization), the second event has been
caused by the first.
In conclusion, this is a
weak argument. To strengthen the conclusion that
Apogee should close field offices and
centralize, this author must provide a
thorough cost-benefit analysis of available
alternatives and rule out factors
other than
decentralization that might be affecting current
profits negatively.
6. The following appeared
as part of an article in a magazine devoted to
regional life.
“Corporations should look to
the city of Helios when seeking new business
opportunities or a
new location. Even in the
recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was
lower than the
regional average. It is the
industrial center of the region, and historically
it has provided more
than its share of the
region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios
is attempting to expand its
economic base by
attracting companies that focus on research and
development of innovative
technologies.”
In this argument corporations are urged to
consider the city of Helios when seeking a new
location or new business
opportunities. To
support this recommendation, the author points out
that Helios is the industrial center of the
region, providing most of the region’s
manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-
average unemployment rate.
Moreover, it is
argued, efforts are currently underway to expand
the economic base of the city by attracting
companies that focus on research and
development of innovative technologies. This
argument is problematic for two
reasons.
To begin with, it is questionable whether the
available labor pool in Helios could support all
types of corporations.
Given that Helios has
attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing
companies in the past, it is unlikely that the
local pool of prospective employees would be
suitable for corporations of other types. For
example, the needs of
research and development
companies would not be met by a labor force
trained in manufacturing skills. For this
reason, it’s unlikely that Helios will be
successful in its attempt to attract companies
that focus or research and
development of
innovative technologies.
Another problem with
the available work force is its size. Due to the
lower than average unemployment rate in
Helios, corporations that require large
numbers of workers would not find Helios
attractive. The fact that few
persons are out
of work suggests that new corporations will have
to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the
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existing workers higher wages in order to lure
them away from their current jobs. Neither of
these alternatives
seems enticing to companies
seeking to relocate.
In conclusion, the author
has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons
for selecting Helios as the site for a
company
wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered
function better as reasons for not relocating to
Helios.
Nor has the author provided compelling
reasons for companies seeking new business
opportunities to choose Helios.
8. The
following appeared in the editorial section of a
corporate newsletter.
“The common notion that
workers are generally apathetic about management
issues is false, or
at least outdated: a
recently published survey indicates that 79
percent of the nearly 1,200
workers who
responded to survey questionnaires expressed a
high level of interest in the topics
of
corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits
programs.”
Based upon a survey among workers
that indicates a high level of interest in the
topics of corporate restructuring
and redesign
of benefits programs, the author concludes that
workers are not apathetic about management issues.
Specifically, it is argued that since 79
percent of the 1200 workers who responded to
survey expressed interest in
these topics, the
notion that workers are apathetic about management
issues is incorrect. The reasoning in this
argument is problematic in several respects.
First, the statistics cited in the editorial
may be misleading because the total number of
workers employed by the
corporation is not
specified. For example, if the corporation employs
2000 workers, the fact that 79 percent of the
nearly 1200 respondents showed interest in
these topics provides strong support for the
conclusion. On the other
hand, if the
corporation employs 200,000 workers, the
conclusion is much weaker.
Another problem
with the argument is that the respondents’ views
are not necessarily representative of the views
of the work force in general. For example,
because the survey has to do with apathy, it makes
sense that only less
apathetic workers would
respond to it, thereby distorting the overall
picture of apathy among the work force.
Without knowing how the survey was conducted,
it is impossible to assess whether or not this is
the case.
A third problem with the argument is
that it makes a hasty generalization about the
types of issues workers are
interested in. It
accords with common sense that workers would be
interested in corporate restructuring and
redesign of benefits programs, since these
issues affect workers very directly. However, it
is unfair to assume that
workers would be
similarly interested in other management
issues—ones that do not affect them or affect them
less directly.
In conclusion, this
argument is not convincing as it stands. To
strengthen it, the author would have to show that
the
respondents account for a significant and
representative portion of all workers.
Additionally, the author must
provide evidence
of workers’ interest other management topics—not
just those that affect workers directly.
9.
The following appeared in the opinion column of a
financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged
consumers devote 39 percent of their retail
expenditure to
department store products and
services, while for younger consumers the average
is only 25
percent. Since the number of
middle-aged people will increase dramatically
within the next
decade, department stores can
expect retail sales to increase significantly
during that period.
Furthermore, to take
advantage of the trend, these stores should begin
to replace some of those
products intended to
attract the younger consumer with products
intended to attract the
middle-aged consumer.”
Sample essay 1:
The argument that
department retail sales will increase in the next
10 years and thus department stores should
begin to replace products to attract middle-
aged consumers is not entirely logically
convincing, since it omits certain
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crucial assumptions
First of all, the
argument ignores the absolute amount of retail
expenditure of middle-aged and younger consumers
devoted to department store products and
services. Although younger consumers spend a
smaller percentage of
their retail expenditure
to department store products than do the middle-
aged consumers, they might actually
spend more
in terms of the absolute amount.
Even if
middle-aged consumers are spending more than
younger ones in department stores, the argument
ignores
the possibility that the trend may
change within the next decade. Younger consumers
might prefer to shop in
department stores than
in other types of stores, and middle-aged
consumers might turn to other types of stores,
too. This will lead to a higher expenditure of
younger consumers in department stores than that
of middle-aged
consumers.
Besides, the
argument never addresses the population difference
between middle-aged consumers and younger ones.
Suppose there are more younger consumers than
the middle-aged ones now, the total population
base of younger
consumers will be bigger than
that of the middle-aged ones if both of them grow
at the same rate in the next
decade. Thus
there will be a bigger younger consumer base.
Based on the reasons I listed above, the
argument is not completely sound. The evidence in
support of the conclusion
does little to prove
the conclusion since it does not address the
assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the
argument might have been more convincing by
making it clear that the absolute population of
middle-aged consumers
are higher than that of
the younger consumers and the number will continue
to grow in the next decade, and that
the
middle-aged consumers will continue to spend more
money in department stores than younger consumers
do in
the next decade.
Sample essay 2:
The argument that retailers should replace
some of the products intended to attract the
younger consumers with
products intended to
attract the middle-aged consumers is not entirely
logically convincing, since it ignores certain
crucial assumptions.
First, the argument
omits the assumption that the business volumes of
both the middle-aged consumers and the
younger
consumers are the same. If the business volume of
the middle-aged consumers’ 39% is smaller than
that of
the younger consumers’ 25%, the retail
sales will not increase during the next decade.
Second, even if the business volumes of both
the middle-aged consumers and the younger
consumers were the same
in the last decade,
the increase of the middle-aged people in the next
decade is not the same as the increase of the
retail expenditure, for the retail trade
depends more on such factors as the economic
circumstances, people’s
consuming desire.
Finally, the argument never assumes the
increase of the younger consumers within the next
decade. If the younger
consumers increase at
the same rate and spend the same amount of money
on the goods and services of department
stores, the retailers should never ignore
them.
Thus the argument is not completely
sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion
that the growing number of
middle-aged people
within the next decade does little to prove the
conclusion—that department stores should begin
to replace some of their products to attract
the middle-aged consumers since it does not
address the assumptions I
have already raised.
Ultimately, the argument might have been
strengthened by making it clear that the business
volumes of both types of consumers are the
same and comparable, that the increase of a
certain type of consumers
are correlated with
the increase of the retail sales, and that the
growth rate of the younger consumers are the
same as that of the middle-aged consumers.
Sample essay 3:
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Based on an expected increase in the number of
middle-aged people during the next decade, the
author predicts
that retail sales at
department stores will increase significantly over
the next ten years. To bolster this prediction,
the author cites statistics showing that
middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage
of their retail
expenditure to department-
store services and products than younger consumers
do. Since the number of
middle-aged consumers
is on the rise and since they spend more than
younger people on department-store goods and
services, the author further recommends that
department stores begin to adjust their
inventories to capitalize on
this trend.
Specifically, it is recommended that department
stores increase their inventory of products aimed
at
middle-aged consumers and decrease their
inventory of products aimed at younger consumers.
This argument is
problematic for two reasons.
First, an increase in the number of middle-
aged people does not necessarily portend an
overall increase in
department-store sales. It
does so only on the assumption that other
population groups will remain relatively
constant. For example, if the expected
increase in the number of middle-aged people is
offset by an equally
significant decrease in
the number of younger people, there will be little
or no net gain in sales.
Second, in
recommending that department stores replace
products intended to attract younger consumers
with
products more suitable to middle-aged
consumers, the author assumes that the number of
younger consumers will
not also increase.
Since a sizable increase in the population of
younger consumers could conceivably offset the
difference in the retail expenditure patterns
of younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be
unwise to make the
recommended inventory
adjustment lacking evidence to support this
assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is
unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the
author would have to provide evidence
that the
population of younger consumers will remain
relatively constant over the next decade.
10.
The following appeared in the editorial section of
a local newspaper.
“This past winter, 200
students from Waymarsh State College traveled to
the state capitol
building to protest against
proposed cuts in funding for various state college
programs. The
other 12,000 Waymarsh students
evidently weren’t so concerned about their
education: they
either stayed on campus or
left for winter break. Since the group who did not
protest is far more
numerous, it is more
representative of the state’s college students
than are the protesters.
Therefore the state
legislature need not heed the appeals of the
protesting students.”
The conclusion in this
argument is that the state legislature need not
consider the views of protesting students. To
support this conclusion, the author points out
that only 200 of the 12,000 students traveled to
the state capitol to
voice their concerns
about proposed cuts in college programs. Since the
remaining students did not take part in this
protest, the author concludes they are not
interested in this issue. The reasoning in this
argument is flawed for two
reasons.
First,
the author assumes that because only one-tenth of
the students took part in the protest, these
students’
views are unrepresentative of the
entire student body. This assumption is
unwarranted. If it turns out, for example,
that the protesting students were randomly
selected from the entire student body, their views
would reflect the
views of the entire college.
Without information regarding the way in which the
protesting students were selected,
it is
presumptuous to conclude that their opinions fail
to reflect the opinions of their colleagues.
Second, the author cites the fact that the
remaining 12,000 students stayed on campus or left
for winter break as
evidence that they are not
concerned about their education. One obvious
rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that
the students who did not participate did so
with the knowledge that their concerns would be
expressed by the
protesting students. In any
case, the author has failed to demonstrate a
logical connection between the students’
alleged lack of concern and the fact that they
either stayed on campus or left for winter break.
Without this
connection, the conclusion
reached by the author that the remaining 12,000
students are not concerned about their
education is unacceptable.
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As it stands, the argument is not well
reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the
author would have to
demonstrate that the
protesting students had some characteristic in
common that biases their views, thereby
nullifying their protest as representative of
the entire college.
11. The following appeared
in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has
served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the
population has decreased and the unemployment
rate has increased. Two businesses have
closed
for each new business that has opened. Under
Varro, who served as mayor for four years
before Montoya, the unemployment rate
decreased and the population increased. Clearly,
the
residents of San Perdito would be best
served if they voted Montoya out of office and
reelected
Varro.”
The recommendation
endorsed in this argument is that residents of San
Perdito vote current mayor Montoya out of
office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The
reasons cited are that during Montoya’s four years
in office the
population has decreased while
unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro’s
term unemployment declined
while the
population grew. This argument involves the sort
of gross oversimplification and emotional appeal
typical
of political rhetoric; for this reason
it is unconvincing.
First of all, the author
assumes that the Montoya administration caused the
unemployment in San Perdito as well as
its
population loss. The line of reasoning is that
because Montoya was elected before the rise in
unemployment and
the decline in population,
the former event caused the latter. But this is
fallacious reasoning unless other possible
causal explanations have been considered and
ruled out. For example, perhaps a statewide or
nationwide recession is
the cause of these
events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn
is part of a larger picture of economic cycles
and trends, and has nothing to do with who
happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is
that Varro enjoyed a
period of economic
stability and Varro’s own administration set the
stage for the unemployment and the decline in
population the city is now experiencing under
Montoya.
Secondly, job availability and the
economic health of one’s community are issues that
affect people emotionally. The
argument at
hand might have been intentionally oversimplified
for the specific purpose of angering citizens of
San
Perdito, and thereby turning them against
the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass
relevant, complex reasoning
in favor of
stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their
conclusions; they are also unfair to the parties
involved.
In conclusion, I would not cast
my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak
argument. The author must provide
support for
the assumption that Mayor Montoya has caused San
Perdito’s poor economy. Moreover, such support
would have to involve examining and
eliminating other possible causal factors. Only
with more convincing evidence
could this
argument become more than just an emotional
appeal.
12. The following appeared as part of
a promotional campaign to sell advertising space
in the Daily
Gazette to grocery stores in the
Marston area.
The conclusion of this argument
is that advertising the reduced price of selected
items in the Daily Gazette will
result in
increased sales overall. To support it, the author
cites an informal poll conducted by sales clerks
when
customers purchased advertised items.
Each time one or more of the advertised items was
sold, the clerks asked
whether the customer
had read the ad. It turned out that two-thirds of
200 shoppers questioned said that they
had
read the ad. In addition, of those who reported
reading the ad, more than half spent over $$100 in
the store.
This argument is unconvincing for
two reasons.
To begin with, the author’s line
of reasoning is that the advertisement was the
cause of the purchase of the sale
items.
However, while the poll establishes a correlation
between reading the ad and purchasing sale items,
and also
indicates a correlation, though less
significantly, between reading the ad and buying
non-sale items, it does not
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establish a general causal relationship
between these events. To establish this
relationship, other factors that
could bring
about this result must be considered and
eliminated. For example, if the four days during
which the poll
was conducted preceded
Thanksgiving and the advertised items were
traditionally associated with this holiday, then
the results of the poll would be extremely
biased and unreliable.
Moreover, the author
assumes that the poll indicates that advertising
certain sale will cause a general increase in
sales. But the poll does not even address the
issue of increased overall sales; it informs us
mainly that, of the people
who purchased sales
items, more had read the ad than not. A much
clearer indicator of the ad’s effectiveness would
be a comparison of overall sales on days the
ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar
days when the ad did not
run.
In sum, this
argument is defective mainly because the poll does
not support the conclusion that sales in general
will
increase when reduced-price products are
advertised in the Daily Gazette. To strengthen the
argument, the author
must, at the very least,
provide comparisons of overall sales reports as
described above.
13. The following appeared as
part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a
local radio station to
local businesses.
“The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our
local radio station this year and was delighted to
see its business increase by 10 percent over
last year’s totals. Their success shows you how
you
can use radio advertising to make your
business more profitable.”
In an attempt to
sell radio advertising time, this ad claims that
radio advertising will make businesses more
profitable. The evidence cited is a ten
percent increase in business that the Cumquat Cafe
has experienced in the
year during which it
advertised on the local radio station. This
argument is unconvincing because two questionable
assumptions must be made for the stated
evidence to support the author’s conclusion.
The first assumption is that radio advertising
alone has caused the increase in business at the
Cumquat Cafe. This
assumption is questionable
because it overlooks a number of other factors
that might have contributed to the
Cumquat’s
success. For example, the Cumquat might have
changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a
coupon
ad campaign in the local print media;
or it might have changed or updated the menu. Yet
another possibility is that a
local competitor
went out of business. These are just a few of the
factors that could help explain the Cumquat’s
growth. Because the author fails to eliminate
these possibilities, the assumption in question
need not be accepted.
Even if it is granted
that radio advertising is responsible for the
Cumquat’s success, another assumption must be
made before we can conclude that radio
advertising will result in increased profits for
businesses in general. We
must also assume
that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be
true of most other businesses. But there are all
kinds of important differences between cafes
and other businesses that could affect how radio
audiences react to
their advertising. We
cannot safely assume that because a small
restaurant has benefited from radio advertising,
any and all local businesses will similarly
benefit.
In conclusion, it would be imprudent
for a business to invest in radio advertising
solely on the basis of the evidence
presented.
To strengthen the conclusion, it must be
established that radio advertising was the
principal cause of
increased business at the
Cumquat. Once this is shown, it must be determined
that the business in question is
sufficiently
like the Cumquat, and so can expect similar
returns from investment in radio ad time.
14.
The following appeared as part of a newspaper
editorial.
“Two years ago Nova High School
began to use interactive computer instruction in
three
academic subjects. The school dropout
rate declined immediately, and last year’s
graduates
have reported some impressive
achievements in college. In future budgets the
school board
should use a greater portion of
the available funds to buy more computers, and all
schools in
the district should adopt
interactive computer instruction throughout the
curriculum.”
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Sample essay 1:
The argument that the
school board should buy more computers and adopt
interactive computer instruction is not
entirely logically convincing, since it
ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First,
the argument assumes that the decline of school
dropout and the achievements of last year’s
graduates’
results from the adoption of
interactive computer instruction. However, there
are several reasons why this might
not be
true. For example, achievements could have been
made in other subjects than the ones with
interactive
computer instruction. Or last
years’ graduates might not have been given the
interactive computer instruction. Or
the
decline of the rate of dropout could be attributed
to stricter discipline applied last year.
Second, even supposing the Nova High School’s
decline of the dropout and last year’s graduates’
achievements
benefit directly from the usage
of interactive computer instruction, the success
of the instruction in one school
may not
ensure the success in other schools. If it does
not suit other schools, the instruction will not
work.
Finally, even if the decline of the rate
of dropout and the achievements of the last year’s
graduates’ are the direct
results of the
interactive computer instruction, we still do not
know whether the school can afford to apply the
instruction on all the subjects or to all the
students. If the school does not have sufficient
fund and has to cut
budgets on other projects
such as the library, the quality of the school’s
education will also compromise.
Thus, the
argument is not completely sound. The evidence in
support of the conclusion that the dropout rate
declined and last year’s graduates made
impressive achievements does little to prove the
conclusion that other
schools should use a
greater portion of their funds to apply the
instruction since it does not address the
assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately,
the argument might have been strengthened by
making it clear that
the decline of the
dropout rate and the achievements of the graduates
are the direct results of interactive
computer
instruction, that the instruction is also
applicable to other schools in the district, and
that the instruction
is affordable to all the
schools in the district.
Sample essay 2:
The editorial recommends that the school board
of Nova High spend a greater portion of available
funds on the
purchase of additional computers
and adopt interactive computer instruction
throughout the curriculum. Two
reasons are
offered in support of this recommendation. First,
the introduction of interactive computer
instruction
in three academic subjects was
immediately followed by a decline in the school
dropout rate. Second, last year’s
graduates
experienced impressive achievements in college.
This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, this argument is a classic
instance of “after this, therefore because of
this” reasoning. The mere
fact that the
introduction of interactive computer instruction
preceded the impressive performance of recent
graduates and the decline in the dropout rate
is insufficient to conclude that it was the cause
of these events. Many
other factors could
bring about these same results. For example, the
school may have implemented counseling and
training programs that better meet the needs
of students who might otherwise leave school to
take jobs. In
addition, the school may have
introduced programs to better prepare students for
college.
Secondly, the author assumes that the
impressive achievements of last year’s graduates
bear some relation to the
introduction of
interactive computer instruction at Nova High.
However, no evidence is offered to support this
assumption. Lacking evidence that links the
achievements of the recent graduates to the
interactive instruction, it
is presumptuous to
suggest that the computer instruction was in some
way responsible for the students’ impressive
performance.
In conclusion, the
recommendation that Nova High spend a greater
portion of available funds on the purchase of
additional computers and adopt interactive
computer instruction throughout the curriculum is
ill-founded. To
strengthen this recommendation
the author would have to demonstrate that the
decline in the dropout rate and the
impressive
performance of recent graduates came about as a
result of the use of computer-interactive
instruction.
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All that has been shown so far is a
correlation between these events.
16. The
following appeared as part of an article in the
education section of a Waymarsh City
newspaper.
“Throughout the last two
decades, those who earned graduate degrees found
it very difficult to
get jobs teaching their
academic specialties at the college level. Those
with graduate degrees
from Waymarsh University
had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But
better times are
coming in the next decade for
all academic job seekers, including those from
Waymarsh.
Demographic trends indicate that an
increasing number of people will be reaching
college age
over the next ten years;
consequently, we can expect that the job market
will improve
dramatically for people seeking
college-level teaching positions in their fields.”
Demographic trends that indicate an increase
in the number of college-aged people over the next
ten years lead the
author to predict an
improved job market for all people seeking
college-level teaching positions in their academic
disciplines. Moreover, the author argues that
since Waymarsh University students with advanced
degrees had an
especially difficult time
finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends
portend better times ahead for Waymarsh
graduates. This argument is problematic in
three important respects.
First, the author
assumes that an increase in the number of college-
aged people over the next decade will
necessarily result in an increase in the
number of people who attend college during this
period. While this is a
reasonable assumption,
it is by no means a certainty. For example, a
world war or economic depression in the next
decade would certainly nullify this
expectation.
Second, even if we grant the
preceding assumption, we must also consider the
additional assumption that increased
university enrollments will lead to an
increase in teaching positions in all fields.
However, it might turn out that some
teaching
specialties are in greater demand than others in
the future, resulting in a disproportionate number
of
teaching positions available in various
fields. Consequently, persons trained in some
fields might find it more
difficult, if not
impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.
Finally, little can be foretold regarding the
employability of Waymarsh graduates in the future
based on the
information provided in the
argument. Lacking information about the reasons
why Waymarsh graduates had an
especially
difficult time finding teaching jobs, it is
difficult to assess their prospects for the
future. It is probable,
however, that since
Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing
graduates in the past, the mere fact that
more
jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure
that Waymarsh graduates will have an easier time
finding teaching
jobs during the next decade.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing.
To strengthen the argument, the author must
provide evidence that
the only major trend in
the next decade will be an increase in the number
of people reaching college age. Regarding
the
future prospects for Waymarsh graduates, the
author must provide evidence that there were no
idiosyncratic
reasons that prevented them from
finding jobs in the past.
17. The following
appeared in an article in a consumer-products
magazine.
“Two of today’s best-selling brands
of full-strength prescription medication for the
relief of
excess stomach acid, Acid-Ease and
Pepticaid, are now available in milder
nonprescription
forms. Doctors have written 76
million more prescriptions for full-strength Acid-
Ease than for
full-strength Pepticaid. So
people who need an effective but milder
nonprescription medication
for the relief of
excess stomach acid should choose Acid-Ease.”
This ad recommends non-prescription Acid-Ease
over non-prescription Pepticaid for relief of
excess stomach acid.
The only reason offered
is that doctors have written 76 million more
prescriptions for the full-strength
prescription form of Acid-Ease than for full-
strength Pepticaid. While this reason is relevant,
and provides some
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grounds for preferring Acid-Ease over
Pepticaid, it is insufficient as it stands because
it depends on three
unwarranted assumptions.
The first assumption is that the prescription
form of Acid-Ease is more popular among doctors.
But this might not
be the case, even though
doctors have written 76 million more prescriptions
for Acid-Ease. Acid-Ease may have
been
available for several more years than Pepticaid;
and in the years when both products were
available, Pepticaid
might have actually been
prescribed more often than Acid-Ease.
The
second assumption is that doctors prefer the
prescription form of Acid-Ease for the reason that
it is in fact
more effective at relieving
excess stomach acid. However, doctors may have
preferred Acid-Ease for reasons other
than its
effectiveness. Perhaps Acid-Ease is produced by a
larger, more familiar drug company or by one that
distributes more free samples. For that
matter, the medical community may have simply been
mistaken in thinking
that Acid-Ease was more
effective. In short, the number of prescriptions
by itself is not conclusive as to whether
one
product is actually better than another.
The
third assumption is that the milder non-
prescription forms of Acid-Ease and Pepticaid will
be analogous to the
full-strength prescription
forms of each. But this might not be the case.
Suppose for the moment that the greater
effectiveness of prescription Acid-Ease has
been established; even so, the non-prescription
form might not
measure up to non-prescription
Pepticaid. This fact must be established
independently.
In conclusion, this ad does not
provide enough support for its recommending non-
prescription Acid-Ease over
non-prescription
Pepticaid. To strengthen its argument, the
promoter of Acid-Ease would have to show that (1)
the
comparison between the number of
prescriptions is based on the same time period;
(2) its effectiveness is the main
reason more
doctors have prescribed it, and (3) the
comparative effectiveness of the two non-
prescription forms is
analogous to that of the
prescription forms.
28. The following appeared
in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“Commuter use of the new subway train is
exceeding the transit company’s projections.
However, commuter use of the shuttle buses
that transport people to the subway stations is
below the projected volume. If the transit
company expects commuters to ride the shuttle
buses
to the subway rather than drive there,
it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or
increase the
price of parking at the subway
stations.”
The author concludes that the local
transit company must either reduce fares for the
shuttle buses that transport
people to their
subway stations or increase parking fees at the
stations. The reasons offered to support this
conclusion are that commuter use of the subway
train is exceeding the transit company’s
expectations, while
commuter use of the
shuffle buses is below projected volume. This
argument is unconvincing because the author
oversimplifies the problem and its solutions
in a number of ways.
To begin with, by
concluding that the transit company must either
reduce shuttle fares or increase parking fees,
the author assumes that these are the only
available solutions to the problem of limited
shuttle use. However, it is
possible that
other factors—such as inconvenient shuttle routing
andor scheduling, safety concerns, or an increase
in carpools—contribute to the problem. If so,
adjusting fares or parking fees would might not
solve the problem.
In addition, the author
assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing
parking fees are mutually exclusive
alternatives. However, the author provides no
reason for imposing an eitheror choice. Adjusting
both shuttle fares
and parking fees might
produce better results. Moreover, if the author is
wrong in the assumption that parking fees
and
shuttle fees are the only possible causes of the
problem, then the most effective solution might
include a
complex of policy changes—for
example, in shuttle fares, parking fees,
rerouting, and rescheduling.
In conclusion,
this argument is weak because the author
oversimplifies both the problem and its possible
solutions.
To strengthen the argument the
author must examine all factors that might account
for the shuttle’s unpopularity.
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Additionally, the author should consider all
possible solutions to determine which combination
would bring about the
greatest increase in
shuttle use.
31. The following appeared as
part of the business plan of an investment and
financial consulting
firm.
“Studies
suggest that an average coffee drinker’s
consumption of coffee increases with age,
from
age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee
consumption remains high. The average
cola
drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines
with increasing age. Both of these trends
have
remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that
the number of older adults will
significantly
increase as the population ages over the next 20
years, it follows that the demand
for coffee
will increase and the demand for cola will
decrease during this period. We should,
therefore, consider transferring our
investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
In this argument a consulting firm recommends
the transfer of investments from Cola Loca to
Early Bird Coffee
because, during the next 20
years, coffee demand will increase while cola
demand will decrease. This prediction is
based
on the expectation that the number of older adults
will significantly increase over the next 20
years,
together with statistics, reportedly
stable for the past 40 years, indicating that
coffee consumption increases with
age while
cola consumption declines with increasing age. For
three reasons, this financial advice may not be
sound.
First, the argument assumes that
relative supply conditions will remain unchanged
over the next twenty years.
However, the
supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well
as other costs of doing business as a producer of
coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a
long time period. These factors may affect
comparative prices of
coffee and cola, which
in turn may affect comparative demand and the
value of investments in coffee and cola
companies. Without considering other factors
that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola
company, the firm
cannot justify its
recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails
to account for the timing of the increase in
coffee consumption. Perhaps the
population
will age dramatically during the next five years,
then remain relatively flat over the following 15
years.
Or perhaps most of the increase in
average age will occur toward the end of the
20-year period. An investor has
more
opportunity to profit over the short and long term
in the first scenario than in the second, assuming
the
investor can switch investments along the
way. If the second scenario reflects the facts,
the firm’s
recommendation would be ill-
founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably
relies on the studies that correlate coffee and
cola consumption with age. The firm
does not
provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the
studies. Moreover, while the phrase “studies
suggest”
may appear to lend credibility to
these claims, the phrase is vague enough to
actually render the claims worthless, in
the
absence of any information about them.
In
conclusion, the firm should not transfer
investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on
the basis of this
argument. To better evaluate
the recommendation, we would need more information
about the study upon which it
relies. We would
also need more detailed projections of population
trends during the next 20 years.
32. The
following appeared in the editorial section of a
West Cambria newspaper.
“A recent review of
the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service
revealed a longer average
response time to
accidents than was reported by a commercial
ambulance squad located in East
Cambria. In
order to provide better patient care for accident
victims and to raise revenue for our
town by
collecting service fees for ambulance use, we
should disband our volunteer service and
hire
a commercial ambulance service.”
In this
argument the author concludes that West Cambria
can increase revenues and provide better care to
accident victims by disbanding the volunteer
ambulance service and hiring a commercial one. The
author reasons
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that this change would yield additional
revenues because service fees could be imposed for
ambulance use. The
author also reasons that
the city would provide better service to accident
victims because a commercial service
would
respond more quickly to accidents than a volunteer
service would. The author’s argument is flawed in
two
respects.
To begin with, the author’s
plan for raising revenue for West Cambria is
questionable. Unless the service fees are
considerable or the accident rate is extremely
high, it is unlikely that significant revenues
will be raised by charging
a fee for ambulance
use. Consequently, revenue generation is not a
good reason to disband the volunteer service and
hire a commercial service.
Next, the
author’s belief that better patient care would be
provided by a commercial ambulance service than by
a
volunteer service is based on insufficient
evidence. The fact that the commercial service in
East Cambria has a
lower average response time
than the volunteer service in West Cambria is
insufficient evidence for the claim that
this
will be the case for all commercial services.
Moreover, the author’s recommendation depends upon
the
assumption that response time to an
accident is the only factor that influences
patient care. Other pertinent
factors—such as
ambulance-crew proficiency and training, and
emergency equipment—are not considered.
In
conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To
strengthen the argument the author would have to
show that
substantial revenue for the town
could be raised by charging service fees for
ambulance use. Additionally, the
author would
have to provide more evidence to support the claim
that commercial ambulance services provide better
patient care than volunteer services.
34.
The following appeared as part of a plan proposed
by an executive of the Easy Credit Company
to
the president.
“The Easy Credit Company would
gain an advantage over competing credit card
services if we
were to donate a portion of the
proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known
environmental organization in exchange for the
use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a
recent poll shows that a large percentage of
the public is concerned about environmental
issues,
this policy would attract new
customers, increase use among existing customers,
and enable us
to charge interest rates that
are higher than the lowest ones available.”
In
this argument the author concludes that the Easy
Credit Company would gain several advantages over
its
competitors by donating a portion of its
profits to a well-known environmental organization
in exchange for the use
of the organization’s
logo on their credit card. The author reaches this
conclusion on the basis of a recent poll that
shows widespread public concern about
environmental issues. Among the advantages of this
policy, the author
foresees an increase in
credit card use by existing customers, the ability
to charge higher interest rates, and the
ability to attract new customers. While the
author’s argument has some merit, it suffers from
two critical
problems.
To begin with, the
author assumes that the environmental organization
whose logo is sought is concerned with the
same environmental issues about which the poll
shows widespread concern. However, the author
provides no
evidence that this is the case. It
is possible that very few credit-card users are
concerned about the issues that
are the
organization’s areas of concern; if so, then it is
unlikely that the organization’s logo would
attract much
business for the Easy Credit
Company.
Next, the author assumes that the
public’s concern about environmental issues will
result in its taking steps to do
something
about the problem—in this case, to use the Easy
Credit Company credit card. This assumption is
unsupported and runs contrary to experience.
Also, it is more reasonable to assume that people
who are concerned
about a particular cause
will choose a more direct means of expressing
their concern.
In conclusion, the author’s
argument is unconvincing as it stands. To
strengthen the argument, the author must show
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a positive link between the environmental
issues about which the public has expressed
concern and the issues with
which this
particular environmental organization is
concerned. In addition, the author must provide
evidence to
support the assumption that
concern about a problem will cause people to do
something about the problem.
38. The following
appeared in the editorial section of a campus
newspaper.
“Because occupancy rates for campus
housing fell during the last academic year, so did
housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus
housing officials should reduce the number of
available housing units, thereby increasing
the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from
choosing to live off-campus, housing officials
should lower the rents, thereby increasing
demand.”
The author of this article argues
that, to reverse declining revenues from campus
housing rentals, campus housing
officials
should decrease the number of available housing
units and reduce rent prices on the units. The
author’s line
of reasoning is that fewer
available units will limit supply while lower
rents will increase demand, thereby improving
overall occupancy rates, and that the
resulting increase in occupancy rates will, in
turn, boost revenues for the
campus. This
reasoning is unconvincing for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that
boosting occupancy rates will improve revenues.
All other factors remaining
unchanged, this
would be the case. However, the author proposes
reducing both the supply of units and their rental
prices. Both of these actions would tend to
reduce revenues. The author provides no evidence
that the
revenue-enhancing effect of a higher
occupancy rate will exceed the revenue-decreasing
effect of reduced supply
and price. Without
such evidence, the argument is unconvincing.
Secondly, the author assumes that lowering
rents will lead to higher revenues by increasing
demand. However, it is
possible that demand
would decrease, depending on the extent of the
rent reduction as well as other factors—such
as overall enrollment and the supply and
relative cost of off-campus housing. Moreover,
even if demand increases by
lowering rents,
revenues will not necessarily increase as a
result. Other factors, such as maintenance and
other
costs of providing campus housing units
and the reduced supply of rental units might
contribute to a net decrease in
revenue.
Thirdly, in asserting that lowering rental
rates will increase demand, the author assumes
that current rental rates
are causing low
demand. However, low demand for student housing
could be a function of other factors. For
instance,
the student housing units may be old
and poorly maintained. Perhaps students find the
campus housing rules
oppressive, and therefore
prefer to live off-campus; or perhaps enrollments
are down generally, affecting campus
housing
occupancy.
In conclusion, the author of this
editorial has not argued effectively for a
decrease in the number of available
campus
housing units and a reduction in rental rates for
those units. To strengthen the argument, the
author must
show that a rent reduction will
actually increase demand, and that the revenue-
enhancing effect of greater demand
will
outweigh the revenue-reducing effect of a smaller
supply and of lower rental rates.
39. The
following appeared in an Avia Airlines
departmental memorandum.
“On average, 9 out of
every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia
Airlines last year filed a
complaint about our
baggage-handling procedures. This means that
although some 1 percent of
our passengers were
unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming
majority were quite
satisfied with them; thus
it would appear that a review of the procedures is
not important to our
goal of maintaining or
increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
The conclusion in this Avia Airlines
memorandum is that a review of the airline’s
baggage-handling procedures will
not further
its goal of maintaining or increasing the number
of Avia passengers. The author’s line of reasoning
is
that the great majority of Avia passengers
are happy with baggage handling at the airline
because only one percent
32
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of passengers who traveled on Avia last year
filed a complaint about Avia’s procedures. This
argument is problematic
in two important
respects.
First, the argument turns on the
assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers
who did not complain were
happy with the
airline’s baggage-handling procedures. However,
the author provides no evidence to support this
assumption. The fact that, on the average, 9
out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to
formally complain
indicates nothing about the
experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It
is possible that many passengers were
displeased but too busy to formally complain,
while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more
complete information
about passengers’
attitudes, we cannot assume that the great
majority of passengers who did not complain were
happy.
Secondly, in the absence of
information about the number of passengers per
flight and about the complaint records
of
competing airlines, the statistics presented in
the memorandum might distort the seriousness of
the problem.
Given that most modern aircraft
carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is
possible that Avia received as many
as 4 or 5
complaints per flight. The author unfairly
trivializes this record. Moreover, the author
fails to compare
Avia’s record with those of
its competitors. It is possible that a particular
competitor received virtually no
baggage-
handling complaints last year. If so, Avia’s one
percent complaint rate might be significant enough
to
motivate customers to switch to another
airline.
In conclusion, the author has failed
to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-
handling procedures at Avia
Airlines is not
needed to maintain or increase the number of
Avia’s passengers. To strengthen the argument, the
author must at the very least provide
affirmative evidence that most Avia passengers
last year were indeed happy
with baggage-
handling procedures. To better evaluate the
argument, we would need more information about the
numbers of Avia passengers per flight last
year and about the baggage-handling records of
Avia’s competitors.
40. The following appeared
as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine.
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its
current trade deficit problem by lowering the
price
of sugar, its primary export. Such an
action would make Sacchar better able to compete
for
markets with other sugar-exporting
countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad
would
increase, and this increase would
substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.”
The author of this article argues that the
country of Sacchar can best solve its current
trade deficit problem by
lowering the price of
its main export, sugar. The line of reasoning is
that this action would make Sacchar more
competitive with other sugar-exporting
countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchar’s
sugar abroad and, in turn,
substantially
reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning
is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.
In
the first place, this argument is based on an
oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit
problem Sacchar
currently faces. A trade-
deficit occurs when a country spends more on
imports than it earns from exports. The
author’s argument relies on the assumption
that earnings from imports will remain constant.
However, the author
provides no evidence that
substantiates this assumption. It is possible that
revenues from imports will increase
dramatically in the near future; if so, the
course of action proposed by the author might be
unnecessary to solve
Sacchar’s trade deficit
problem. Conversely, it is possible that revenues
from imports are likely to decrease
dramatically in the near future. To the extent
that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may
have a negligible
countervailing effect,
depending on the demand for Sacchar’s sugar.
In the second place, increasing sales by
lowering the price of sugar will not yield an
increase in income unless the
increase in
sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income
due to the lower price. This raises three
questions the
author fails to address. First,
will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand?
Second, is demand sufficient to meet
the
increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase
the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the
deficit? In
the absence of answers to these
questions, we cannot assess the author’s proposal.
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In conclusion, the author provides an
incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a
result, provides a questionable
solution. To
better evaluate the proposal, we would need to
know how revenues from imports are likely to
change in
the future. To strengthen the
argument, the author must provide evidence that
demand is sufficient to meet the
proposed
increase in supply, and that Sacchar has
sufficient resources to accommodate the increase.
43. The following appeared in an article in
the health section of a newspaper.
“There is a
common misconception that university hospitals are
better than community or
private hospitals.
This notion is unfounded, however: the university
hospitals in our region
employ 15 percent
fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success
rate in treating patients,
make far less
overall profit, and pay their medical staff
considerably less than do private
hospitals.
Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals
typically divide their time among
teaching,
conducting research, and treating patients. From
this it seems clear that the quality of
care
at university hospitals is lower than that at
other kinds of hospitals.”
In this argument
the author concludes that university hospitals
provide no better care than private or community
hospitals. The author bases this conclusion on
the following claims about university hospitals:
the ones in this region
employ 15 percent
fewer doctors; they have a 20 percent lower
success rate in treating patients; they pay their
staffs less money; they make less profit than
community hospitals; and they utilize doctors who
divide their time
between teaching, research
and treating patients. This argument is
unconvincing for several reasons.
The most
egregious reasoning error in the argument is the
author’s use of evidence pertaining to university
hospitals in this region as the basis for a
generalization about all university hospitals. The
underlying assumption
operative in this
inference is that university hospitals in this
region are representative of all university
hospitals.
No evidence is offered to support
this gratuitous assumption.
Secondly, the only
relevant reason offered in support of the claim
that the quality of care is lower in university
hospitals than it is at other hospitals is the
fact that university hospitals have a lower
success rate in treating
patients. But this
reason is not sufficient to reach the conclusion
in question unless it can be shown that the
patients treated in both types of hospitals
suffered from similar types of maladies. For
example, if university
hospitals routinely
treat patients suffering from rare diseases
whereas other hospitals treat only those who
suffer
from known diseases and illnesses, the
difference in success rates would not be
indicative of the quality of care
received.
Finally, the author assumes that the number of
doctors a hospital employs, its success rate in
treating patients, the
amount it pays its
staff, and the profits it earns are all reliable
indicators of the quality of care it delivers. No
evidence is offered to support this assumption
nor is it obvious that any of these factors is
linked to the quality of
care delivered to
patients. Moreover, the fact that doctors in
university hospitals divide their time among many
tasks fails to demonstrate that they do a
poorer job of treating patients than doctors at
other kinds of hospitals.
In fact, it is
highly likely that they do a better job because
they are more knowledgeable than other doctors due
to
their teaching and research.
In
conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing.
To strengthen the argument the author would have
to
demonstrate that university hospitals in
this region are representative of all university
hospitals, as well as
establishing a causal
link between the various factors cited and the
quality of care delivered to patients.
44. The
following is part of a business plan created by
the management of the Megamart grocery
store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by
20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to
our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s
main concern is the convenience afforded by
one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase
our profits over the next couple of years,
34
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therefore, is to add a clothing department
along with an automotive supplies and repair shop.
We should also plan to continue adding new
departments and services, such as a restaurant and
a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the
only store in the area that offers such a range of
services will give us a competitive advantage
over other local stores.”
The management of
the Megamart grocery store concludes that adding
new departments and services is the surest
way
to increase profits over the next couple of years.
They are led to this conclusion because of a 20
percent
increase in total sates, realized
after the addition of a pharmacy section to the
grocery store. On the basis of this
experience, they concluded that the
convenience of one-stop shopping was the main
concern of their customers.
The management’s
argument is faulty in several respects.
In the
first place, the management assumes that the
increase in total sales was due to the addition of
the pharmacy
section. However, the only
evidence offered to support this conclusion is the
fact that the addition of the pharmacy
preceded the increase in sales. But the mere
fact that the pharmacy section was added before
the increase
occurred is insufficient grounds
to conclude that it was responsible for the
increase. Many other factors could
bring about
this same result. Lacking a detailed analysis of
the source of the sales increase, it would be
sheer folly
to attribute the increase to the
addition of the pharmacy section.
In the
second place, even if it were the case that the
increase in total sales was due to the addition of
the pharmacy
section, this fact alone is
insufficient to support the claim that adding
additional departments will increase sales
even further. It is quite possible that the
addition of the pharmacy section increased sales
simply because there
was no other pharmacy in
the vicinity. The additional proposed departments
and services, on the other hand, might
be well
represented in the area and their addition might
have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the
store. In
other words, there may be relevant
differences between the pharmacy section and the
additional proposed sections
that preclude
them from having a similar effect on the sales of
the store.
In conclusion, the management’s
argument is not well-reasoned. To strengthen the
conclusion, the management must
provide
additional evidence linking the addition of the
pharmacy section to the increase in total sales.
It must also
show that there are no
exceptional reasons for the sales increase due to
the pharmacy section that would not apply
to
the other proposed additions.
46. The
following appeared in a memorandum from the
directors of a security and safety consulting
service.
“Our research indicates that over
the past six years no incidents of employee theft
have been
reported within ten of the companies
that have been our clients. In analyzing the
security
practices of these ten companies, we
have further learned that each of them requires
its
employees to wear photo identification
badges while at work. In the future, therefore, we
should recommend the use of such
identification badges to all of our clients.”
In this argument the directors of a security-
and safety-consulting service conclude that the
use of photo
identification badges should be
recommended to all of their clients as a means to
prevent employee theft. Their
conclusion is
based on a study revealing that ten of their
previous clients who use photo identification
badges have
had no incidents of employee theft
over the past six-year period. The directors’
recommendation is problematic in
several
respects.
In the first place, the directors’
argument is based on the assumption that the
reason for the lack of employee
theft in the
ten companies was the fact that their employees
wear photo identification badges. However, the
evidence revealed in their research
establishes only a positive correlation between
the lack of theft and the
requirement to wear
badges; it does not establish a causal connection
between them. Other factors, such as the use
of surveillance cameras or spot checks of
employees’ briefcases and purses could be
responsible for lack of
employee theft within
the ten companies analyzed.
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In the second place, the directors assume that
employee theft is a problem that is common among
their clients and
about which their clients
are equally concerned. However, for some of their
clients this might not be a problem at all.
For example, companies that sell services are
much less likely to be concerned about employee
theft than those who
sell products. Moreover,
those that sell small products would be more
concerned about theft than those that sell
large products. Consequently, even if wearing
badges reduces employee theft, it might not be
necessary for all of
the firm’s clients to
follow this practice.
In conclusion, the
director’s recommendation is not well supported.
To strengthen the conclusion they must
establish a causal relation between the
wearing of identification badges and the absence
of employee theft. They
also must establish
that the firm’s clients are sufficiently similar
to all profit from this practice.
47. The
following appeared as part of an article in the
business section of a local newspaper.
“The
owners of the Cumquat Cafe evidently made a good
business decision in moving to a new
location,
as can be seen from the fact that the Cafe will
soon celebrate its second anniversary
there.
Moreover, it appears that businesses are not
likely to succeed at the old location: since
the Cafe’s move, three different businesses—a
tanning salon, an antique emporium, and a
pet–grooming shop—have occupied its former
spot.”
In this argument the author concludes
that Cumquat Cafe was correct in its decision to
move to a new location. In
support of this
assessment the author points out that while the
Cafe has been in business for two years at its new
location, three businesses have failed at its
previous location. The author’s line of reasoning
is that the cause of the
failure of the three
businesses is the fact that they all occupied the
same location. This argument is problematic in
two important respects.
In the first
place, no evidence has been offered to support the
assumption that the reason the three businesses
failed was their location. While location is
an important contributing factor to a business’
success or failure, it is not
the only such
factor. Many other reasons—poor business
practices, lack of advertising, or poor customer
service—could just as likely account for their
lack of success. Lacking a detailed analysis of
the reasons these
businesses failed, it would
be foolish to attribute their failure to their
location.
In the second place, while location
may have been a factor which contributed to the
failure of these businesses, the
reason may
not have been the location itself but rather the
suitability of the business to the location. For
example,
a pet-grooming shop or a tanning
salon located in a downtown metropolitan business
district is unlikely to succeed
simply because
this type of business is obviously unsuitable to
the location. On the other hand, a bank in the
same
location might be extremely successful
simply because of its suitability to the location.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is
unconvincing. To strengthen the conclusion, the
author would have to
evaluate other possible
causes of the failure of the three businesses,
then in each case eliminate all possible causes
except location.
52. The following
editorial appeared in the Elm City paper.
“The
construction last year of a shopping mall in
downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since the
mall has opened, a number of local businesses
have closed, and the downtown area suffers from
an acute parking shortage, and arrests for
crime and vagrancy have increased in the nearby
Oak
City Park. Elm City should pay attention
to the example of the Oak City mall and deny the
application to build a shopping mall in Elm
City.”(
新题
)
Discuss how well
reasoned... etc.
“The construction of last
year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City has
done little for the
residents of the
community. Since the mall has opened, a number of
local businesses have
closed, and the downtown
area suffers from an acute parking shortage. In
addition, because the
36
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mall’s owner lives in nearby Elm City, the
profits derived from sales at the mall are not
being
returned to the community. These
problems, coupled with the increase in trash and
litter in
nearby Oak City park, demonstrate
that Oak City did not use good judgment in
allowing the
construction of the mall in the
first place.”(老题)
(此文根据老题写作)In this editorial
the author rebukes Oak City for allowing the
construction of a new downtown
shopping mall.
Citing a number of problems that have occurred
since the building of the mail, the author
concludes
that the residents of Oak City have
not benefited from the mail and that Oak City
exercised poor judgment in
allowing the mail
to be built. Among the problems cited by the
author are the closure of local businesses, lack
of
parking in the downtown area, and increased
trash and litter in a city park near the mall.
Moreover, the author
argues that profits
derived from sales are not benefiting Oak City
because the owner of the mall lives in another
city. The author’s argument is problematic in
several respects.
In the first place, the
author assumes that addition of the new mall is
the cause of the various problems cited. The
only evidence offered to support this claim is
that the construction of the mall occurred before
these problems
manifested themselves. However,
this evidence is insufficient to establish the
claim in question. A chronological
relationship is only one of the indicators of
a causal relationship between two events.
In
the second place, the author has focused only on
negative effects the mall has had on the city. A
more detailed
analysis of the situation might
reveal that the positive benefits for the city far
outweigh the problems on which the
author
focuses. For example, new jobs might have been
created for the residents of Oak City, and tax
revenues
might have been increased for the
city. Lacking a more comprehensive analysis of the
impact of the mail on Oak City,
it is
presumptuous on the part of the author to conclude
that Oak City’s decision to allow the mall to be
built was
incorrect.
In conclusion, the
author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen
the argument the author would have to
demonstrate that the construction of the mall
caused the various problems mentioned. The author
would also have
to show that the negative
effects of the project outweighed the positive
effects.
55. The following appeared in an
Excelsior Company memorandum.
“The Excelsior
Company plans to introduce its own brand of
coffee. Since coffee is an
expensive food
item, and since there are already many established
brands of coffee, the best
way to gain
customers for the Excelsior brand is to do what
Superior, the leading coffee
company, did when
it introduced the newest brand in its line of
coffees: conduct a temporary
sales promotion
that offers free samples, price reductions, and
discount coupons for the new
brand.”
This
company memorandum recommends that Excelsior
conduct a temporary sales promotion for its new
brand of
coffee that includes offering free
samples, price reductions, and discount coupons.
This recommendation is based
on the fact that
Superior, the leading coffee company, used just
such a promotion to introduce the newest brand in
its line of coffees. This argument is
unconvincing because it relies on three
questionable assumptions.
First of all, the
argument rests on the assumption that a
promotional strategy that works for one company
will work
for another. However, Excelsior and
Superior may not be sufficiently similar to
warrant this assumption.
Promotional
techniques that work for a leader with established
name recognition for its brand of coffees may be
ineffective for a company with no similar name
recognition new to the brand coffee market.
Accordingly, Excelsior
might be better advised
to employ some other strategy, such as a media
advertising plan, to first attain broad name
recognition.
The argument also depends on
the assumption that Excelsior can afford a
promotional plan similar to Superior’s.
However, free samples, price reductions, and
discounts all reduce profits and may actually
result in temporary
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losses. While a leading company with other
profitable products in the same line can absorb a
temporary loss, for a
fledgling competitor
this strategy might be very risky and may even
result in business failure.
Finally, the
argument relies on the assumption that Superior’s
promotional campaign for its newest coffee was
successful. However, the memo provides no
evidence that this was the case. It is possible
that the promotion was
entirely ineffective,
and that Superior remains the leader in its field
despite this small failure. If so, Excelsior may
be ill-advised to follow Superior’s
promotional strategy.
In conclusion, the two
companies are too dissimilar to justify the
recommendation that Excelsior model its
promotional strategy on Superior’s. To
strengthen the argument, the author of the memo
must establish that
Excelsior has sufficient
operating capital to launch the recommended sales
campaign, and that this strategy would
be more
effective than another strategy, such as using
extensive media advertising.
61. The following
appeared as part of a recommendation by one of the
directors of the Beta
Company.
“The Alpha
Company has just reduced its workforce by laying
off fifteen percent of its
employees in all
divisions and at all levels, and it is encouraging
early retirement for other
employees. As you
know, the Beta Company manufactures some products
similar to Alpha’s,
but our profits have
fallen over the last few years. To improve Beta’s
competitive position, we
should try to hire a
significant number of Alpha’s former workers,
since these experienced
workers can provide
valuable information about Alpha’s successful
methods, will require little
training, and
will be particularly motivated to compete against
Alpha.”
A director of Beta Company suggests
that Beta can improve its competitive position by
hiring a significant number
of former Alpha
Company employees who have recently retired or
been laid off. The director’s reasoning is that
because Alpha manufactures some products
similar to Beta’s, former Alpha employees would be
experienced and
need little training, could
provide valuable information about Alpha’s
successful methods, and would be particularly
motivated to compete against Alpha. The
director’s argument is problematic in several
respects.
First of all, the argument
presupposes that Alpha’s methods are successful.
This is not necessarily the case. To the
contrary, the fact that Alpha has laid off 15
percent of its employees in every division and at
every level suggests
that Alpha’s methods may
have been unsuccessful and that downsizing was
necessary for the company to minimize
financial losses.
Secondly, the director
assumes that the former Alpha employees hired by
Beta will be well-trained and valuable.
During
a typical lay-off, however, the best and most
experienced employees are typically the last to be
laid off. By
following the director’s advice,
Beta would probably be hiring Alpha’s least
efficient and least experienced
employees—that
is, those who would be least valuable to Beta.
Thirdly, the author assumes that Alpha and
Beta are sufficiently similar so that former Alpha
employees could
provide special value for
Beta. However, we are informed only that Beta
manufactures “some products similar to
Alpha’s.” It is possible that former Alpha
employees have experience with only a small
segment of Beta’s product
line, and thus have
little inside information of any value to Beta.
Finally, the claim that former Alpha employees
would be motivated to compete against Alpha is
partially
unwarranted. While many of those who
were laid off may be so motivated, those who
retired early from Alpha
probably departed on
good terms with Alpha, and would in any event be
unmotivated to reenter the work force.
In
conclusion, the argument fails to provide key
facts needed to assess it. To better evaluate the
director’s
suggestion, we would need more
information about why Alpha reduced its work
force, what type of workers left
Alpha and
under what circumstances, and how similar Alpha’s
range of products is to Beta’s.
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62. The following appeared in the letters-to-
the-editor section of a local newspaper.
“Muscle Monthly, a fitness magazine that
regularly features pictures of bodybuilders using
state-of-the-art exercise machines, frequently
sells out, according to the owner of Skyview
Newsstand. To help maximize fitness levels in
our town’s residents, we should, therefore, equip
our new community fitness center with such
machines.”
In this argument the author
concludes that the new community fitness center
should be equipped with the
state-of-the-art
exercise machines featured in
Muscle
Monthly
magazine. In support of this
recommendation two
reasons are offered: (1)
Muscle Monthly
contains pictures of
bodybuilders using such machines, and (2)
Muscle
Monthly
is a popular magazine,
as evidenced by the fact that it frequently sells
out at the local newsstand. This
argument is
questionable on two counts.
First, a major
implication of the argument is that the
bodybuilders pictured using the machines in
Muscle Monthly
magazine reached their
state of fitness as a result of using these
machines. The only evidence offered to support
this contention, however, is the pictures in
the magazine. It is possible that the bodybuilders
pictured use different
equipment for their
workouts and are merely posing with the machines
for advertising purposes.
Second, the author
assumes that machines that are suitable for
bodybuilding will also be suitable to help
maximize
the fitness levels of the town’s
residents. This assumption is highly questionable.
Machines designed to increase
muscle
development are significantly different from those
designed to increase cardiovascular fitness.
Consequently, it is unlikely that the machines
pictured in the magazine will be of much use to
help maximize the
fitness levels of the town’s
residents.
In conclusion, this argument is
unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the
author would have to show that the
bodybuilders pictured using the exercise
machines actually used the machines to reach their
level of muscle
development. Additionally, the
author would have to show that the machines were
suitable for increasing the fitness
levels of
the persons using them.
64. The following
appeared in a memorandum from the Director of
Human Resources to the
executive officers of
Company X.
“Last year, we surveyed our
employees on improvements needed at Company X by
having them
rank, in order of importance, the
issues presented in a list of possible
improvements. Improved
communications between
employees and management was consistently ranked
as the issue of
highest importance by the
employees who responded to the survey. As you
know, we have since
instituted regular
communications sessions conducted by high-level
management, which the
employees can attend on
a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that
most employees at
Company X now feel that the
improvement most needed at the company has been
made.”
(
下文思路单一,两段都是谈调查方法的问题,还可以谈后半部分,“采取了
措施就一定
能达到目的吗?”
)
The Director of Human
Resources concludes that most employees at Company
X feel that the improvement most
needed at the
company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two
reasons are offered in support of this conclusion.
First, a survey of employees showed that the
issue respondents were most concerned about was
employee-management communication. Second, the
company has since instituted regular voluntary
sessions for
employees and management designed
to improve communication. The director’s argument
is questionable for two
reasons.
To begin
with, the validity of the survey is doubtful.
Lacking information about the number of employees
surveyed
and the number of respondents, it is
impossible to assess the validity of the results.
For example, if 200 employees
were surveyed
but only two responded, the conclusion that most
of the employees ranked employee-management
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communication as the most pressing issue would
be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no
evidence that
would rule out interpretations
such as this, the survey results are insufficient
to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately
ranks certain issues according to level of
employee concern, the
highest-ranked issue in
the survey might not be the issue about which
employees are most concerned. Why? The
improvement most needed from the point of view
of the employees might not have appeared as one of
the choices on
the survey. For example, if the
list of improvements presented on the survey was
created by management rather
than by the
employees, then the issues of greatest concern to
the employees might not be included on the list.
Lacking information about how the survey was
prepared, it is impossible to assess its
reliability. Consequently, any
conclusion
based on it is highly questionable.
In
conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-
founded. To strengthen the argument, additional
information
regarding the way in which the
employee survey was prepared and conducted is
required.
68. The following appeared in a
memorandum to the planning department of an
investment firm.
“Costs have begun dropping
for several types of equipment currently used to
convert solar
energy into electricity.
Moreover, some exciting new technologies for
converting solar energy
are now being
researched and developed. Hence we can expect that
solar energy will soon
become more cost
efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a
source of electrical power. We
should,
therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new
manufacturer of solar-powered
products. After
all, Solario’s chief executive was once on the
financial planning team for
Ready-to-Ware, a
software engineering firm that has shown
remarkable growth since its recent
incorporation.”
In this argument the
planning department of investment firm reaches the
conclusion that the firm should encourage
investment in Solario—a new manufacturer of
solar-powered products. The basis for this
recommendation is the
expectation that solar
energy will soon become more cost efficient and
attractive than other forms of energy. This
expectation is based on recent declines in the
cost of equipment used to convert solar energy
into electricity and on
new technologies that
are being developed for this purpose. An
additional reason give in support of this
recommendation is that Solario’s chief
executive was a member of the financial planning
team for a company that
has shown remarkable
growth since its recent incorporation. While this
argument has some merit, there are a few
assumptions that deserve attention.
In the
first place, the author assumes that the previous
business experience of Solario’s chief executive
will be an
asset in the development of the new
company. While this may be the case, the fact that
the two companies deal in
vastly different
products is cause for some concern. The
executive’s expertise in the software-engineering
business will not necessarily be applicable to
the solar-powered products business.
In the
second place, the author assumes that the major
impediment to the use of solar-powered products is
the
cost of solar energy and that, given a
choice, consumers would prefer products powered by
solar energy over those
powered by energy
derived from coal or oil. On the face of it, this
assumption seems acceptable; but it may be that
there are other factors besides cost that make
solar energy less desirable than other forms of
energy.
In conclusion, this argument is
convincing. To strengthen the argument additional
evidence indicating consumer
preference for
solar-powered products over products powered by
conventional forms of energy would be desirable.
72. The following appeared as part of a
recommendation from the business manager of a
department store.
“Local clothing stores
reported that their profits decreased, on average,
for the three-month
period between August 1
and October 31. Stores that sell products for the
home reported that,
on average, their profits
increased during this same period. Clearly,
consumers are choosing to
40
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buy products for their homes instead of
clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we
should
reduce the size of our clothing
departments and enlarge our home furnishings and
household
products departments.”
Based
upon sales reports over a three-month period that
indicate an increase in profits for stores that
sell
products for the home and a decrease in
profits for clothing stores, the business manager
of a department store
concludes that consumers
are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather
than clothing. On the basis of this
conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction
in the size of the clothing department and an
increase in the size
of the home-furnishings
department. This recommendation is problematic in
two critical respects.
In the first place, the
author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to
buy products for their homes instead of
clothing is based upon too small a sample.
Data gathered from a three-month period is
insufficient to establish the
conclusion drawn
from it. It is quite possible that the three-month
period chosen is idiosyncratic and not
representative of entire year’s sales. If so,
reducing the size of the clothing departments and
enlarging the
home-furnishings departments may
be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the
data collected during the three month period may
be biased. The fact that the data
reflects
sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is
possible that the sales trend in a particular
location is not
representative of sales in
other regions. For example, sales of clothing in
Florida during the winter months are likely
to
be quite different from sales of clothing in
Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion,
this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A
more convincing argument must provide additional
sales
data, collected at different periods of
the year and at different locations, that
substantiates the trend in question.
83. The
following appeared in the editorial section of a
newspaper in the country of West Cambria.
“The
practice of officially changing speed limits on
the highways—whether by increasing or
decreasing them—is a dangerous one. Consider
what happened over the past decade whenever
neighboring East Cambria changed its speed
limits: an average of 3 percent more automobile
accidents occurred during the week following
the change than had occurred during the week
preceding it—even when the speed limit was
lowered. This statistic shows that the change in
speed limit adversely affected the alertness
of drivers.”
This editorial asserts that West
Cambria should not change its highway speed limits
because such changes
adversely affect driver
alertness and are therefore dangerous. To support
this claim, the editorial cites statistics
indicating that whenever East Cambria changed
its speed limits, an average of 3 percent more
automobile accidents
occurred during the week
after the change than during the week preceding
it, even when the speed limit was
lowered. As
it stands, this argument suffers from three
critical flaws.
First, it is unlikely that the
brief one-week periods under comparison are
representative of longer time periods. A
difference of only 3 percent during one
particular week can easily be accounted for by
other factors, such as heavy
holiday traffic
or bad weather, or by problems with reporting or
sampling. Had the editorial indicated that several
speed-limit changes in East Cambria
contributed to the statistic, the argument would
be more convincing; but for all
we know, the
statistic is based on only one such change. In any
event, a one-week period is too brief to be
representative because it is likely that
accidents will occur more frequently immediately
following the change, while
people adjust to
the new limit, than over the longer term when
drivers have become accustomed to the change.
Secondly, the editorial fails to acknowledge
possible differences in the types of accidents
occurring before and
after the change. It is
possible that the accidents during the week before
the change all involved fatalities, while
those during the week after the change were
minor fender-benders. If so, even though 3 percent
more accidents
occurred after the change, the
author’s argument that changing the speed limit
increases danger for drivers would
be
seriously weakened.
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Thirdly, the editorial fails to take into
account possible differences between East and West
Cambria that are
relevant to how drivers react
to speed-limit changes. Factors such as the
condition of roads, average age and typical
driving habits of residents, and weather
patterns, would probably affect how well or how
quickly drivers adapt to
speed-limit changes.
Thus, changing speed limits in East Cambria might
be more dangerous than changing them in
West
Cambria.
In conclusion, the statistical
evidence cited to support the argument is
insignificant and probably unrepresentative.
To better evaluate the argument, we need to
know how many speed-limit changes contributed to
the statistic and
when the speed-limit changes
were made. Finally, to strengthen the argument the
author should show that East and
West Cambria
would be similarly affected by speed-limit
changes.
86. The following appeared as part of
an article in the business section of a daily
newspaper.
“Company A has a large share of the
international market in video-game hardware and
software.
Company B, the pioneer in these
products, was once a $$12 billion-a-year giant but
collapsed
when children became bored with its
line of products. Thus Company A can also be
expected to
fail, especially given the fact
that its games are now in so many American homes
that the
demand for them is nearly exhausted.”
In this argument the author reasons that the
failure of Company B portends a similar fate for
Company A. The
grounds for this prediction are
similarities that exist between the two companies.
The line of reasoning is that since
both
companies produce video-game hardware and software
and both enjoy a large share of the market for
these
products, the failure of one is a
reliable predictor of the failure of the other.
This argument is unconvincing.
The major
problem with the argument is that the stated
similarities between Company A and B are
insufficient to
support the conclusion that
Company A will suffer a fate similar to Company
B’s. In fact, the similarities stated are
irrelevant to that conclusion. Company B did
not fail because of its market share or because of
the general type of
product it produced; it
failed because children became bored with its
particular line of products. Consequently, the
mere fact that Company A holds a large share
of the video-game hardware and software market
does not support
the claim that Company A will
also fail.
An additional problem with the
argument is that there might be relevant
differences between Company A and
Company B,
which further undermine the conclusion. For
example, Company A’s line of products may differ
from
Company B’s in that children do not
become bored with them. Another possible
difference is that Company B’s share
of the
market may have been entirely domestic whereas
Company A has a large share of the international
market.
In conclusion this is a weak argument.
To strengthen the conclusion the author would have
to show that there are
sufficient relevant
similarities between Company A and Company B as
well as no relevant differences between them.
105. The following appeared in an editorial
from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers
over 200 different courses from which its
students can choose. A much smaller private
school down the street offers a basic curriculum
of
only 80 different courses, but it
consistently sends a higher proportion of its
graduating seniors
on to college than
Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of
the courses offered there
and focusing on a
basic curriculum, we could improve student
performance at Consolidated and
also save many
tax dollars.”
In this editorial the author
recommends that Saluda’s Consolidated High School
eliminate half of its 200 courses
and focus
primarily on basic curriculum in order to improve
student performance and save tax revenues. The
author’s recommendation is problematic for
several reasons.
To begin with, the author
assumes that the only relevant difference between
Consolidated and the private school is
the
number of courses offered by each. However, other
relevant differences between the schools might
account
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for the difference in the proportion of their
graduates who go on to college. For example, the
private school’s
students might be selected
from a pool of gifted or exceptional students, or
might have to meet rigorous admission
standards whereas Consolidated’s students
might be drawn from the community at large with
little or no
qualification for admission.
Next, the author assumes that the proportion
of students who go on to college is an overall
measure of student
performance. While this is
a tempting assumption, its truth is by no means
obvious. If student excellence is
narrowly
defined in terms of the student’s ability to gain
access to college, this assumption is somewhat
reasonable.
However, given a broader
conception of student excellence that takes into
account student’s ability to learn and
apply
their knowledge to new situations, its is not
obvious that college admission is reliable
indicator of performance.
For example,
students in non-academic disciplines could
conceivably perform at high levels within these
disciplines
but nevertheless be unable to meet
college admission standards.
Finally, the
author assumes that savings in tax revenues will
result from the reduced costs of funding the
paired-down curriculum. This is not
necessarily true. For example, it could turn out
that both programs serve the
same number of
students and require the same number of classrooms
and teacher.
In conclusion, the author has not
made a convincing case for the recommendation to
eliminate courses at
Consolidated and focus on
a basic curriculum. To strengthen the conclusion
the author would have to provide
evidence that
Consolidated and the private school were
sufficiently similar to warrant the analogy
between them.
Moreover, the relationship
between student performance and college admission
and the mechanism whereby savings
in tax
revenues would be accomplished would have to be
clarified.
108. The following appeared as part
of a business plan created by the management of
the Take
Heart Fitness Center.
“After
opening the new swimming pool early last summer,
Take Heart saw a 12 percent
increase in the
use of the center by members. Therefore, in order
to increase the number of our
members and thus
our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we
should continue to add
new recreational
facilities in subsequent years: for example, a
multipurpose game room, a
tennis court, and a
miniature golf course. Being the only center in
the area offering this range of
activities
would give us a competitive advantage in the
health and recreation market.”
Because Take
Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent
increase in member usage as a result of opening a
new
swimming pool last summer, the author
recommends the addition of new recreational
facilities in subsequent years
as a means of
increasing membership in Take Heart. The author’s
recommendation is problematic for several
reasons.
First, and foremost, the author
assumes that an increase in member usage portends
an increase in membership. This
assumption may
hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely
to hold true in the case at hand, because it is
reasonable to expect that members would visit
the fitness center to inspect and try out the new
swimming pool.
This would account for the
increase in usage. However, since the author
provides no evidence that this new rate of
usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in
usage provides little evidence that the addition
of facilities such as the
pool will attract
new members.
Second, the author assumes that
the addition of the swimming pool was responsible
for the increase in member
usage. However, the
only evidence for this claim is insufficient to
establish the causal claim in question. While
temporal precedence is one of the conditions
required to establish a causal relationship
between two events, by
itself it is not a
sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible
that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the
increase in usage in the manner required by
the author’s argument.
Finally, the author has
provided no evidence to support the contention
that Take Heart will be the only center in the
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area to offer a wide range of activities to
its members and thus have a competitive advantage
in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the
author’s belief that adding additional
recreational facilities will increase Take Heart’s
membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the
argument the author would have to provide evidence
that member
usage is reliable indicator of new
membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to
show that the cause of the
increase in usage
was the opening of the new pool.
110. The
following appeared as part of a memorandum from
the loan department of the Frostbite
National
Bank.
“We should not approve the business loan
application of the local group that wants to open
a
franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of
ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold
winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice
cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite
is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one
ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack
of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues
fell by 10 percent last winter.”
In this
memorandum the loan department of Frostbite
National Bank recommends against approval of a
business
loan to a local group that wants to
open an ice cream parlor. In support of this
decision the loan department points
out that
Frostbite has a reputation for cold winters and
sales of ice cream decrease in cold weather. This
latter
point is buttressed by the fact that
Frostbite’s only ice cream parlor suffered a 10
percent decline in net revenues
the previous
winter. The loan department’s decision is
questionable for the following reasons.
To
begin with, since it is reasonable to expect a
decline in ice cream sales during winter months,
it is difficult to
assess the relevance of the
fact that Frostbite has cold winters to the
potential success of the Kool Kone franchise.
Common sense suggests that this fact would be
significant only if it turned out that Frostbite’s
winter season lasted
9 or 10 months as it does
in arctic regions. In that case slow sales could
be expected for most of the year and the
loan
department’s opposition to the loan would be
readily understandable. If, on the other hand,
Frostbite’s winter
season lasts only a few
months and the remainder of the year is warm or
hot, it is difficult to comprehend the loan
department’s reasoning.
Next, the loan
department assumes that the Frigid Cow’s decline
in net revenue last winter was a result of slow
sales occasioned by cold weather. While this
is a possible reason for the decline, it is not
the only factor that could
account for it. For
example, other factors such as poor business
practices or lack of inventory could be
responsible
for the Frigid Cow’s loss of
revenue. The loan department’s failure to
investigate or even consider these and other
possible explanations for the Frigid Cow’s
decline in revenue renders their decision highly
suspect.
In conclusion, the loan department’s
decision is ill-founded. To better evaluate the
decision, we would need to know
more about the
length and severity of Frostbite’s winter season.
Moreover, evidence would have to be provided to
support the assumption that the Frigid Cow’s
loss of revenue last winter was a direct result of
the cold weather.
112. The following appeared
in a memo to the Saluda town council from the
town’s business
manager.
“Research
indicates that those who exercise regularly are
hospitalized less than half as often as
those
who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped
gym for Saluda’s municipal employees,
we
should be able to reduce the cost of our group
health insurance coverage by approximately
50%
and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”
In this memo Saluda’s business manager
recommends that the town provide a gym for its
employees as a means of
balancing the town’s
budget. The manager reasons that since studies
show that people who exercise regularly are
hospitalized less than half as often than
those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save
approximately 50% on the cost
of its group
health insurance coverage by providing its
employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on
insurance
would balance the town’s budget. The
manager’s argument is unconvincing because it
rests on several unsupported
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and dubious assumptions.
First, the
manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will
exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is
provided for
them. This assumption is
questionable since the mere fact that a gym is
made available for employee use is no
guarantee that they will avail themselves of
it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda’s
employees do not exercise regularly. Once again,
the manager offers no
support for this crucial
assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees
already engage in daily exercise, the
hospitalization rate will be unaffected by
equipping an exercise facility and no savings will
be realized on the group
health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a
direct relation between the hospitalization rate
for employees and the
cost of their group
health insurance such that a reduction in the
hospitalization rate will result in a
corresponding
reduction in the cost of
insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the
manager has failed to offer any evidence
for
this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that
the cost of building a well-equipped exercise
facility will not negate the savings
realized
on the group health insurance. Until evidence has
been provided to show that this is not the case,
the
manager’s plan is unacceptable.
In
conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to
provide an exercise facility as a means of
balancing Saluda’s
budget is not convincing.
To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to
be provided for each of the
assumptions listed
in the previous analysis.
(少四篇)
新增黄金题目范文:
一.Analysis of Issue Questions
33. “People
are likely to accept as a leader only someone who
has demonstrated an ability to
perform the
same tasks that he or she expects others to
perform.”
People are more likely to accept the
leadership of those who have shown they can
perform the same tasks they
require of others.
My reasons for this view involve the notions of
respect and trust.
It is difficult for people
to fully respect a leader who cannot, or will not,
do what he or she asks of others. President
Clinton’s difficulty in his role as Commander-
in-Chief serves as a fitting and very public
example. When Clinton
assumed this leadership
position, it was well known that he had evaded
military service during the Vietnam conflict.
Military leaders and lower-level personnel
alike made it clear that they did not respect his
leadership as a result.
Contrast the Clinton
case with that of a business leader such as John
Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems, who by way
of
his training and experience as a computer engineer
earned the respect of his employees.
It is
likewise difficult to trust leaders who do not
have experience in the areas under their
leadership. The Clinton
example illustrates
this point as well. Because President Clinton
lacked military experience, people in the armed
forces found it difficult to trust that his
policies would reflect any understanding of their
interests or needs. And
when put to the test,
he undermined their trust to an even greater
extent with his naive and largely bungled
attempt to solve the problem of gays in the
military. In stark contrast, President Dwight
Eisenhower inspired nearly
devotional trust as
well as respect because of his role as a military
hero in World War II.
In conclusion, it will
always be difficult for people to accept leaders
who lack demonstrated ability in the areas
under their leadership. Initially, such
leaders will be regarded as outsiders, and treated
accordingly. Moreover,
some may never achieve
the insider status that inspires respect and trust
from those they hope to lead.
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92. “Government should establish regulations
to reduce or eliminate any suspected health
hazards in
the environment, even when the
scientific studies of these health hazards are
incomplete or
contradictory.”
The stated
opinion is that government should regulate any
suspected environmental health hazards, even if
relevant
scientific evidence is conflicting or
incomplete. While I agree that it’s often wiser to
err on the side of caution, I
think the
speaker’s blanket assertion goes too far.
Government reaction to specific cases should be
decided on the
basis of two considerations:
(1) the degree of evidential uncertainty, and (2)
the seriousness of the risk involved.
The
greatest uncertainty arises from contradictory
evidence. Consider an analogy taken from medical
research,
where one study links caffeine to
increased risk of heart disease, while another
claims there is no correlation
between the
two. Provided that both studies used sufficiently
large and random samples, and the results were
statistically significant in each case, it is
difficult to decide whether to give up coffee. If
the effect in question
were a little sleep
disturbance, then it might be reasonable to
sustain moderate intake of caffeine. But with a
risk
as serious as cancer, it would be
reasonable to abstain, pending more conclusive
evidence.
Lesser degrees of uncertainty stem
from incomplete evidence. One highly publicized
case involved early studies
suggesting that
chloroflourocarbon emissions accelerate ozone
depletion in our atmosphere. Some scientists were
unsure whether the models were correct; CFC-
producing businesses took their case against
regulation to Congress
and the public, arguing
that the scientific evidence was inconclusive. But
of course, waiting for conclusive evidence
could mean the eventual destruction of life on
our planet. The U.S. government wisely decided
first to limit, and
then prohibit most CFC
production. The risks of being wrong in this case
are enormous; today most of the
international
community is working toward the virtual
elimination of chloroflourocarbons.
In sum, I
believe it is unreasonable to give blanket
prescriptions concerning government reaction to
health hazards
in the environment. Where
uncertainty is greatest, and risks are relatively
small, it would be wise to wait for more
scientific evidence. But when the risks are
great, government should regulate against
environmental health hazards,
even in the face
of uncertainty.
100. “If a nation is to ensure
its own economic success, it must maintain a
highly competitive
educational system in which
students compete among themselves and against
students from
other countries.”
I don’t
think it is a good idea to design an educational
system that focuses mainly on competition. For
although a
little competition might produce
desired results, in the long run too much
competition will be destructive. Instead, I
believe that our national economic success
will be better promoted by an educational system
that encourages
cooperative learning among
students, and with students from other countries.
Granted, competitiveness is an important
aspect of human nature. And, properly directed, it
can motivate us to
reach higher and produce
more, not to mention meet deadlines. But being
competitive fixes our focus externally, on
marking and beating the progress of others
with whom we compete. Such external motivation can
direct our
attention away from creative
solutions to our problems, and away from important
human values like cooperation and
fair play.
Indeed, a highly competitive environment can
foster cheating and ruthless back-stabbing within
an
organization, and ill-will and mistrust
among nations. In the extreme case, competition
between nations becomes
war.
On the other
hand, an environment of cooperation encourages us
to discover our common goals and the best ways to
achieve them. At the national and
international levels, our main interests are in
economic wellbeing and peace. In
fact,
economic success means little without the security
of peace. Thus, global peace becomes a powerful
incentive
for developing educational models of
cooperative learning, and implementing exchange
programs and shared
research projects among
universities from different countries.
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Moreover, research suggests that cooperative
settings foster greater creativity and
productivity than competitive
ones. This has
been shown to be the case both in institutions of
higher learning and in business organizations. If
true, it seems reasonable to argue that
national economic success would be similarly tied
to cooperative rather than
competitive effort.
In conclusion, competition can provide an
effective stimulus to achievement and reward. Even
so, I believe it would
be unwise to make
competition the centerpiece of our educational
system. We stand to reap greater benefits,
including economic ones, by encouraging
cooperative learning.
115. “Technology
ultimately separates and alienates people more
than it serves to bring them
together.”
I
believe there is some truth to the speaker’s claim
that technology separates and alienates people.
However, there
is certainly at least as much
evidence that technology serves best to bring
people together.
The most obvious way that
technology separates and alienates people from one
another is symbolized by the
computer nerd
sitting glazed-eyed before his computer screen in
a basement, attic, bedroom, or office cubicle.
While this scene is a caricature, of course,
it’s true that practically everybody who uses
email or surfs the Internet
does so alone,
with only his or her computer for company. And, to
the extent that computer use increases the
amount of time we collectively spend in
solitary activities, it increases the amount of
time we spend separated from
our fellow
humans.
On the other hand, technology has been
a wonderful aid in bringing people together, or,
in many cases, back
together. Speaking for
myself, I can say that I have become connected
with quite a number of people via email with
whom I might never have spoken otherwise.
These include old friends with whom I had fallen
out of the habit of
writing regular letters
but with whom I now correspond regularly because
of the ease with which email can be sent
and
delivered.
A second way in which the new
technology has brought people together is by
allowing individuals who have common
interests
to make contact with one another. It is possible
to find people who share one’s interest in nearly
anything,
from aardvarks to zippers. Such
contacts may be ephemeral, but they can be a great
source of information and
amusement as well. I
would hazard a guess that for each person who sits
neurotically at home, eschewing personal
contacts with others in favor of an exclusive
relationship with his computer, there are hundreds
of others who have
parleyed their email
capacity and their access to the Web into a
continuous succession of new acquaintances.
In
sum, it seems clear to me that technology has done
more to bring people together than to isolate
them.
二.Analysis of Argument Questions
92. The following is taken from an editorial
in a local newspaper.
“Over the past decade,
the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased
substantially. Eleven
years ago, Megamart
charged 5 cents apiece for lemons, but today it
commonly charges over 30
cents apiece. In only
one of these last eleven years was the weather
unfavorable for growing
citrus crops.
Evidently, then, citrus growers have been
responsible for the excessive increase in
the
price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing
regulations are needed to prevent them from
continuing to inflate prices.”
In this
editorial the author argues for the imposition of
strict pricing regulations in order to prevent
citrus growers
from continued inflation of
prices of citrus fruit. The need for such
regulation is supported by the author’s
contention that citrus growers have been
unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in
the past. The evidence for
this allegation is
the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has
increased from 15 cents per pound to over a
dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year
period. The author maintains that this increase is
unjustifiable because
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weather conditions have been favorable to
citrus production in all but one of those years.
This argument is flawed
for several reasons.
First and foremost, the author assumes that
the only factor that influences the price of
citrus fruit is the weather.
Other factors
such as monetary inflation, increased distribution
and labor costs, or alterations in supply and
demand conditions are completely ignored as
possible sources for the increase. The charge that
citrus growers have
unnecessarily raised
prices can be sustained only if these and other
possible factors can be completely ruled out as
contributing to the price increases. Since the
author fails to address these factors, the
recommendation calling for
strict pricing
regulations can be dismissed out of hand as
frivolous.
Second, the author assumes that the
only way to combat increased prices is through
government intervention. In a
free enterprise
system many other means of affecting the pricing
of goods are available. For example, boycotting a
product and thereby influencing supply and
demand conditions of the commodity is an effective
means of influencing
the price of the product.
In a free market economy the call for price
regulation by the government should occur
only
when all other means to rectify the problem have
been exhausted.
In conclusion, the author’s
argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the
argument it would be necessary to show that
the only factor influencing the price
increases is the growers’ desire for increased
profits.
95. The following appeared as part of
an article in the business section of a local
newspaper.
“Hippocrene Plumbing Supply
recently opened a wholesale outlet in the location
once occupied
by the Cumquat Cafe. Hippocrene
has apparently been quite successful there because
it is
planning to open a large outlet in a
nearby city. But the Cumquat Cafe, one year after
moving to
its new location, has seen its
volume of business drop somewhat from the previous
year’s.
Clearly, the former site is a better
business location, and the Cumquat Cafe has made a
mistake
in moving to its new address.”
(原稿空缺)Business is obviously unsuitable to the
location. On the other hand, a bank in the same
location might be
extremely successful simply
because of its suitability to the location.
In
the third place, the author’s claim that
Hippocrene has been successful at Cumquat’s
previous location is
unwarranted. The fact
that Hippocrene intends to open a new outlet is
insufficient to establish this claim. It is
possible that the plan to open a new outlet
was prompted by a lack of business at the Cumquat
location.
Finally, the author unfairly assumes
that one year’s time at the new location is
adequate to conclude whether
Cumquat made a
mistake in moving to that location. Its is
entirely possible that given more time, perhaps
another
year or so, Cumquat will become
profitable at the location. Common sense informs
me that this is a distinct
possibility, since
it often takes more than one year for a restaurant
to establish a customer base at a given location.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is
unconvincing. To strengthen the conclusion the
author would have to evaluate
other possible
causes of the performance of the businesses and
eliminate all except location as the cause in each
case. Additionally, it would be necessary to
show that location rather than suitability to a
location was the cause of
the success of
Hippocrene and the failure of Cumquat.
97. The
following appeared as part of an article in a
computer magazine.
“A year ago Apex
Manufacturing bought its managers computers for
their homes and paid for
telephone connections
so that they could access Apex computers and data
files from home after
normal business hours.
Since last year, productivity at Apex has
increased by 15 percent. Other
companies can
learn from the success at Apex: given home
computers and access to company
resources,
employees will work additional hours at home and
thereby increase company
profits.”
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In this article the author attributes Apex
Manufacturing’s 15 percent increase in
productivity over the past year to
its
decision to equip its manager with computers and
paid telephone connections for their homes so that
they would
access company computers and files
from home after normal business hours. On the
basis of Apex’s experience the
author
recommends that other companies follow Apex’s
example and provide computers and access to
company
resources to their employees. The
author believes that such a policy would increase
productivity and profits for
other companies,
just as it did for Apex. The author’s line of
reasoning is questionable for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that Apex’s increase
in productivity is due to its equipping its
managers with home
computers and access to
company resources. However, the only evidence
offered in support of this claim is the fact
that Apex’s increase in productivity occurred
after the home computers and after-hours access
was provided.
Unfortunately, this evidence is
insufficient to establish the causal claim in
question. While temporal precedence is
one of
the conditions required to establish a causal
relationship between two events, by itself it is
not a sufficient
condition. Consequently, it
is possible that Apex’s increase in productivity
is not related to its decision to equip its
managers with computers and after-hours access
in the fashion required by the author’s argument.
Second, the author assumes that Apex and other
companies are sufficiently similar to warrant a
conclusion based on
an analogy between them.
Even if we accept the view that Apex’s increase in
productivity was brought about by its
policy
of enabling its managers to work from home,
differences between Apex and other companies could
nullify this
result. Lacking detailed
information about Apex and the other companies in
question it is difficult to assess the
author’s conclusion.
In conclusion, the
author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen
the argument the author would have to provide
additional evidence for the claim that Apex’s
decision to provide its managers with home
computers and access to
company resources was
responsible for its increase in productivity.
Furthermore, it would be necessary to show that
Apex and other companies are sufficiently
similar to justify the analogy between them.
106. The following appeared as part of an
article in the book section of a newspaper.
“Currently more and more books are becoming
available in electronic form — either
free-of-
charge on the Internet or for a very low price-
per-book on compact disc *. Thus literary
classics are likely to be read more widely
than ever before. People who couldn’t have
purchased these works at bookstore prices will
now be able to read them for little or no money;
similarly, people who find it inconvenient to
visit libraries and wait for books to be returned
by
other patrons will now have access to
whatever classic they choose from their home or
work
computers. This increase in access to
literary classics will radically affect the public
taste in
reading, creating a far more
sophisticated and learned reading audience than
has ever existed
before.”
*A “compact
disc” is a small portable disc capable of storing
relatively large amounts of data
that can be
read by a computer.
In this article the author
concludes that literary classics are likely to be
read more widely than ever before. The
author’s line of reasoning is that the
availability of books in electronic form and
access of books via the Internet
has removed
the two major impediments that prevented people
from reading literary classics, namely price and
convenient access. Since books can be accessed
from home or work via computers at little or no
cost, the author
believes that significant
changes in the society will occur. Specifically,
the author maintains that access to literary
classics will affect the public’s taste in
reading and will result in a more learned and
cultured reading audience. The
author’s
argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that price and
convenient access are the primary reasons people
fail to read literary
classics. While this is
a tempting assumption, it is not obviously true.
For example, other reasons, such as lack of
interest in these books or awareness of them
on the part of the reading public could equally
account for the failure
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to read them. Consequently, it may turn out
that, contrary to the author’s expectation, the
number of people who
read literary classics is
unaffected by their increased availability and
lower cost.
Second, while it may be the case
that access to books at affordable prices has
increased as a result of new
technology, the
author provides no evidence for the assumption
that access to literary classics at affordable
prices
has increased as well. On the face of
it, this assumption seems innocuous; however there
may be reasons that
prevent literary classics
from being marketed in the fashion described by
the author. For example, the inability to
secure the requisite permissions to reproduce
these books in electronic form, or the lack of
commercial interest in
marketing them via the
Internet could undermine the author’s assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is not
convincing. To strengthen the argument the author
would have to provide
evidence for the
assumption that price and accessibility are the
main reasons people fail to read literary
classics.
Additionally, evidence would be
required for the assumption that access to
literary classics will be increased.
113. The
following appeared in a memorandum written by the
assistant manager of a store that sells
gourmet food items from various countries.
“A local wine store made an interesting
discovery last month: it sold more French than
Italian
wine on days when it played recordings
of French accordion music, but it sold more
Italian than
French wine on days when Italian
songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we
put food
specialties from one particular
country on sale for a week at a time and play only
music from
that country while the sale is
going on. By this means we will increase our
profits in the same
way that the wine store
did, and we will be able to predict more precisely
what items we should
stock at any given time.”
As a means of increasing profits and more
accurately predicting what items should be
stocked, the assistant
manager of a gourmet
food store proposes that only music from a
particular country be played during the period
food items from that country are on sale. The
basis for this proposal is the discovery by a wine
store that sales of
wine from a country
increased when music from that country was played.
The manager’s proposal is questionable for
several reasons.
First, the manager
assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by
the wine store reflects a general causal
pattern. However, there is little evidence to
support this assumption. While perhaps indicative
of such a pattern,
the wine store sales merely
demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine
from a country and the playing of
music from
that country. To establish a causal connection
between these events it would be necessary to
examine
and eliminate other possible factors
that might account for this phenomenon. In any
case, it is highly questionable
whether
evidence gathered over a one-month period is
sufficient to establish the general claim in
question.
Second, the manager assumes that the
wine store increased its profits by playing the
appropriate music. However,
this is not
necessarily the case.
It is consistent with
the statement
that the wine store sold more
French than
Italian wine on days when French
music was played and vice versa when Italian music
was played
that no net increase
in sales,
and thus profit, was realized by this method.
For example, it is possible that on days when
French music was
played seven bottles of
French wine were sold and three bottles of Italian
(were sold) whereas the reverse was the
case
when Italian music was played, and that in both
instances only 10 bottles were sold.
In
conclusion, the manager’s recommendation is based
on two dubious assumptions. To strengthen the
argument it
would be necessary to provide
additional evidence to support the claim that
sales of an item are influenced by the
type of
music played. Additionally, the manager would have
to provide evidence that the wine store increased
its
profits by playing the appropriate music.
50