最新小学三年级作息时间
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上课注意听讲
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一气呵成
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不做小动作
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课前预习复习
家长改作业 家长改作业 家长改作业 家长改作业 家长改作业
并完成改错
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自由活动，看电视，玩电脑，阅读课外读物
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Energy in Transition
The
era of cheap and convenient sources of energy is
coming to an end. A transition to more expensive
but less polluting sources must now be managed.
John P. Holdren
1. Understanding this
transition requires a look at the two-sided
connection between energy and human well-being.
Energy contributes positively to well-being
by
providing such consumer services as heating and
lighting as well as serving as a necessary input
to economic production. But the costs of energy －
including not only the money and other
resources devoted to obtaining and exploiting it
but also environmental and sociopolitical impacts
－ detract from
well-being.
2. For most of
human history, the dominant concerns about energy
have centered on the benefit side of the energy －
well-being equation. Inadequacy of
energy
resources or (more often) of the technologies and
organizations for harvesting, converting, and
distributing those resources has meant
insufficient
energy benefits and hence
inconvenience, deprivation and constraints on
growth. The 1970’s, then, represented a turning
point. After decades of constancy
or decline
in monetary costs － and of relegation of
environmental and sociopolitical costs to
secondary status － energy was seen to be getting
costlier in
all respects. It began to be
plausible that excessive energy costs could pose
threats on a par with those of insufficient
supply. It also became possible to think
that
expanding some forms of energy supply could create
costs exceeding the benefits.
3. The crucial
question at the beginning of the 1990’s is whether
the trend that began in the 1970’s will prove to
be temporary or permanent. Is the era of cheap
energy really over, or will a combination of
new resources, new technology and changing
geopolitics bring it back? One key determinant of
the answer is
the staggering scale of energy
demand brought forth by 100 years of unprecedented
population growth, coupled with an equally
remarkable growth in per
capita demand of
industrial energy forms. It entailed the use of
dirty coal as well as clean; undersea oil as well
as terrestrial; deep gas as well as shallow;
mediocre hydroelectric sites as well as good
ones; and deforestation as well as sustainable
fuelwood harvesting.
4. Except for the huge
pool of oil underlying the Middle East, the
cheapest oil and gas are already gone. Even if a
few more giant oil fields are discovered,
they
will
make little difference against
consumption on today’s scale. Oil and gas will
have
to come increasingly, for most
countries, from deeper in the earth and from
imports whose reliability and
affordability cannot be guaranteed.
5. There
are a variety of other energy resources that are
more abundant than oil and gas. Coal, solar
energy, and fission and fusion fuels are the most
important
ones. But they all require elaborate
and expensive transformation into electricity or
liquid fuels in order to meet society’s needs.
None has very good
prospects for delivering
large quantities of electricity at costs
comparable to those of the cheap coal-fired and
hydropower plants of the 1960’s. It appears,
then, that expensive energy is a permanent
condition, even without allowing for its
environmental