孔子的名人名言-美国留学签证

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实验结论
In this argument, the arguer concludes that …doing…will lead to …To support
the conclusion, the arguer points out that…In addition, the arguer reasons that…
The argument suffers from several critical fallacies.
自己应该干吗 根据观察和现象
自己改正 根据因果
In this argument, the arguer recommends that … should advise … to …To justify
this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that… Thus… should follow the study’s
recommendation and … in order to …
自己尝试新方法 根据预测 和 假想
The conclusion in this argument is that … can expect to … by doing … In
support of this prediction, the arguer claims that … Moreover, the arguer assumes that
this attempt has … benefits:1) to; 2)to; 3)to; This argument is fraught with vague,
oversimplified, and unwarranted assumptions.
换一个供应商
In this argument, the arguer advocates that … should … This recommendation is
based on the observation that … Meanwhile, the arguer assumes … to be a better
choice … because … This argument is problematic for … reasons.
自己应该干吗 根据其他州的情况
In this analysis, the arguer claims that … should … To substantiate the
conclusion, the arguer cites the example of … where … In addition, the arguer
assumes that … This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
正文：
The major problem with this argument is that …
Another flaw that weakens this argument is that. …
In addition, the arguer ignores several factors that might undermine the argument.
… the arguer fails to consider several other relevant factors that might
influence …
For instance … since … what’s more … etc.
样本的问题：
When samples are used to make general claims about a particular group, the
samples should be close enough in time to the generation they are used to support, so
that historical changes will not invalidate the generalization
调查survey 的问题：
The sample of the survey conducted by the … is vague.
But we are told nothing about the way the poll was conducted and how well it
represented the public opinions..（民意测验）
How many people participated?
The sample of the survey is not representative.
数据的问题：
（平均值）The study revealed, on average, only a small statistical correlation
between
（实验的数据不可靠） the data of the research is unconvincing （样本太小）

the sample is too small to... （光数字没比例）
the ratio of four to six
there is only figures but no proportion of the survey 还是ratio?
Insufficient Sample
If the [respondents] only stand for a tiny proportion of the whole [group], we
should not be so sure about the conclusion that [the whole group…]
The arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization.
It was only carried out in Sun City, but the arguer applies its result to all the
company’s markets while doesn’t show us whether Sun City is a representative
market of the whole markets.
实验组的人：性别，年龄，生理特征
副作用 有的病人会对抗生素过敏
错误的类比：
But the problem is that the two situations are not similar enough to justify the
analogical deduction.
错误的比较：
The comparison in this argument is incomplete and selective. The arguer
discovers that …
However, the arguer fails to provide any information regarding …
respectively …
别的因素：
Furthermore the arguer ignores the possibility that … may … Unless the arguer
also takes this factor into consideration, the comparison is unconvincing.
It is very likely that … and hence… varies significantly.
没有因果：
Confusing causal relation with correlation
the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the maintenance of
the airline has been improved as a result of sending its mechanics to the Seminar,
which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that 就算怎样，也
不怎样
Finally, the arguer hints that … but he fails to analyze the causes. Is it because…
or because … ?
-- -------------------------------------------------- -------
其他：
The fact that … does not necessarily imply that …
First of all, the argument is based on a hasty generalization. According to the
cited studies … which is understandable.
It is very likely that … and hence… varies significantly.
分析常用：
the actual amount of time for doing … respectively …
The survey is based on two isolated examples. The arguer should survey more
hospitals of both types.
How large was the sample
How many people participated?

What extent do this participators improve their …speed?
The arguer fails to indicate the attitude of the residents to the ABC's performance.
循环假设
The arguer commits a fallacy of begging the question in assuming that …
---------------------------- ---------------------------------
结尾：
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the
analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the
argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the percentage
of the affected families and their geographical distribution.
In summary, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading.
In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between …To
strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that …To better
evaluate the argument, we would need more information about …
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable,
the arguer would have to demonstrate that … is the only condition that …Additionally,
the arguer must provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the …
To conclude, this argument is not persuasive as it stands.

范文观摩呀！
Argument 37 The following is a memorandum from the director of personnel to
the president of Get-Away Airlines.

Get-Away Airlines should pay to send them to the Quality- Care Seminar, a two-week
seminar on proper maintenance procedures. I recommend this seminar because it is
likely to be a wise investment, given that the automobile racing industry recently
reported that the performance of its maintenance crews improved markedly after their
crews had attended the seminar. These maintenance crews perform many of the same
functions as do our mechanics, including refueling and repairing engines. The money
we spend on sending our staff to the seminar will inevitably lead to improved
maintenance and thus to greater customer satisfaction along with greater profits for
our airline.
[建议，看别人好自己也要]
In this argument, the arguer concludes that sending the mechanics of Get-Away
Airlines to a two-week Quality-Care Seminar on proper maintenance procedures will
automatically lead to improved maintenance and to greater customer satisfaction
along with greater profits for the airline. To support the conclusion, the arguer points
out that the performance of the maintenance crews in the automobile racing industry

improved markedly after their crews had attended the seminar. In addition, the arguer
reasons that since the maintenance crews of the automobile racing industry and the
mechanics of Get-Away Airlines perform many of the same functions, the airlines
will gain similar benefits from the training program. This argument suffers from
several critical fallacies.
First, the argument Is based on a false analogy. The arguer simply assumes that
airplane mechanics and automobile maintenance crews perform many similar
functions, but he does not provide any evidence that their functions are indeed
comparable. As we know, the structure, operation and function of airplanes and those
of automobiles differ conspicuously. It is true that both the airplane and the
automobile need refueling and engine maintenance, but even here there exist
fundamental differences: the structure and the building materials of each other's
engines are different, so is the oil they use. Therefore, even though the two-week
Quality-Care Seminar proved effective in improving the performance of the
maintenance crews in the automobile racing industry, there is no guarantee that it will
work just as well for airplane mechanics.
Second, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the
maintenance of the airline has been improved as a result of sending its mechanics to
the Seminar, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that
there will be greater profits as well as greater customer satisfaction for the airline. As
we know, customer satisfaction depends on several major factors other than good
maintenance of the airplane. For instance, customers are generally concerned about
the punctuality, the on-board service, the ticket price, the luggage handling procedure
and even the discount, all of which are ignored by the arguer. Besides, the arguer does
not provide any solid information concerning how the airplane can improve its profits.
Unless Get-Away Airlines can significantly increase its customers or passengers and
at the same time cut down its costs, both of which are unknown from this argument,
there is no guarantee that it will
arguer's recommendation of investing in this training program as the only way to
increase customer satisfaction and profits would most probably turn out to be
ineffective and misleading.
In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between sending
Get-A way's mechanics to the Quality-Care Seminar and improved maintenance,
greater customer satisfaction and greater profits for the airline. To strengthen the
argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that automobile maintenance
and airplane maintenance are similar in every aspect. To better evaluate the argument,

we would need more information about the relationship between improved
maintenance and greater customer satisfaction along with greater profits.
Argument 47: The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide
geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A
recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their
houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air
conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both
fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used
either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the
study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money
on electricity.
[建议，根据不科学调查]
In this argument, the arguer recommends that Claria should advise its citizens to
install both air conditioners and fans for cooling in order to reduce the cost of
electricity. To justify this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that many citizens
of Claria suffer from the rising costs of electricity. In addition, he cites the result of a
recent study that using fans alone costs more than using air conditioners alone, and
that using both air conditioners and fans costs less than either using fans or air
conditioners alone. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how
groundless the conclusion is.
In the first place, the arguer fails to take into account the geographical factors in
the analysis. While we are informed that there are wide geographical differences in
the nation of Claria, and that many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity,
the arguer fails to make clear the exact number of those citizens or their percentage in
the national population, as well as the geographical distribution of these citizens. If
only a small portion of the whole population are experiencing the rising costs of
electricity while most families do not have similar experience, then the reason might
be that the former do not use electricity sparingly. In this case, the rising costs of
those families have nothing to do with what kind of electric appliance they use to cool
their houses. Or if only families living in hot areas are spending more money on
cooling, then it is unwise to require citizens living in temperate and frigid zones to
install both fans and air conditioners. In the absence of all this information, it is
impossible for us to evaluate the recommended policy that is intended to help every
household nationwide to reduce their electricity cost.
In the second place, the comparison in this argument is incomplete and selective.

The arguer discovers that using fans alone is more cost effective than using air
conditioners alone, and that using both fans and air conditioners are the least
expensive way of cooling. However, the arguer fails to provide any information
regarding the actual amount of time for using, respectively, fans alone, air
conditioners alone, and both fans and air conditioners in those three groups of
surveyed families. It is very likely that these three groups of families are located in
three very different climatic regions of Claria, and hence the amount of days of the
year during which they need to cool their houses varies significantly. Families living
in cooler areas of the nation certainly cool their houses for fewer hours and hence use
less electricity than families living in hot areas, no matter what cooling appliance they
use. Unless we are certain that the surveyed families live in the same climatic region,
or that they need to cool their houses for the same amount of hours in the same year
although they live in different regions, which is very unlikely, we have every reason
to doubt the trustworthiness of this comparative study. Furthermore, the arguer
ignores the possibility that the families who are spending more on electricity may be
using more electricity for purposes other-than cooling. Unless the arguer also takes
this factor into consideration, the comparison is unconvincing.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the
analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the
argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the percentage
of the affected families and their geographical distribution. To better evaluate the
argument, we would need more information regarding the electric expense relevant to
the actual amount of time for cooling among, respectively, the three groups of
households and the amount of electricity used for other purposes in all three groups of
families under survey.
Argument 57: The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the
president of Pierce University.

town, reveal that both mate and female professors are happier living in small towns
when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the
interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and
improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer
employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot
expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money
invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a
chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers.

[建议，看人家好自己也要]
In this analysis, the arguer claims that Pierce University should offer
employment to the spouse of each new faculty member that they hire. To substantiate
the conclusion, the arguer cites the example of Bronston College where professors
prefer to have their spouse employed in the same geographical area. In addition, the
arguer assumes that this offer of a possible job for their spouse on the campus, no
matter whether it will be accepted, is the only factor that new professors consider in
deciding whether to accept a university position. This argument is unconvincing for
several critical flaws.
First of all, the argument is based on a hasty generalization . According to the
cited studies, professors at Bronston College are happier living in small towns when
their spouses are also employed in the local area than when their spouses work in
distant areas, which is understandable. This fact tells very little about what actual
conditions the professors often consider as important when they choose where to work.
Even if we accept the arguer's assumption that whether their spouse can find a job in
the local area is the only important question that new professors consider when they
decide whether to accept an offer in a university situated in a small town, the arguer's
recommendation is still unconvincing. Only when the offer of employment to the
spouse is regarded as an ideal one and therefore accepted is it likely that the professor
will consider accepting the university's offer. Consequently, it is unwarranted to
assume that new professors will accept Pierce's offer whether their spouse can find
satisfactory employment in the local area.
In addition, the arguer fails to consider several other relevant factors that may
influence new professors' decision. For instance, since Pierce's location is not ideal,
the pay it offers should be high enough to be attractive. New gifted professors are also
concerned about the position they can have and the courses they are supposed to teach
in the new university. What's more, what researchers care most about might be the
university's research conditions such as laboratory equipments, adequate research
funds, etc.
Finally, the arguer hints that the morale of Pierce's entire staff is low, but he fails
to analyze the causes. Is it because the management of the university is poor, or
because the pay is too low, or because the local area suffers from economic
depression, or because the local environment is severely damaged by industrial
pollution? Under these circumstances, offering employment to the spouse would be
ineffective at all for the purpose of attracting more new professors. Furthermore, if
these problems do exist, even if Pierce succeeds in hiring many of the most gifted
teachers and researchers of the country, the general morale of the whole faculty would

remain low.
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable,
the arguer would have to demonstrate that an offer of employment to the spouse is the
only condition that new professors consider on accepting Pierce's offer. Additionally,
the arguer must provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the low staff
morale at the university.
Argument 67: The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to
the president of the Cedar Corporation.

our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city.
In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to
provide meals for people on special diets. Just last month three employees complained
to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience
unbearable. Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a
family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. I
recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and
it was delicious—an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee
satisfaction.
[建议，更换供应商]
In this argument, the arguer advocates that the Cedar Corporation should hire
Discount Foods, a family-owned local company that offers a varied menu of fish and
poultry, instead of the Good-Taste Company, the present supplier of food in Cedar's
employee cafeteria. This recommendation is based on the observation that the
Good-Taste is expensive, that its prices have kept rising, that it does not serve special
diets, and that three employees complained about it. Meanwhile, the arguer assumes
Discount to be a better choice for Cedar because a sample lunch of this company that
the arguer happened to taste was delicious. This argument is problematic for two
reasons.
The major problem with this argument is that the arguer fails to convince us that
Cedar's present supplier the Good-Taste should be fired. First, the fact that the
Good-Taste is the second most expensive caterer in the city may be due to its better
foods, quality service and high reputation in this industry. Second, the fact that its
prices have been rising for the last three years may be due to nationwide inflation or
the rising cost in the food industry. Third, the fact that Good-Taste refuses to serve
special diets does not indicate that it cannot meet the needs of Cedar Corporation

unless the arguer can demonstrate that Good-Taste served special diets at first and
now it refuses to do so, hence disappointing Cedar's employees, and that many or
most of Cedar's employees are on special diets. Finally, the arguer fails to explain
why three employees complained, which makes it impossible for us to evaluate the
overall service of Good-Taste. Maybe these three people are those few on special
diets. Even if they have every reason to complain about the foods or service of the
supplier on a certain day, these three people's opinion lacks the necessary
representativeness based on which we can make any general judgment concerning the
overall performance of Good-Taste.
Another point worth considering is the arguer's hasty generalization. We are
informed that Discount serves fish and poultry, but we do not know whether Cedar's
employees all prefer this limited menu. We can believe that one sample lunch that the
arguer happened to taste was indeed delicious, but based on this slim information, we
can never evaluate the overall performance of Discount.
To conclude, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before we accept the
conclusion, the arguer must present more facts that Good-Taste has indeed failed to
meet the requirements of Cedar Corporation. To solidify the argument, the arguer
would have to produce more evidence concerning the foods and service of Discount
and how they can better meet the needs of Cedar's employees.
Argument 77: The following is a recommendation from the dean at Foley College, a
small liberal arts college, to the president of the college.

after graduation, Foley College should attempt to increase enrollment by promising to
find its students jobs after they graduate. Many administrators feel that this strategy is
a way for Foley to compete against larger and more prestigious schools and to
encourage students to begin preparing for careers as soon as they enter college.
Furthermore, a student who must choose a career path within his or her first year of
college and who is guaranteed a job after graduation is more likely to successfully
complete the coursework that will prepare him or her for the future.
[建议，根据不科学假想]
The conclusion in this argument is that Foley College can expect to increase
enrollment by promising to find jobs for students after their graduation. In support of
this prediction, the arguer claims that college-bound students are increasingly
concerned about job prospects after graduation. Moreover, the arguer assumes that
this attempt has three benefits: (1) to enable Foley to compete with more famous

schools; (2) to encourage students to start career preparation early; (3) to encourage
students to complete their coursework. This argument is fraught with vague,
oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.
One major assumption in short of legitimacy is the causal relationship claimed
between college-bound students' increasing concern about job prospects after
graduation and their expectation on the university to find jobs for them. Students'
increasing concern about job prospects may mean that when they choose which
university to go to they prefer those universities that can offer the majors most likely
to lead to more job opportunities and higher income after graduation. They may also
be more interested in prestigious universities because their students are more
competitive and more welcomed in the job market. As is known to everyone, in a
market economy, promising to find jobs for students is impractical and hence rather
doubtful. This strategy may prove misleading and counterproductive in the end.
Instead of promising jobs to students, Foley College should devote its resources and
efforts to offering more majors with good job prospects as well as attracting more
prestigious professors to enhance its reputation.
In addition, the conclusion is based on a gratuitous assumption that promising
students jobs will make students more conscious in their study. This, however, is
unwarranted. When students do not have to worry about their employment after
graduation, they feel no pressure in their study; as a result, they will become more
passive and dependent and gradually lose the initiative to improve themselves.
Although it is more likely that they will complete their coursework, but when they
graduate, no company would like to employ them. By then the university's promise
will turn out to be meaningless.
In summary, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading.
To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that
college-bound students are most concerned about the promise of jobs after graduation
and that Foley College can keep its promise in the end. Moreover, I would suspend
my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation until the arguer can provide
concrete evidence that promising students jobs can actually encourage them to work
harder in their study. Otherwise, the arguer is simply begging the question throughout
the argument.
even though the two-week Quality-Care Seminar proved effective in improving
the performance of the maintenance crews in the automobile racing industry, there is
no guarantee that it will work just as well for airplane mechanics.
Even if the maintenance of the airline has been improved as a result of sending
its mechanics to the Seminar, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does

not follow that there will be greater profits as well as greater customer satisfaction for
the airline.

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