房东网-湖南邮政

Europe's debt crisis

欧洲债务危机


Spot the pattern

看变化模式


Jul 5th 2011, 18:55 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
2011年7月5日 18：55 R.A.华盛顿


HERE'S a chart showing the yields on 10-year Greek debt over the past three months. See the pattern?

本图显示的是在过去3个月10年期希腊债券的收益率。变化模式看清楚了吧？

There's a spike, followed by a decline, followed by a higher spike, followed by a decline to a higher trough, and so on. European leaders keep taking steps to
avert disaster, and each time markets are less assuaged.

有个尖峰，接着是下 跌，然后又是稍高一些的尖峰，接着跌入一个较高的波谷，如此反复。欧洲国家的领导人一直在采取措施避免灾难 ，而每一次
市场都没有大的起色。

The latest spike corresponds to the stalemate over the IMF's willingness to continue making bail-out payments without a new, long-term rescue package in
place (and the corresponding disagreement over how to rollover Greek debt, plus the drama surrounding the passage of Greece's new austerity plan). The IMF
agreed to keep paying, French and German banks seemed willing to sign on to a rollover plan, and Greece got its new austerity programme through parliament.
But it wasn't long before trouble kicked up again.

最近的尖 峰反映了这样一个困境：国际货币基金组织愿意继续救助，但又没有制定出一个长期的一揽子救助计划（同时也反 映出如何缓解希腊债务
各方存在分歧，以及希腊的新紧缩计划能否通过依然有变数）。国际货币基金组织 同意继续提供支付，法国和德国的银行似乎愿意签署资金周转计
划书，希腊国会通过了新的紧缩计划。但 是，没过多久，麻烦又来了。

Moody's and Standard and Poor's have both suggested that the agreed-upon rollover plan might well constitute a default. Since that's precisely the outcome
European leaders were hoping to avoid, this news has sent everyone scurrying to come up with a new and better deal. Meanwhile, Moody's has cut Portugal's
debt rating to junk. Portugal may well need a new rescue package, which will surely include debate over the fate of creditors, which will mean more questions
about bank finances and more brinksmanship. And the European economy continues to slow, even as the European Central Bank continues to tighten policy.

穆迪和标准普尔都暗示，商 定好的周转计划很可能得不到执行。因为这种结果正是欧洲国家的领导人们想避免的，所以这条消息让每个人都急 不可
待地要制定出一个新的、更好的解决办法。与此同时，穆迪公司已经将葡萄牙的债务评级降至垃圾级 。葡萄牙很可能需要一个新的一揽子救援计划，
这必将包括对债权人命运的辩论，而辩论的内容将更多的 是关于银行财政方面的问题和边缘政策。欧洲经济增长速度持续放缓，尽管欧洲央行继续
收紧货币政策。

I don't know that there's any broad lesson here, other than: for all the steps already taken by European leaders, the euro zone hasn't really gotten any closer to
solving the underlying issues of insolvency and institutional weakness.

除了以下教训，我不知道还有什么更大的了：虽然欧洲 国家的领导人们已经采取了各种措施，但是，欧元区要解决当前国家破产危机和体制上不健
全的根本问题 ，确确实实还有很长的路要走。


Global house prices
全球房价

Rooms with a view
一览全球楼市

Asia’s frothiest housing markets are calming down. Is America’s bottoming?
亚洲泡沫最多的楼市不再蒸蒸日上。美国的楼市触底了吗？
Jul 7th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition
THE bubble that caused a global recession has been a long time deflating. The American housing market began to decline half a decade ago and hasn’t stopped
yet. Prices dropped by 5.1% from the year before, according to the latest S&PCase- Shiller national index. Among markets tracked by The Economist, only
Irish homes have fallen further since 2006. Robert Shiller, one of the fathers of the Case-Shiller index, says more hard times lie ahead. Prices may slide another
10-25%, he reckons, as the economy wrings out the excess supply of the bubble years.
引发全球经济衰 退的泡沫一直在破灭，已经历时已久。5年前，美国的楼市就开始衰退了，目前还未停止衰退。根据最新的标普凯 斯•席勒全国指数，
与一年前相比，房价下跌了5.1%。在《经济学人》追踪的市场中，自2006年 以来只有爱尔兰的房价跌得还要厉害。凯斯•席勒指数创始人之一的罗
伯特•席勒表示，艰难时期还在后 头。他估计，随着经济逐渐耗尽泡沫时期过剩的供应量，房价可能还要再下跌10%-25%。

By our calculations, however, America’s housing market has overshot the fair-value mark, as measured by the long-run average ratio of house prices to rents.
Rents are rising: an increase in the cost of rental housing contributed to May’s robust American inflation data. With home ownership looking a better deal,
prices should stabilise. The Case-Shiller index posted a month- on-month increase in April for the first time since July 2010. It was not alone in showing gains.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price series ticked up in April for the first time since May 2010, and the CoreLogic index of home prices, a
favourite of the Federal Reserve, notched price rises in both April and May. The pace of sales has been sluggish but an index of pending home sales posted a
surprisingly large gain in May.
然而，据我们的统计， 通过长期的房价和租金的平均比率来衡量，美国的楼市已经超过合理价值的标准。租金正在上涨：租房成本上升带 来了5月
份美国强劲的通胀数据。随着拥有住房看起来是更好的选择，房价应该会稳定下来。自2010 年7月以来，4月凯斯•席勒指数首次出现了环比上扬。
并非只有凯斯•席勒指数呈现了上行趋势。自2 010年5月以来，联邦住房金融局的价格系列指数在4月份也出现了首次上升。此外，CoreLogic房价
指数（美联储最喜欢参照的指数）在4、5月份都有所上升。尽管销售速度一直相当缓慢，但是住房销售 的预期指数在5月份大幅上升，令人吃惊。

The best news of all may be the ongoing improvement in credit conditions. Delinquencies have trended downward since late 2009. Consumer-debt payments
relative to incomes are at a 17-year low and household credit scores are rising. Banks are still being stingy with credit but households are better positioned than
they were to take advantage of cheaper homes.
或许最好的消息是信贷环境正在改善。自 2009年底以来，拖欠债务的情况一直在减少。相对于收入而言的消费者债务支付创17年的低点，家庭的信用分数正在上升。各银行对信贷仍然非常严格，但是与以往相比，现在各家庭做好了更好利用较廉价住房的 准备。

Cheapness is not a word to associate with Hong Kong, the most overpriced market in our analysis. House prices in the territory rose by 23.9% year on year in
April. The boom may well be coming to an end, however. Like its counterpart on the mainland, Hong Kong’s government is trying to restrain property markets.
A June increase in down-payment requirements is just the latest in a series of measures to cool the housing sector. Sales volumes have declined steadily for six
months, and prices are likely to follow.
但 是廉价与香港无缘，香港是我们分析中房价过高最严重的市场。4月，香港房价同比上涨了23.9%。然而，繁 荣时期很可能已经告一段落。与中
国大陆政府一样，香港的政府也在努力遏制房地产市场。6月出台的提 高首付要求正是一系列为房地产行业降温的最新举措之一。6个月来，销售

量稳步下降， 房价也可能随之下降。

China’s roaring property markets aren’t the only ones in Asia to face a slowdown. In Singapore annual price growth dropped from nearly 18% in the fourth
quarter of 2010 to 10% in the second quarter of this year. In Australia boom has turned to outright decline. With commodity markets softening, prices have
sagged in resource-dependent cities like Brisbane and Perth. South Africa’s once-buoyant market has likewise flipped from rapid growth to retreat.
中国蓬勃发展的房地产市场并不是亚洲唯一面临放缓的市场。新加坡的房价年增长率 从2010年第四季度的近18%下降到了今年第二季度的10%。
澳大利亚直接从繁荣期进入了衰退期 。随着商品市场平静下来，布里斯班和佩思等依靠资源的城市的房价就下跌了。曾经一度蒸蒸日上的南非市场也同样从快速增长变成了衰退。

Moribund markets are the norm in most of Europe but France is bucking the trend. French home prices fell faster than the euro-zone average during the crisis
but have rebounded sharply enough to cause some consternation. The ratio of prices to rents is almost 50% above the long-run average. French officials blame
tight supply but the government has acknowledged the possibility of “overvaluation”. With housing, there’s always somewhere to worry about.
对大多数欧洲国家而言，市场停滞不前是常 态，但是法国并非如此。在经济危机期间，法国的房价的下跌速度比欧元区国家的平均速度快，但是后
来 大幅反弹足以让人大吃一惊。房价与租金的比率在50%左右，超过长期的平均值。法国官员指责供应太紧，但是 政府也承认有“估值过高”的可能。
对于楼市，总有可忧虑之处。

Hope over hype希望高过炒作


A science writer analyses the history of stem-cell research
一位科普作家分析了干细胞的研究史
THE unrelenting pace of scientific accomplishment often outstrips the progress of moral thought, leaving people struggling to make sense, initially at least, of
whether heart transplants are ethical or test- tube babies desirable. Over the past three decades scientists have begun to investigate a branch of medicine that
offers astonishing promise—the ability to repair the human body and even grow new organs—but which destroys early-stage embryos to do so. In “The Stem
Cell Hope” Alice Park, a science writer at Time magazine, chronicles the scientific, political, ethical and personal struggles of those involved in the work.

科学成就不屈不挠的步伐经常越过道德思想的进步，至少最初让人挣扎在取义之上：心脏移植手术是否符合伦理道 德，或者试管婴儿是否值得向往。
过去三十年来，科学家们已经开始研究一个医学分支，该分支提供了惊 人的希望（能够修复人体，甚至长出新器官），但是这个分支做到这点要破
坏早期胚胎。在《时代》杂志 的科普作家爱丽丝•帕克所写的《干细胞的希望》中，记载了那些参与这项工作的人在科学、政治、伦理和个人方 面的
斗争。

Embryonic stem cells are pluripotent: they have the ability to change into any one of the 200-odd types of cell that compose the human body; but they can do
so only at a very early stage. Once the bundle has reached more than about 150 cells, they start to specialise. Research into repairing severed spinal cords or
growing new hearts has thus needed a supply of stem cells that come from entities that, given a more favourable environment, could instead grow into a baby.

胚胎干细胞是多能的干细胞：它们有能力转变为构成人体的20 0多种类型细胞中的任何一种；但它们只能在非常早期的阶段做到这点。一旦分裂的
细胞束已达到大约1 50个细胞以上，它们就开始专门分化成一种类型的细胞了。因此，修复断开的脊髓或长出新的心脏的研究需要提 供来自实体的
干细胞，假如赋予这个实体更加有利的环境，那么它可以成长为一名婴儿。

Immediately after the announcement of the birth of Dolly the sheep—the clone of an adult ewe whose mammary cells Ian Wilmut had tricked into behaving
like a developing embryo—American scientists were hauled before the nation’s politicians who were uneasy at the implication that people might also be
cloned. Concern at the speed of scientific progress had previously stalled publicly funded research into contentious topics, for example, into in vitro
fertilisation. But it did not stop the work from taking place: instead the IVF industry blossomed in the private sector, funded by couples desperate for a baby
and investors who had spotted a lucrative new market.

伊恩 •威尔莫特将一个成年母羊的乳腺细胞诱发成就象一个发育中的胚胎克隆了多莉羊。在宣布多莉羊诞生后不久，美 国科学家纷纷转向这项研究，
之后美国政要才对其中人也能克隆的含义感到不安。此前，对科学进步速度 的关注让政府资助的研究不涉入有争议的课题，例如，体外授精。但这
并没有停止这项工作的开展：取而 代之的是试管婴儿行业在私营部门蓬勃发展，而私营部门由求子若渴的夫妇和发现了利润丰厚的新市场的投资者< br>资助。

That is also what happened with human stem cells. After a protracted struggle over whether to ban research outright—which pitted Nancy Reagan, whose
husband suffered from Alzheimer’s disease, against a father who asked George Bush’s advisers, “Which one of my children would you kill?”—Mr Bush
blocked the use of government money to fund research on any new human embryonic stem-cell cultures. But research did not halt completely: Geron, a
biopharmaceuticals company based in Menlo Park, California, had started “to mop up this orphaned innovation”, as Ms Park puts it, by recruiting researchers
whose work brought them into conflict with the funding restrictions.

这也是人类干细胞的经历。在是否完全禁止 研究的问题上进行了长期争论，南希•里根的丈夫患上了阿尔茨海默氏症，一位父亲问乔治•布什的顾问：
“你要杀死我哪个孩子？”，南希杠上了这位父亲，之后布什禁止使用政府的金钱来资助任何新的人类胚胎干细 胞培养的研究。但这项研究并没有完
全终止：杰龙是一家总部设在美国加利福尼亚州门洛帕克的生物制药 公司，正如帕克所说，杰龙的外聘研究人员已经开始“为这项孤儿般的创新做
扫尾工作了”，这些研究人 员的工作与资金限制有冲突。

Meanwhile, in South Korea a maverick scientist claimed not only to have cloned human embryos but also to have created patient- specific cultures that could,
in theory, be used to patch up brain damage or grow a kidney. Alas, he was wrong. But a Japanese scientist did manage to persuade adult skin cells to act like
stem cells. If it proves possible to scale up his techniques, that would remove the source of the controversy over stem-cell research.

同时，在韩国一个特立独行的科学家声称，不仅克隆了人类胚胎，而且也制成了特定病人的培养体，从理论上讲， 该培养体可以用来修补脑损伤或
长出肾脏。可叹的是，他错了。但日本科学家的确设法让成人的皮肤细胞 起到干细胞一样的作用。如果证明他的技术可能上规模，将消除对干细胞
研究的争论来源。

Three months after he took office, Barack Obama lifted restrictions on federal funding for research on new stem-cell cultures, saying that he thought sound
science and moral values were consistent with one another. But progress has been slow: the first human trials in America, involving two people with
spinal-cord injuries who have been injected with stem cells developed by Geron, are only just under way. The sick children who first inspired scientists to
conduct research into stem cells in order to develop treatments that might help them are now young adults. As Ms Park notes, the fight over stem-cell research
is not over, and those who might benefit from stem-cell medicine remain in need.

奥巴马上台三 个月后，解除了对联邦资助新干细胞培养研究的限制。奥巴马说，他认为健全的科学和道德观彼此一致。但这方面 的研究进展一直缓
慢：在美国首次人体试验只是还在进行，有两个脊髓损伤的病人注射了杰龙开发的干细 胞。最初促使科学家进行干细胞研究，以开发出可能对他们
有所帮助的治疗方法的患病儿童现在已是青壮 年。正如帕克指出的，对干细胞研究的战争没有结束，那些可能受益于干细胞药物的人仍然病魔缠身。

Wide-spread confusion
价差扩大的困惑


What, exactly, is the price of oil?
石油价格真相调查

Jun 16th 2011 | from the print edition

FINDING out the price of oil used to be simple. A quick check of either of the two main gauges of international markets—West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or
Brent Blend—would suffice. But this year, as oil prices have soared, a gap has opened up between the two benchmark crudes. On June 15th the spread hit a
record: close to $$23 dollars a barrel.
< br>过去，要得到石油的价格通常非常简单。你只需要快速的查询一下美国西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）或者 英国北海布伦特原油（Brent Blend）这两
个国际市场的石油价格基准即可。但是今年，随着 石油价格的飙升，这两个原油基准价格出现了价差增大的情况。 在6月15日，两者的价格差创
出纪录，达到每桶接近23美元。

For years prices of WTI and Brent were locked together, though the higher-quality American WTI oil generally traded at a premium of a dollar or two to reflect
its slightly lower viscosity and sulphur content, which ease refining into petrol, heating oil and other products. Patterns of supply and demand in America, the
world’s biggest consumer and importer of oil, rarely diverged much from the rest of the world, where Brent is the main indicator.

多年来西德克萨斯轻质原油 和北海布伦特原油之间的价格差比较稳定，虽然西德克萨斯轻质原油由于其所产的油粘度以及硫含量更低，更易于 提炼
为汽油，燃料油，和其他产品，从而因其更高的石油品质交易价格会比北海布伦特原油高1到2美元 。同时美国是全球最大的石油消费国和进口国，
其石油的供求状况一般大致反映了世界上其它地区的供求 状况，而后者一般主要通过北海布伦特原油价格反映出来。

That has changed. The contracts for WTI stipulate “for delivery” to windswept Cushing, Oklahoma (population 8,371), which is strategically situated to serve
the refineries of the Gulf of Mexico, and thence the petrol-thirsty northern seaboard. This gave oil firms lots of incentive to build pipelines to Cushing: in
recent months oil has poured into Cushing’s growing and labyrinthine storage facilities.

但如今情况出现了 变化，由于俄克拉荷马州库欣，这一拥有8，371人口的多风的城市是西德克萨斯轻质原油的指定的合约交割地 ，并且为墨西哥
湾的炼油厂，以及其身后石油需求量巨大的北方沿海地区提供石油，其地理位置具有重要 的战略意义。从而使得石油公司积极主动地建造了很多的
石油管道通往库欣：最近几个月以来，石油已经 开始输入库欣纵横交错的储油设备中，而且同时还在不断建造新的储油设备。

There it has stayed. A new pipeline from Canada’s oil sands, which opened in February, and unexpectedly large flows of shale oil from North Dakota’s Bakken
field have coincided with lacklustre oil demand in America. Planning difficulties mean that a proposed new pipeline from Cushing to the gulf refineries (from
where the oil can be shipped abroad) will not open until 2013 at the earliest. Attempts to shift the oil by road and rail have made only a small dent in rising
inventories.

与此同时其它地区情况也出现了变化，在2月，从加拿 大拥有含油砂的地区连通了一条新的石油管道，而北达科他的巴肯地区的页岩油的大量供应
也超过了人们 预期，而且都正巧赶上美国的石油需求不旺。同时由于在规划方面出现了困难，使得原本提议在库欣与墨西哥湾的 炼油厂（从那可以
将石油运往海外）之间建一条新的石油管道最早也要到2013年才能完工。至于尝试 通过公路和铁路来进行石油运输，对于正不断增加的石油库存
来说也只是杯水车薪。

Meanwhile recent maintenance shutdowns in the North Sea have worsened already declining supplies from ageing fields of Brent crude. Brent’s ready access
to seaborne markets means that its price is far more sensitive to booming demand in China and elsewhere. Hence the spread with WTI in recent months (see
chart).

同时最近北海油田的停 工维护也使得布伦特原油这片开采已久，原本已经供应量下降的油田更加雪上加霜。而且由于布伦特原油可以直接 通过海上
运输运往其它市场，使得它的价格能够更加灵敏地反映出中国以及其它市场对于石油旺盛的需求 。所以布伦特原油与德克萨斯轻质原油在最近几个
月出现了价差（见图）

Over the past few days another, more mysterious spread has opened up. The price of Louisiana light and sweet (LLS), an oil grade that feeds America’s gulf
refineries, has detached from Brent too, selling at around $$4 a barrel less rather than its usual premium of a dollar or so.

但没过几天，路易斯安娜轻油（LLS）的价格也开始与布伦 特原油价格出现了偏离，其价格比布伦特原油价格低大致4美元每桶，而不是通常贵1
美元左右。路易安 那轻油是输往美国墨西哥湾炼油厂原油的一种，其与布伦特原油的价差的扩大显得更加令人难以解释。

Even as WTI and Brent took different tacks, LLS and Brent had remained in lockstep. The reasons for the new divergence are hotly debated. Analysts at
Goldman Sachs offer several theories, including a shortage of this grade of oil in Europe (it is of similar quality to absent Libyan supplies) and a general
redirection of crude to booming Asia, without any corresponding rise in demand for LLS.

因为在西德克萨斯轻质原油与布伦特 原油出现价格不同时，路易斯安娜轻油的价格与的布伦特原油价格还是保持同步的。关于出现这种价差的原因也众说纷纭。高盛的分析师对此提出了几种出现价差的原因，包括虽然路易斯安娜轻油在欧洲的供应短缺（路 易斯安那轻油品质与暂停供应的利比
亚产的石油相近）但是需求旺盛的亚洲市场普遍改用了其它地区的原 油，使得对于路易斯安娜轻油方面的需求并没有相应的增加。

These price differences matter to businesses such as airlines, which hedge exposure to shifting oil prices. Long- dated futures markets for jet fuel are highly
illiquid. Much of the hedging is carried out with WTI contracts but the actual fuel is mainly refined from pricier oils. Commodities funds that hold WTI are
also scratching their heads over what to do about buying and selling an oil that no longer reflects the wider global market.

一些行业如航空业由于受石油的价格差影响较大，都会采取套期保值的方法对冲石油价格变动带来的金融风险。 由于针对喷气燃料的远期期货市场
流动性不佳，绝大多数的套期保值交易都是以西德克萨斯轻质原油期货 合约为交易标的的。而对于已经不能全面反映全球石油市场情况的西德克萨
斯轻质原油期货价格，那些持 有此期货合约的商品指数基金也不得不对其进行的有关买卖交易深思熟虑一番。


Middle-aged blues
中年的沮丧


The software giant is grappling with a mid-life crisis
软件巨头努力应对中年危机

COMPARED with IBM, Microsoft is a mere stripling. Founded in 1975, it rose swiftly to dominate the world of personal computing with its Windows
operating system and Office suite of word-processing and other productivity tools. But the company is now showing some worrying signs of middle-age
fatigue. In particular, it is struggling to find a growth strategy that will enthuse disgruntled shareholders.

与IBM相比，微软纯属一后生。1975年成立后，微软发 展迅速，以其Windows操作系统、文字处理软件Office组件以及其它开发工具占领了个人
计 算机世界。然而，现在微软却显示出一些中年疲倦的迹象。特别是，微软正致力于寻找增长策略，好让不悦的股东 们高兴起来。

Grumbles are understandable. Since Steve Ballmer took over from Bill Gates as chief executive in 2000, Microsoft’s share price has languished and the
company has lost its reputation as a tech trend-setter. It has been left behind in hot areas such as search and social networking by younger companies, some of
which love to thumb their noses at their older rival. Eric Schmidt, the executive chairman of Google, recently proclaimed that leadership in the tech world had
passed from Microsoft and others to a “Gang of Four” fast-growing, consumer-oriented businesses: Google, Apple, Amazon and Facebook.

各种抱怨可以理解。自2000年史蒂夫·鲍尔默接替比尔·盖茨以来，微软的股票就萎靡不 已，微软也失去了技术潮流领跑者的名声。在如搜索、社交
网络等一些热门领域，微软被年轻公司甩在身 后，不时还被这些公司嗤之以鼻。谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特（Eric Schmidt）最近声称，技术 领
域的领导权已经从微软和其他公司手中交接到快速增长的、基于用户的”四人帮“企业：谷歌、苹果、 亚马逊和脸谱。

Few would quibble with that. The question is: what, if anything, can Microsoft do to change it? In at least some respects, the company appears to be suffering
from similar ailments to those that laid IBM low before Lou Gerstner was hired in 1993 to get it back on its feet. These include arrogance bred of dominance of
a particular area—mainframe computers at IBM, personal computers at Microsoft—and internal fiefs that hamper swift change. For instance, the division that
champions cloud computing must deal with one that is the cheerleader for Windows, which is likely to want computing to stay on desktops for as long as
possible to maximise its own revenues.

没有人对施密特的观点吹毛求疵。问题在于，微软能 为改变现状做些什么（如果它愿意的话）？至少在某些方面，如因对特殊领域（IBM的大型计
算机，微 软的个人电脑）的优势而滋生的傲慢，以及阻碍迅速发生转变的内部山头主义，微软正重蹈IBM的覆辙——IB M直到1993年雇佣路易·郭
士纳（LouGerstner）后才重整旗鼓。举例来说，支持云计算 的部门必须应对视窗的拥趸——他们很可能希望“计算”驻留在台式机上越久越好，以获
取自身最大收益 。

As IBM’s experience shows, rejuvenation in the tech world is possible. And some observers see encouraging glimmers of progress at Microsoft. Sarah Rotman
Epps of Forrester, a research firm, reckons that Windows 8, a forthcoming version of Microsoft’s operating system, could be a serious competitor to Google’s
Android on tablet computers if the company can get it to market next year. Microsoft is also in far better shape financially than IBM was at its nadir, so it can
afford to splash out on acquisitions such as its recent $$8.5 billion purchase of Skype, an internet-phone and video-calling service.

正如IBM 的经历显示的那样，在技术领域焕发第二春完全可能。一些观察家看到微软鼓舞人心的进步 曙光。研究公司福里斯特（ Forrester）的萨
拉·罗特曼·伊普斯估计，如果微软下一代操作系统Windows 8明年 能够进入市场，将对谷歌用在平板电脑上的安卓系统构成严重挑战。微软的财政
状况也远比谷底时期的I BM要好，所以，近期还能拿出85亿美元天价收购skype（网络电话和视频呼叫服务公司）

That bet and an alliance with Nokia in mobile phones (putting the phone version of Windows into the big but troubled Finnish firm’s devices) show that
Microsoft is trying to bulk up in promising areas. Yet sceptics worry that such initiatives are not the product of an overarching strategic vision, but are instead
tactical moves designed to placate critics who fear Microsoft is drifting downwards. David Einhorn, a prominent hedge-fund manager whose fund holds shares
in Microsoft, has publicly called for a change at the top of the firm, arguing that Mr Ballmer is “stuck in the past”. So far, the company’s board, chaired by Mr
Gates, has backed its chief executive. But if IBM’s history is a guide, Microsoft may yet end up jettisoning its leader.

收购skype、与诺基亚移动手机的联姻——将手机版视窗系统 投入大而陷入困境的芬兰公司产品，都显示出微软正试着向有前途的领域进军。然而
怀疑派们还是担心， 微软的这一策略只是权宜之计，实际上只是为了抚慰那些担心微软正在走下坡路的人们。在微软持有股份的著名对 冲基金经理

人大卫·爱因霍恩（David Einhorn）公开呼吁微软高层换帅， 称鲍尔默“固步自封”。到目前为止，由比尔·盖茨主持的董事会依然支持微软首席执行官。
不过，若以 IBM为鉴的话，微软最终必然换帅。



American economic policy
美国经济政策

Running out of road
经济脱轨

Although America’s recovery from recession is disappointingly slow, policymakers doubt the
merits of another monetary or budgetary push
虽然美国从衰退中复苏缓慢地令人失望，政策制定者怀疑其它货币或预算刺激的优点


THIS month America will reach two economic milestones. The Federal Reserve’s “quantitative
easing”, or QE—loosening monetary policy by buying bonds with newly created money—will
draw to a close. And the recovery QE was designed to spur will reach its second anniversary.

这个月，美国将努力争取两项经济里程碑。美联储的“量化宽松”政策，或QE--- 通过用新造
的货币来购买债券而放宽货币政策--- 将渐近尾声。策划用来刺激经济的“量化宽松”政策
（QE）恢复将达到两周年。

Yet no one will be celebrating at next week’s meeting of the Fed, where officials are almost certain
to reiterate that the $$600 billion programme of bond purchases will end this month. For all the
monetary and fiscal stimulus applied to the economy, the recovery has been a disappointment.
Though the chance of renewed recession is slim, in a dreary rerun of last year a promising
acceleration in hiring and spending is fizzling.

然而，没有人会在美联储下周会议上对两 周年进行纪念，而官员往往肯定会重申债券购买的
6000亿美元计划将于这个月底结束。因为所有应用 于经济的货币和财政刺激计划，经济复
苏一直使大家失望异常。虽然再度衰退的可能性很小，但是，去年 承诺在雇佣和消费方面加
速方面令人沮丧的重演以失败而告终。

Since recession ended in June 2009, GDP growth has averaged 2.8%, roughly its long-term trend.
After so deep a slump, the pace is usually much faster. The gap between actual and potential GDP
has been stuck at around 5% since late 2009 (see chart 1). From some angles, the picture is even
worse. Measured by totting up income rather than spending, the economy is no bigger than in
2006. The proportion of working-age people with jobs is lower than in the trough of the recession.

自2009年6月金融危机结束以来，国内生产总值增长达到平均2.8%, 大体上是其长期趋势。< br>经历这么严重的衰落之后，通常这速度要快得多。实际国内生产总值和潜在国内生产总值之

间的差距自2009年底以来一直困在了5%左右（见图表1）. 从某些角度来讲，情况甚至更
糟糕。通过合计收入而不是消费来计算，现在的经济相比于2006年大不了多少。有工作的
工薪阶层 人口的比例还是低于经济衰退低谷时的比例。

This week Larry Summers, who until December was Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser,
gave warning that America was halfway through a lost decade similar to Japan’s in the 1990s.
Back then American policymakers were keen to lecture the Japanese on how to escape their
predicament. Tim Geithner, then a Treasury official and now the Treasury secretary, would press
his Japanese counterparts for more fiscal stimulus. Ben Bernanke, then an academic and now the
Fed’s chairman, called the Bank of Japan’s failure to cure deflation a case of “self-induced
paralysis”.

直至十二月还是巴拉克•奥巴马（Barack Obama）的首席经济顾问的拉里•萨默斯（Larry
Summers）这个星期警告说，美国正 在经历类似于日本20世纪90年代时迷惘十年的中途点
上。那时美国决策者们曾敏锐地向日本人告诫如 何摆脱困境。时任财政部官员，现在是财政
部长的蒂莫西·盖特纳（Tim Geithner）曾因需 要更多财政刺激而向日本同行施压。曾是学者，
现为美联储主席的本•伯南克（Ben Bernanke）曾把日本银行未能处理通货紧缩称为“自我瘫
痪”案例。

Japanese lessons
日本的教训

Indeed, America’s initial response to its own crisis and recession drew on the lessons from Japan.
About $$1.2 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been injected since Mr Obama took office. The Fed cut
interest rates to nearly zero and then, in two rounds of QE, bought $$2.3 trillion of government and
mortgage-backed bonds.

确实，美国对其自身的经济危机和衰退的最初反应借鉴了日本的教训。自奥巴马上台以来，
大约已经投 入1.2万亿美元的财政刺激。美联储把利率降至了接近零，然后，两轮的量化宽
松政策（QE），购买 了2.3万亿美元的政府和抵押贷款支持的债券。

But lately American leaders have shown signs of the inertia for which they used to berate Japan.
Mr Obama has suggested extending a cut in employees’ Social Security tax, enacted in December,
but most of his, and Republicans’, attention is now given to cutting the budget deficit. Fed
officials who enthusiastically backed QE have little taste for more.

但最近，美国领导人所显示出的不想改变的迹象正是他们当初痛斥日本的原因 。奥巴马先生
已经建议延长十二月颁布的雇员社会安全税的削减，但他和共和党人最多的注意力集中在削
减预算赤字。积极支持量化宽松政策（QE）的美联储官员对此不再感兴趣。

Since the Depression American governments have considered it their duty to use macroeconomic
policy to reduce unemployment. That duty was codified in the Employment Act of 1946.
Henceforth, says Brad DeLong, an economic historian at the University of California, Berkeley,
“an administration that failed to achieve acceptable macroeconomic performance was a failed

administration.”

自从大萧条以 来，美国政府一直认为他们有责任使用宏观经济政策来减少失业率。这个职责
就被编纂在1946年的就 业法里。加州大学伯克利分校的经济历史学家布拉德•德隆（Brad
DeLong）说道，从此以后 ，“未能获得令人满意的宏观经济运作情况的政府就是一个失败的
政府。”

Later policymakers learned they could not pursue higher employment if it meant fuelling inflation
with slack monetary policy or crowding out private investment with public borrowing. Neither is
happening today. The lack of appetite for further stimulus has more to do with a belief,
particularly among Republicans, that intervention on the present scale is both ineffective and
dangerous. John Boehner, the speaker of the House of Representatives, says: “Many of our
problems can be traced to a misguided belief…that [the economy] can be controlled or
micromanaged.” Mitt Romney, the front-runner for the party’s presidential nomination, said in a
candidates’ debate on June 13th that Mr Obama “didn’t create the recession, but he made it worse
and longer.”

后来，政策制定者们了解到，假如这意味着用不景气的货币政策刺激通货 膨胀或用公共借款
排挤私人投资的话，他们就不能追求更高的就业率。现在这两项没有一项发生。对进一 步刺
激缺乏欲望同一种信念有着极大的关系，特别是共和党人。在目前范围内的干预既无效又危
险。众议院议长约翰•博納（John Boehner）说道：“我们的许多问题可以追溯到一个错误的
信念...就是经济能被控制或微观管理。”该党总统候选人提名的竞争领先者米特•罗尼（Mitt
Romney）说道，在6月13日的候选人辩论中，奥巴马先生“没有创造经济衰退，但他使得
经济 衰退越来越糟糕而且延续时间越来越长。”

Those views have won academic backing from John Taylor, an economist at Stanford University.
Mr Taylor traces the economy’s ailments to the abandonment of predictable, rules-based fiscal and
monetary policies. The bail-outs and stimulus of George Bush junior and Mr Obama, and the
Fed’s emergency lending and QE, he argues, sowed paralysing uncertainty. He believes that deep
spending cuts would reverse this effect and thus generate private spending and growth.

那些观点获得了斯坦福大学的经济学家约翰•泰勒（John Taylor）的学术支持。泰勒先生从
查考经济小病到可断言的,以原则为基础的财政和货币政策的放弃。 他认为，小乔治•布什
和 奥巴马总统的紧急援助和财政刺激以及美联储的紧急贷款和量化宽松政策（QE）激起了
经济瘫痪的不确 定性。他相信削减深层次开支将彻底改变这种影响并因此引起私人消费和经
济增长。

For this there is only tenuous empirical support when interest rates are close to zero. A stronger
case against further fiscal easing comes from Carmen Reinhart of the Peterson Institute. In the 15
crises she studied with her husband, Vincent Reinhart of the American Enterprise Institute, policy
responses varied widely but the result did not: prolonged, subpar growth. The reason was that the
crises had a common cause: excessive debt that could be corrected only by a long period of
deleveraging. American households have made a start on this, but their debts are still far above the
pre-2000 trend (see chart 2). Mrs Reinhart thinks more fiscal stimulus merely postpones the

necessary adjustment, because it replaces private debt with even greater public borrowing.

对于这一点，当利率接近零时，只有微弱的经验方面的支持。一个 强有力的事例反对进一步
财政宽松政策来自彼得森研究所的卡门•莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）。在她与美国企业研究
所工作的丈夫文森特•莱因哈特（Vincent Rein hart）研究的15次经济危机中，政策反应差别
巨大但结果并不大：持续时间长的，低标准增长。理 由就是这些危机有着一个共同的原因：
过多的债务只能通过长期的去杠杆作用来纠正。在这点上，美国家 庭已经作出了一个表率作
用，但他们的债务仍然远远高于2000年以前的趋势（见图表2）。莱因哈特 夫人认为更多的
财政刺激只是延缓了必要的调整，因为这只是用数目更大的公共借款取代了私人债务而已 。

The euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis has reminded governments everywhere that heavy public
debt risks more than just crowding out private investment. It can, in the extreme, bring on
insolvency.

欧元区的主权债务危机已经提醒了各国政府，那就 是沉重的公共债务将冒不仅仅是排挤私人
投资的风险。在极端情况下，沉重的公共债务可能引起政府破产 。



The chances of a Greek-style crisis in America are low, given the dollar’s reserve-currency status,
but not zero. On today’s trends America’s debt is rising unsustainably. By 2016 its overall
government deficit will be 6% of GDP, the IMF estimates, well above the comfort level for debt
stability. Almost none of that deficit will be the product of the economic cycle (see chart 3).

在美国，考虑 到美元的储备货币地位，希腊式危机的可能性很低，但不为零。以现在的趋势，
美国的债务正在不可持续 地增长。国际货币基金组织估计，截止到2016年，美国总的政府
赤字将达到国内生产总值的6％，远 远高于债务稳定的舒适程度。政府赤字中没有一件事物
将是经济周期的产物（见图表3）。

The merits of more fiscal stimulus have been fiercely debated inside the Obama administration.
Christina Romer, who was chairman of Mr Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, argues that
near-term fiscal stimulus, by boosting employment and income, lessens the pressure on
households to pay down debt whereas premature austerity could worsen the cycle of weaker
growth and deleveraging.

更多财政刺激的优点在奥巴 马政府内已经进行了激烈地辩论。曾是奥巴马经济顾问委员会主
席的克里斯蒂娜•罗默（Christi na Romer）认为，凭借提高就业率和收入，短期财政刺激减轻
偿还债务对家庭的压力，而不成熟 的紧缩可能恶化疲软增长和去杠杆化作用的周期。

Since Mrs Romer and Mr Summers left the White House last year, however, the opposite view has
gained. In a recent meeting an official repeatedly told reporters that the administration’s focus on
deficit reduction was necessary to maintain confidence. This may be as much a concession to
political reality as a statement of economic preference. The White House is negotiating deficit cuts
of between $$1 trillion and $$4 trillion in the next 10-12 years to win Republicans’ agreement on

raising the limit on federal debt. Without an increase, the Treasury would be unable to pay some of
its bills come August 2nd.

由于去年罗默夫人（Mrs Romer）和萨默斯先生（Mr Summers）离开了白 宫，然而，截然相
反的观点已经取得了。在最近的一次会议上，一位官员再次告诉记者，政府对削减赤字 的重
点是要保持信心。这可能更多是作为经济优惠声明而对政治现实的一种认可(承认)。白宫正
在谈判在未来10-12年1万亿到四万亿美元之间的削减赤字来获得共和党对提高联邦债务限
额达成 协议。如果不提高限额，财政部将无法支付8月2日到期的一些帐单。

Mr Obama’s advisers would still like to couple short- term fiscal stimulus with longer-term
tightening. Recently officials have suggested extending the payroll tax cut agreed on last
December, which is due to expire at the end of 2011, for a year. Mr Summers has called for a cut
in employers’ payroll tax, too. Administration officials think either could be part of a package that
reduces the deficit over ten years and raises the debt ceiling. But it is unclear whether Republicans
will go along.

奥巴马总统的顾问仍 愿意把短期财政刺激与长期紧缩政策配合起来。最近，高级官员已经建
议延长去年十二月达成协议的一年 的工资税削减计划。因为这个计划将于2011年底满期。
萨默斯先生（Mr Summers）也要求 削减雇员工资税。政府官员认为无论是短期财政刺激还
是长期紧缩政策都将是未来十年内削减财政赤字以 及提高债务最大限额等一揽子计划中的
一部分。但是，目前还不清楚共和党人是否会合作。

The bounds of bond-buying
债券购买的界限

When the Fed meets next week, it is almost certain to keep the quantity of its bond purchases
unchanged. It will replace maturing holdings, but it will not signal a third round of QE. This is
largely because circumstances are less dire than when the second round (QE2) began last autumn.
At the time private job growth had slowed markedly and core inflation (ie, excluding the prices of
food and energy) had fallen to less than 1%, well below the Fed’s unofficial target of 2%. QE2 (or
the anticipation of it) had the desired effect: it initially nudged down Treasury yields, squelched
fears of deflation, encouraged investors into risky assets, such as stocks, and pushed down the
dollar.

当 美联储下周开会时，几乎可以肯定，它会保持其债券购买量不变。它将取代到期的债券，
但这并不标志着 量化宽松政策（QE）的第三轮。这主要是因为形势比去年秋天开始的第二
轮量化宽松政策(QE2)要 不紧迫的多。那时私营就业增长已经明显减缓而且核心通货膨胀
（即，除了食品和能源价格）已经降到少 于1％。这个数字远远低于美联储2％的非官方目
标。量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）（或它的预期）有 着要求的效果：它最初降低了国债收益，
消除了通货紧缩的担心，鼓励投资者参与高风险资产的投资，诸 如股票等，并压低了美元汇
率。

Fed officials think that the economy’s weakness now reflects interruptions to Japanese supply
chains and higher petrol prices, both of which are fading. Growth, they reckon, should rebound to

above 3% (at an annual rate) in the second half of the year. Core inflation rose to 1.5% in May. If
inflation falls back and the economy continues to stagnate, the Fed may consider easing again. It
could do this in various ways, such as setting an explicit target for long-term interest rates,
focusing future bond-buying on particular maturities or restarting purchases of mortgage-backed
bonds.

美联储官员认为现在经济的疲软反映了对日本供应链和较高汽油价格的干扰，这两项的影响
正逐渐消失。 他们认为，增长应该在今年下半年反弹至3％以上（以年率计算）。核心通货
膨胀率五月份上升至1.5 ％。假如通货膨胀率回落，经济继续停滞不前，美联储可能考虑再
次放宽政策。可以用各种方式这么做。 比如，为长期利率设置一个明确目标，把未来的债券
购买集中在特定到期日或重新启动抵押贷款支持债券 的购买。

But for further QE the bar is set high. The benefit would be limited and the costs higher than
before. It would complicate the Fed’s job of eventually shrinking its balance- sheet. Some Fed
officials worry that its holdings of bonds could lose value when rates rise (though that would not
affect its operations).

但，对进一步的量化宽松政策（QE）,限制性规定设得很高。利益会得到限制而成本将比以
前高得多。这将使得美联储最终收缩其资产负债表的工作复杂化。美联储的一些官员担心当
利率 上升时（虽然那不会影响其运转），其持有的债券可能失去价值。

The political backlash would be fierce. QE2 drew heavy fire from abroad, from Republicans on
Capitol Hill and from within the Fed. Some Republican senators cited QE2 as a reason for
blocking Mr Obama’s nomination of Peter Diamond, a Nobel prize-winning economist, to the Fed.
(An uncited reason was revenge for Democrats’ blocking of Mr Bush’s nominees.)

政治的强烈反对将会非常激烈。量化宽 松政策第二轮（QE2）遭到了来自国外，国会山共和
党人以及美联储内部的剧烈批评。有些共和党参议 员把量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）提出作
为阻止奥巴马总统对诺贝尔经济奖获得者彼得·戴蒙德（Pe ter Diamond）在美联储的任命。（一
个没有提出的理由就是对民主党人阻止小布什总统提名 的围追堵截。）

Fed officials can ignore politics as long as it does not interfere with the efficacy of monetary
policy. However, they worry that the backlash against QE2 may have played a part, albeit a small
one, in the rise of commodity prices—by weakening the dollar and funnelling hot money into
alternative assets and emerging markets whose central banks have been slow to tighten their own
monetary policies.

只要量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）不和货币政策的有效性相抵触，美联储官员可以对政治置
之不理。 然而，他们担心对量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）的强烈反对可能发挥了一部分作用，
尽管在商品价格方 面作用很小--- 通过削弱美元汇率和汇集投机资金到另类资产和迟迟没有
收紧自己货币政策的央行新兴市场。

With both fiscal and monetary policy near their limits, Democrats and Republicans alike are
searching for other, preferably cheap, ways to spur growth. They agree that reducing regulation

would help. Yet as far as getting money and credit flowing through the economy are concerned,
regulation is heading in the opposite direction. Under last year’s Dodd-Frank act, banks face new
rules designed to prevent abusive and risky lending. A Fed official has suggested that the biggest,
riskiest banks might have to hold capital of up to 14% of assets, far above the 7% norm agreed to
in Basel 3, a new international accord.

由于财政和货币政策两者接近了 其极限，民主党人和共和党人同样在寻求其它的，更低息的
方式来刺激增长。他们同意减少监管将有所帮 助。然而，只要让货币和信贷流动通过经济而
言，监管就会朝着相反的方向前进。在去年多德-弗兰克法 下，银行面临计划用来防止滥用
和高风险贷款的新规则。美联储的一位官员已经建议，规模最大，风险最 高的银行可能必须
持有资本14％的资金，远远高于新国际协定---第三次巴塞爾協定（Basel 3）所达成7％的标
准。

Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, confronted Mr Bernanke at a conference on June 7th,
saying that the crisis had already shut down the most dangerous parts of the financial system, from
unscrupulous mortgage brokers to off-balance-sheet investment vehicles. “Now we’re told there
are going to be even higher capital requirements…and we know there are 300 rules coming. Has
anyone bothered to study the cumulative effect of all these things?” No, Mr Bernanke admitted.
“It’s just too complicated.” Besides, he pointed out, the priority was prevention of another crisis.

杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon) 摩根大通集团(JPMorgan Chase) 的老板在6月7日的会议上当面对
质伯南克先生，说这次危机已经关闭了金融体系中最危险的组成部分， 从肆无忌惮的按揭经
纪人到资产负债表外的投资手段。“现在我们被告知甚至将会有更高的资本金要求… 而且我
们知道还有300条规则。有谁费心研究所有这些东西的累积效应呢？” 伯南克承认没人会费
心。“这实在太复杂了。” 他指出，除此之外，当务之急是防止另一场危机。

With fiscal and monetary options being closed off, America’s policymakers may have limited
ways forward. But remembering where this journey started, they are in no mood to retrace their
steps.

由于财政和货币选择被封锁，美国政 策制定者可能已经限制了前进的方式。但是，记住这段
旅程开始的地方，他们全然不想重走老路。

from the print edition | Briefings2
印刷版| 精粹2